GC=F - Gold Aug 19

COMEX - COMEX Delayed Price. Currency in USD
1,422.20
+3.50 (+0.25%)
As of 8:14PM EDT. Market open.
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Pre. SettlementN/A
Settlement Date2019-08-28
Open1,427.20
Bid1,422.40
Last Price1,418.70
Day's Range1,418.50 - 1,427.90
Volume18,665
Ask1,422.50
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    Bloomberg16 hours ago

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    (Bloomberg) -- A rally in domestic gold prices to near record levels may coax investors missing from India’s bazaars to once again buy coins and bars after little movement in the last five years.Benchmark gold futures in Mumbai have surged 11% this year to as high as 34,893 rupees ($504) per 10 grams on Tuesday, just shy of a record of 35,074 rupees touched in 2013.“The whole world is getting bullish on gold now because of the economic and geopolitical tensions,” said Ketan Shroff, a director at Mumbai-based Penta Gold Pvt. and a former joint secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd., by phone. “People will buy gold as an investment and we may see some good demand in small coins and bars and not in jewelry.”Spot gold surged to the highest level in six years -- topping $1,430 an ounce -- as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran added to uncertainty in global markets and the U.S. Federal Reserve opened the door to an interest rate cut. More gains are in store with Morgan Stanley choosing gold as its top commodity pick on a six-month view. India’s investment demand was 341 tons in 2013 and fell to 162.4 tons last year, according to the World Gold Council. Rising prices will help investment demand and purchases of coins and bars may be higher-than-expected this year, according to Metals Focus Ltd.“These are positive signs for long-term gold demand,” said Chirag Sheth, a senior consultant at the London-based firm. The spike in prices comes at a time when India is entering a seasonally slow demand season after June, so jewelry sales may not be impacted much, he said.India’s gold consumption may rise 10%-15% in 2019 from the 760 tons bought last year, according to Saurabh Gadgil, chairman of the Pune-based PN Gadgil Jewellers Pvt. Despite the current rally in prices, people haven’t been lining up yet to sell their gold and that’s positive for the market, he said.Gold demand in India has been picking up as weaker prices boosted purchases for weddings and festivals and as cash handouts and higher spending during the federal elections in April and May gave a fillip to disposable incomes. The second half of the year is usually the peak demand season in India because of festivals.“At the consumer level, there is bullishness about gold prices,” Gadgil said by phone. Gold has been subdued for the last few years and people who have been holding back purchases -- including young people who have wanted to invest for the last two-to-three years -- may look to buy, he said.Demand RevivalConsumption in the January-to-March period rose 5% on year to 159 tons and demand in the second quarter is expected to be higher due to weddings and the key auspicious gold buying day of Akshaya Tritiya, according to the WGC. Import numbers for the first five months of 2019 also suggest better sales in the local markets. Inbound shipments are estimated to have risen 44% during January-May to 416.3 tons, according to data collated by Bloomberg.To contact the reporter on this story: Swansy Afonso in Mumbai at safonso2@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at psedgman2@bloomberg.net, Keith Gosman, Alpana SarmaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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    (Bloomberg Opinion) -- For years, Russia has been the world’s biggest sovereign gold bug: Even while gold prices were in the doldrums, it doggedly kept increasing its reserves. Now that gold is at the highest level since 2013, the tactic appears to be paying off. The U.S. dollar’s dominance as a global reserve currency is commonly thought to result from the dearth of safe assets. Russia, however, recently has provided an example of how a sizable economy with the world’s fifth biggest international reserves can minimize dollar assets and still do well. So far, it doesn’t have many followers, but gold buying by central banks is going up.Since being hit by sanctions for its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, Russia has had good reasons to rethink the composition of its international reserve. While the European Union hasn’t toughened its sanctions for almost five years, the U.S. has been doing it all the time. The Kremlin and the Bank of Russia consider the risk of further restrictions unpredictable and dependent more on U.S. domestic politics than on anything Russia does. In the 12 months since the end of September 2017, the central bank has more than halved the dollar’s share in its international assets and sharply increased the shares of the euro and the renminbi.These data, the latest available from the central bank, show the share of gold slightly dropping, even though Russia added 274 metric tons of the metal to its reserves in 2018, bringing its total reserves to 2,113 tons. That’s because other assets also increased as Russia sought to insulate itself from Western pressure – and because in those 12 months, the price of gold dropped by almost 7%. Generally, though, the metal’s market performance has, for the most part, justified Russia’s stubborn trust in it.And so far this month, as the price of gold has soared by about 7%, it has added about $7 billion to Russia’s international reserves (assuming no new purchases since the end of the first quarter of 2019). If the price increase holds, gold will account for some 20 % of Russia’s half a trillion dollars in international reserves, approaching the dollar’s share. The dollar, of course, remains the world’s biggest reserve currency, and gold and other currencies aren’t exactly displacing it worldwide. But then, the World Gold Council has noted an upward trend in net gold purchases by central banks that goes way beyond the Russian effort – even through Russia remains the biggest buyer. In the first quarter of 2019, central banks bought a record amount of gold, 715.7 metric tons.China has its own problems with the U.S. and with the dollar. While it can’t cut its enormous dollar assets as decisively as Russia has reduced its smaller ones, it has gone for a gradual reduction. And it has shown an increased interest in gold.Other significant gold buyers include Turkey and India -- the latter, like China and Russia, a member of the global top 10 by international reserves.Low U.S. interest rates, the Trump administration’s unpredictable combativeness and insatiable appetite for debt, and geopolitical instability are making gold look like a safer asset than U.S. debt instruments. A few more years of this, and it’s possible that more countries’ international reserves will be structured like Russia’s.President Vladimir Putin’s regime moved first among big reserve holders to phase out the dollar because it had the biggest reasons to fear the U.S. The current and future U.S. administrations should tread carefully to avoid giving others similar incentives to kick their dollar habit and follow the Kremlin’s example. While Russia’s economic management in general leaves much to be desired, the country’s approach to building international reserves is looking more and more prescient.To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.netThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • BlackRock Sees Gold Ending Year Higher on Fed's Dovish Pivot
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    (Bloomberg) -- Gold’s rally to the highest since 2013 may have room to run further after the Federal Reserve indicated a readiness to cut borrowing costs, which would keep real rates low and weigh on the dollar, according to BlackRock Inc.“Gold could end the year higher,” Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager at the $27 billion BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, said in an interview. “If we continue to see a pivot toward easier monetary policy from the Fed, then I think gold can go higher from here,” he said, adding that there is likely to be some pullback and consolidation in the near-term.Gold is back in the limelight as investors seek havens amid slowing global growth due to the fallout from the U.S.-China trade dispute and as central banks globally adopt a more dovish tone. While the Fed left its key rate unchanged on Wednesday, it dropped a reference to being “patient” on borrowing costs and forecast a larger miss of their 2% inflation target this year. The greenback weakened to erase its 2019 gains.“If easier policy from the Fed contains the dollar, that’s an environment, all else equal, that is supportive of gold,” Koesterich said last week in a phone interview after the central bank’s decision. “What I’d add is if we get a situation where the Fed is easing perhaps more than people thought because trade frictions are rising, that might be a particularly strong period for gold.”The Fed would be easing at the same time as volatility would be rising and demand from investors for hedges would be going up, he said.Spot gold rose as much as 0.8% to $1,411.23 an ounce and traded at $1,406.02 at 7:12 a.m. in London. Prices surged to $1,411.63 on Friday, the highest level in more than five years. Citigroup Inc. said Thursday that the enthusiasm is justified, with $1,500 to $1,600 possible in the next 12 months under a bullish-case scenario that includes borrowing costs falling below zero.The Fed last cut rates in 2008 and began its most recent tightening cycle at the end of 2015, with four hikes last year. The so-called dot plot, which the U.S. central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows that policy makers are divided for the remainder of 2019. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week paved the way for a rate cut, and counterparts in Australia, India and Russia have lowered borrowing costs.“In the near term, gold, like bonds, has had a very large move, so it would not be surprising if there was some consolidation,” said Koesterich, adding that BlackRock’s bullion holdings through exchange-traded funds have been “relatively static” over the last month. “But if we are moving into a period where the Fed or other central banks feel the need to ease monetary conditions, gold is probably going to have a better environment than it did earlier this year.”(Updates price in sixth paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Singapore at rpakiam@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Phoebe Sedgman at psedgman2@bloomberg.net, Keith GosmanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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    (Bloomberg) -- Call it the trifecta that gave rocket fuel to the gold market: Powell, positioning and politics.It was Jerome Powell’s signal that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to lowering interest rates and a brewing conflict between Iran and the U.S. that lit a spark in the market, burnishing gold’s credentials as a hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar. It was enough for gold to break through a long-term technical resistance at $1,350 an ounce, which unleashed a wave of short-covering and momentum buying.In a world where many competing safe-haven assets such as government bonds are offering negative rates and the yield curve is pointing to a recession, gold is looking like an good bet. Now, all eyes are on investors who must weigh up whether to chase prices higher or cash in on the rally.“There’s been gold-friendly news all around,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, said by phone from Copenhagen. “Those who have bought in the past few weeks will need reassurance that they haven’t just entered at the top of the market."Gold ended the week trading near $1,400 and recorded the biggest weekly gain in three years.There are a lot of newcomers to the gold rally. Investors poured almost $3 billion into exchange-traded funds linked to the metal so far this month, which could be the biggest inflow since January.But technical indicators signal that the market is getting overheated. The relative strength index is deep in overbought territory, and investors may soon decide to take profit unless there are fresh external catalysts to help keep the rally going, Hansen said.Here are a few key things likely to drive sentiment through the rest of the month:Economy WatchAny further signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy could help prop up the case for an interest-rate cut, thereby boosting gold’s appeal. After reports on Friday showing U.S. manufacturing was on the cusp of contraction in June, GDP data and consumer confidence figures will be closely watched next week.The Iran SituationSo far, gold’s rally has been driven mainly by the Fed’s dovish pivot, but a further deterioration in U.S. relations with Iran could fuel a fresh round of haven buying. U.S. officials say Iran is rejecting efforts to resolve the dispute through diplomatic channels, raising the possibility of military action that would have immediate and far-reaching political and economic consequences in the Middle East.Trump and Xi at G-20Trump is due to meet with Xi Jinping at the end of the G-20 Summit with hopes of reviving talks on a trade deal. Failing to get the two sides back on track could stoke worries about the trajectory of global growth.“Gold is very friendly towards recession,” Saxo Bank’s Hansen said.To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Burton in London at mburton51@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at lthomasson@bloomberg.net, Dylan GriffithsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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