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Speed of Saudi Oil Recovery In Focus After Record Supply Loss

(Bloomberg) -- All eyes are on how fast Saudi Arabia can restore production after this weekend’s devastating strike on key facilities, which knocked out roughly 5% of global supply and triggered a record surge in oil prices.Significant volumes could come back within days, people familiar with the matter said over the weekend, adding that it could still take weeks to restore full capacity. Industry consultant Energy Aspects estimated that the country will be able to restore almost half the lost production as early as Monday. Saudi Aramco said Saturday that it would provide an update in about 48 hours. It didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment Monday.“We need to know if it’s a 48-hour outage or if it’s a four-week outage,” Ashley Peterson, a senior oil market analyst at Stratas Advisors, said on Bloomberg TV. “That’s really what’s going to drive prices.”The estimated 5.7 million barrels a day of lost Saudi oil is the single biggest sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi supply in August 1990 and Iranian output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the International Energy Agency.Here’s How Asian Governments Are Reacting to the Aramco AttackIn addition to the immediate loss of supply, the attack raised the specter of U.S. retaliation against Iran, which it blamed for the strike. While Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for the strike, which they said was carried out by a swarm of 10 drones, several administration officials Sunday said they had substantial evidence Iran was directly responsible. President Donald Trump tweeted the U.S. is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran was the real source.Brent oil, the global benchmark, jumped more than 19% when markets opened Monday. In dollar terms, the nearly $12 a barrel surge was the biggest intraday rise since trading began in 1988. Futures paired those gains to trade up $6.47, or 11%, at $66.69 a barrel as of 6:48 a.m. in London.“We expect oil to rise by more than 5% in the short term or more than 20% if impact is protracted,” analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. wrote in a note. “But much depends on what Aramco says around how quickly production can be restored.”The attack Saturday struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais, exposing a vulnerability at the heart of the global oil market.“No matter whether it takes Saudi Arabia five days or a lot longer to get oil back into production, there is but one rational takeaway from this weekend’s drone attacks on the Kingdom’s infrastructure -- that infrastructure is highly vulnerable to attack, and the market has been persistently mispricing oil,” Citigroup Inc.’s Ed Morse wrote in a research note.Trump authorized the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while the International Energy Agency, which helps coordinate industrialized countries’ emergency fuel stockpiles, said it was monitoring the situation.The attack is the most serious on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure since Iraq’s Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the kingdom during the first Gulf War.Saudi oil facilities as well as foreign tankers in and around the Persian Gulf have been the target of several attacks over the past year. The escalation coincided with the President Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran and re-imposed crippling economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The Houthis, who are fighting Saudi-backed forces in Yemen, have claimed responsibility for most of the strikes against Aramco installations.Aramco will be able to keep customers supplied for several weeks by drawing on a global storage network. The Saudis hold millions of barrels in tanks in the kingdom itself, plus three strategic locations around the world: Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Okinawa in Japan, and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt.Before the attack, Saudi Arabia was pumping about 9.8 million barrels a day, almost 10% of global production. Aramco could consider declaring itself unable to fulfill contracts on some international shipments -- know as force majeure -- if the resumption of full capacity at Abqaiq takes weeks, people familiar with the matter said, asking not be identified before a public statement.Instead of supplying some customers with the usual crude oil grades of Arab Light or Arab Extra Light, the company may offer them Arab Heavy and Arab Medium as a replacement, according to a person familiar with the matter.A satellite picture from a NASA near real-time imaging system published early on Sunday, more than 24 hours after the attack, showed the huge smoke plume over Abqaiq had dissipated completely. But four additional plumes to the south-west, over the Ghawar oilfield, the world’s largest, were still clearly visible.While that field wasn’t attacked, its crude and gas is sent to Abqaiq for processing. The smoke most likely indicated flaring, the industry term for what happens when a facility stops suddenly and excess oil and natural gas is safely burned off.\--With assistance from Mahmoud Habboush, Verity Ratcliffe, Manus Cranny, Giovanni Prati and Anthony DiPaola.To contact the reporters on this story: Nayla Razzouk in Dubai at nrazzouk2@bloomberg.net;Javier Blas in London at jblas3@bloomberg.net;James Thornhill in Sydney at jthornhill3@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Nayla Razzouk at nrazzouk2@bloomberg.net, Ramsey Al-Rikabi, Ben SharplesFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Oil Jumps Most on Record After Attack Cuts Saudi Arabian Supply

(Bloomberg) -- Oil posted its biggest ever intraday jump to more than $71 a barrel after a strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility removed about 5% of global supplies, an attack the U.S. has blamed on Iran.In an extraordinary start to trading on Monday, London’s Brent futures leapt almost $12 in the seconds after the open, the most in dollar terms since they were launched in 1988. Prices have since pulled back about half of that initial surge of almost 20%, but were still heading for the biggest advance in more than three years.“We have never seen a supply disruption and price response like this in the oil market,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. “Political risk premium are now back on the oil market agenda.”On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were frozen for about two minutes after the scale of the move delayed the market open. They were 9.5% higher at $60.06 a barrel as of 1:39 p.m. in Singapore.The dramatic move in oil reverberated around financial markets. Haven assets including gold, the yen and Treasuries surged on concern over the geopolitical fallout from the attacks. Currencies of commodity-linked nations including the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar also advanced. U.S. gasoline futures jumped almost 13% before paring their increase to around 9%.State energy producer Saudi Aramco lost about 5.7 million barrels per day of output on Saturday after 10 unmanned aerial vehicles struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais.For oil markets, it’s the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to the International Energy Agency.“The vulnerability of Saudi infrastructure to attacks, historically seen as a stable source of crude to the market, is a new paradigm the market will need to deal with,” said Virendra Chauhan, a Singapore-based analyst at industry consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “At present, it is not known how long crude will be offline for.”Saudi Arabia can restart a significant volume of the halted oil production within days, but needs weeks to restore full output capacity, people familiar with the matter said. The kingdom -- or its customers -- may use stockpiles to keep oil supplies flowing in the short term. Aramco could consider declaring itself unable to fulfill contracts on some international shipments -- known as force majeure -- if the resumption of full capacity at Abqaiq takes weeks.That would rattle oil markets further and cast a shadow on Aramco’s preparations for what could be the world’s biggest initial public offering. It’s also set to escalate a showdown pitting Saudi Arabia and the U.S. against Iran, which backs proxy groups in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed credit for the attack, but U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have already pointed the finger directly at Iran.Trump Vows U.S. ‘Locked and Loaded’ If Iran Was Behind AttacksTrump, who said the U.S. is “locked and loaded depending on verification” that Iran staged the attack, earlier authorized the release of oil from the nation’s emergency reserves. The IEA, which helps coordinate industrialized countries’ emergency fuel stockpiles, said it was monitoring the situation.“No matter whether it takes Saudi Arabia five days or a lot longer to get oil back into production, there is but one rational takeaway from this weekend’s drone attacks on the Kingdom’s infrastructure -- that infrastructure is highly vulnerable to attack, and the market has been persistently mispricing oil,” Ed Morse, Citigroup Inc.’s global head of commodities research, wrote in a research note.Brent jumped more than 19% to $71.95 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, its biggest gain in percentage terms since 1991. In the ensuing hours, it pared that advance to trade 10.7% higher at $66.66 a barrel. The global benchmark crude could rise above $75 a barrel if the outage at Abqaiq lasts more than six weeks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note.Trading in WTI was frozen for a few minutes because of a so-called circuit breaker, which is triggered by a gain of more than 7%. When they finally opened, futures jumped as much as 15.5% to $63.34, the most since 2008.The attacks “set the stage for a Monday morning mini-massacre of any market participants holding short positions or bearish expectations,” said John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Ltd. in Singapore. The “price move was exacerbated by the unprecedented magnitude of the outage on the world’s key supplier and the potential for escalation of geopolitical skirmishes involving the U.S., Saudi and Iran.”The drama wasn’t limited to flat prices. The spread between Brent and WTI widened as much as 37%, showing that the oil spike will affect global prices more than those in the U.S., where shale output and ample supplies provide more of a buffer.Brent’s 6-month backwardation jumped to the highest level since September 2013 as the outage raises concerns about obtaining near-term supplies. And the call-put skew flipped into positive territory for the first time since 2018, indicating that options traders are willing to pay more to place a bet on prices rising rather than falling.\--With assistance from Nayla Razzouk, Javier Blas, Anthony DiPaola, David Marino, James Thornhill, Michael Roschnotti, Tina Davis, Stephen Stapczynski, Sharon Cho, Ann Koh, Heesu Lee, Sarah Chen and Ramsey Al-Rikabi.To contact the reporters on this story: Serene Cheong in Singapore at scheong20@bloomberg.net;Dan Murtaugh in Singapore at dmurtaugh@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tina Davis at tinadavis@bloomberg.net, Alexander Kwiatkowski, Andrew JanesFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

China’s Economy Slows Again, Adding Pressure for Policy Response

(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. China’s slowdown is deepening just as risks for the global economy mount, piling pressure on the authorities to do more to support growth.Industrial output rose 4.4% from a year earlier in August, the lowest for a single month since 2002, while retail sales came in below expectations. Fixed-asset investment slowed to 5.5% in the first eight months, with the private sector lagging state investment for the 6th month.The data add support to the argument that policy makers’ efforts to brake the slowing economy aren’t sufficient as the nation grapples with structural downward pressure at home, the risk of yet-higher tariffs on exports to the U.S. and now surging oil prices. Nomura International Ltd. said this all raises the likelihood that the People’s Bank of China will cut its medium-term lending rate on Tuesday.“In terms of policy room, we still think there’s quite a lot for both the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC, but now it’s a matter of whether they want to use it,” Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Bloomberg television. “What I worry about is that policy makers are hesitating at the moment because of the potential implications on the long term impact, so they’re really fallen behind the curve.”The Shanghai Composite swung between gains and losses before closing for lunch up 0.1%. Futures contracts on China’s 10-year government bond erased loss of 0.28% to trade 0.09% higher.The slowdown in output was almost across the board, with food processing and general equipment manufacturing unchanged from last year. Car output rose after declining for four months. Growth in sales of consumer goods slowed to 7.2%, the lowest since April this year, but there was an increase in food sales. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.3% in July, within the narrow band it has occupied all year even amid the slowdown.The record oil price surge after a strike on a Saudi Arabian oil facility couldn’t have come at a worse time for China and a world economy already in the grip of a deepening downturn. While the severity of the impact will depend on how long the oil price spike endures, it risks further eroding fragile business and consumer confidence amid the ongoing U.S.-China dispute and already slowing global demand.Saudi Arabia is the largest single source of China’s crude oil imports, which in turn supply about 70% of total demand.After China’s data release on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, Citigroup Inc. lowered its growth forecast for the world’s second-biggest economy to 6.2% for this year from 6.3% previously, and to 5.8% from 6% for 2020.“We don’t expect a growth rebound in the fourth quarter anymore, with the new forecast flat at 6.1% year on year,” wrote Yu Xiangrong, a Hong Kong-based economist with Citigroup, referring to the quarterly outlook. “In particular, we now hold a more cautious view on the recovery of infrastructure investment and retail sales.”The People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves this month to the lowest level since 2007, though it’s still holding off on cutting borrowing costs more broadly.Some 265 billion yuan ($37.5 billion) of 1-year loans from the PBOC to banks will mature on Tuesday. The central bank will likely roll-over at least some of these, giving it an opportunity to cut the rate it charges.Analysts are divided on whether the PBOC would actually take the chance to cut. Some see the need for more significant easing while the other argue the authorities would like to avoid announcing multiple stimulus at once, and they’ll watch the U.S. Federal Reserve before taking any actions themselves. The Fed is expected to cut rates this week.What Bloomberg’s Economists Say..“We expect policy support to continue at a measured pace as Chinese authorities strive to put a floor under the slowing economy. Yet, officials are bracing for a long war, and are careful not to deplete their policy ammunition.”-- Chang Shu and David Qu, Bloomberg EconomicsFor the full note click hereIt’s getting more difficult to “safeguard 6%” expansion in the third quarter and growth will likely slow further from the pace in the second quarter, China International Capital Corp. economists led by Eva Yi wrote in a note. Not only is it necessary, but there is room to step up the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustment in a timely manner to make sure economic growth won’t slip below the targeted growth range of 6-6.5%, Yi said.There are likely to be more easing measures including cuts to banks’ reserve ratios and the PBOC’s mid-term lending rate, although that cut probably wouldn’t happen this week, said Peiqian Liu, China economist at Natwest Markets Plc in Singapore. The pace of economic slowdown is faster than expected and the impact of the trade war on Chinese manufacturers has been relatively big, she said.Goodwill TalksNegotiators from China and the U.S. plan to have two rounds of face-to-face negotiations in coming weeks. Both sides have taken steps to show goodwill, and U.S. officials are considering an interim deal to delay tariffs with China, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.However, even if those talks do go well and get the negotiations back on track, it may not be enough.“Even a reprieve on the trade front, with U.S. and Chinese negotiators back at the table, will not in itself cure China’s growth malaise,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “There is a growing risk that keeping the reins too tight may push growth much lower.”\--With assistance from Amanda Wang, Tian Chen, Yinan Zhao, Enda Curran, Dan Murtaugh and Claire Che.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Miao Han in Beijing at mhan22@bloomberg.net;Tomoko Sato in Tokyo at tsato3@bloomberg.net;Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, James MaygerFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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Goldman Is Using JPMorgan’s Own Tactics Against It in ETF Battle

(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at boosting its share of the $4 trillion U.S. market for exchange-traded funds -- even mimicking one of its Wall Street foes.The bank is adopting an approach pioneered by JPMorgan Chase & Co., filing for a line of broad-based index products that could start trading at rock-bottom prices as early as next week, regulatory records show.After getting off to a blistering start four years ago on the back of a dirt-cheap factor ETF, Goldman dropped behind its Wall Street competitor, which has ridden a strategy dubbed “bring your own assets” to a $29 billion business.Essentially cloning popular ETFs and moving client cash from those products into its own, the controversial approach may be Wall Street’s best hope for challenging the dominance of State Street Corp., BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group.“As we continue to grow and build out our ETF business, along with our recent acquisitions, it just makes sense in some areas for us to have the building blocks that fuel those portfolios,” said Steve Sachs, head of capital markets for ETFs at Goldman.Even before this latest chapter, the race between the Wall Street giants had enough twists and turns to power a thriller.Goldman emerged in 2015, establishing itself as a leader in factor investing with its ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity fund, ticker GSLC. The product wowed the ETF industry with a fee of just 9 basis points, unheard-of for smart beta strategies -- but newer ventures have stumbled. This year, it introduced a handful of thematic strategies, but they’ve collected less than $50 million.JPMorgan was relatively quiet until June 2018, when it kickstarted its business with a suite of vanilla ETFs called BetaBuilders. Unlike the more specialized products the bank was hawking up until then, the funds tracked broad developed-market benchmarks -- at thrift-store prices.It was an inspired play, tripling JPMorgan’s ETF assets to near $30 billion within a 14-month span and powering it ahead of Goldman.“JPMorgan saw this as a smart move ahead of anyone,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas. “We’ve seen how hard it is to get any assets. But bringing your own assets gets you mojo, and mojo gets people in the door and investors on the phone.”The bank made smart moves elsewhere, winning a foothold in the nascent but growing fixed-income ETF market, and planting a flag early in Europe, whose industry is around half the size of the U.S. but growing rapidly.Goldman has yet to list an ETF in the region despite some high-profile hires, though it plans to commence the business before year-end, a spokesman in London said. That puts it several years behind JPMorgan, which has $2.8 billion in assets there.Now Goldman hopes to turn the tables on its investment-banking rival by embracing the bring-your-own-assets strategy. The firm already has some experience in the area as the largest owner of GSLC, and its latest foray is fueled by a recent acquisition spree. The bank scooped up S&P’s model portfolio business and United Capital this year, giving it fresh pipelines for flows into its own funds.However, the approach isn’t without its critics, who argue there are conflicts in directing wealthy clients to a bank’s own ETFs.“We have internal affiliates in our products, but they are institutional clients and we treat them as such with their own due diligence,” said Jillian DelSignore, head of ETF distribution for JPMorgan’s asset management arm.The bank’s transfers into BetaBuilders have saved clients about $42 million a year thanks to their low price tag, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.Ironically, if Goldman succeeds in moving wealthy clients to its in-house products, BlackRock may turn out to be the biggest loser, according to an analysis of regulatory filings.United Capital’s clients hold some $4 billion in the firm’s iShares line, which could be redeployed into Goldman’s new products. That’s especially true if the funds are cheap.“The advisers -- by being so brutal with cost obsession -- have created this monster of cost migration,” said Balchunas. “By making moves like this, the banks are able to own the end client and the flows. It’s brutal out there.”\--With assistance from Morgan Tarrant.To contact the reporters on this story: Carolina Wilson in New York City at cwilson166@bloomberg.net;Ksenia Galouchko in London at kgalouchko1@bloomberg.net;Elizabeth Rembert in New York at erembert@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at bolesen3@bloomberg.net, Yakob Peterseil, Rachel EvansFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Eco-Friendly Phone Companies Brace for 5G’s Energy Bill

(Bloomberg) -- The next generation of telecommunications technology could be the key to ending years of stagnation in the industry. But it’s also set to create a difficult dilemma for European phone companies.Carriers shelled out $80 billion to power the world’s antennas last year, according to Nokia Oyj. The prospect of having to raise spending on electricity – energy demand could triple with the introduction of 5G equipment, according to industry body GSMA – won’t sit well with phone companies that are already struggling to pay their dividends. At the same time, firms such as BT Group Plc and Vodafone Group Plc have pledged to slash emissions, and that will require a rapid shift to renewable energy.Just as carriers are about to roll out vast quantities of power-hungry gear, they’re also promising to save the planet. And funds are tight. Accomplishing everything at the same time could be a tall order.“If they have set up ambitious targets for overall power consumption and CO2 emissions, those could potentially be in conflict when they start to roll out 5G,” said Jerker Berglund, industry consultant at JB Sustainable Approach AB. “Reducing total power consumption is going to be a challenge.”5G could unleash a 1,000-fold jump in data demand for connecting factories and cars and supercharging mobile devices, according to the GSMA. That’s an irresistible sales prospect for a telecom industry whose revenues have yet to recover from a slump that started in 2015.Next-generation antennas and masts can be 10 times more energy efficient than 4G’s. However, these power savings could get swamped by the surge in demand for new applications. 5G will link up billions of things that have never been connected before. To accommodate all these new connections, masts might have as many as 128 antennas, versus just four or eight on a typical 4G mast. Bouncing signals through cities may require thousands of transmitters and receivers to be bolted onto rooftops and street furniture. This looks like it will all require a lot more bandwidth, and a lot more power.What’s more, carriers can’t afford the cost of swapping out all their equipment at once, Berglund said. The rollout will have to happen gradually, so many masts will still carry less efficient 4G, 3G and 2G antennas alongside 5G ones. This situation could last for years – some 3G kit is still in place 18 years after that technology was introduced.This article is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to highlight the climate change story.Electricity already makes up about a third of carriers’ average operational costs, according to Nokia, and raising this will pressure balance sheets when the industry isn’t in a good place to cope. Vodafone has cut its dividend to conserve cash to pay for spectrum and capital investment. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said Monday they expect BT to slash its dividend by as much as 40% to fund capital expenditure and price cuts.“As we consume more, power’s going up, and the industry is trying to bring that down as much as possible,” said Henry Calvert, head of future networks at the GSMA, the mobile industry trade body. “There’s a lot of activity in the industry about making the power we use more efficient.”But whatever fixes carriers make to lower energy bills – sharing networks, getting masts to autonomously power down at times of low data demand, introducing “beam-forming’’ so smart antennas can pinpoint devices instead of pumping out data indiscriminately – the surge in power usage creates a challenge for meeting emissions goals.Deutsche Telekom AG, for example, pledged a 90% reduction in carbon emissions between 2017 and 2030. In total, European carriers will have to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 6 million metric tons within 11 years to achieve their carbon targets, BloombergNEF analyst Kyle Harrison said in a research note.One solution is for the telecom companies to shift their power supply to renewables, but this can’t be done at the flick of a switch. Clean-energy contracts are complicated and can take years to negotiate.Carriers will be under pressure to sign new ones quickly to cope with 5G’s power demands, Harrison said. They’ll be vulnerable to striking bad deals, and price fluctuations in energy markets can turn some arrangements that initially look good into losers in the longer term. “The switch to 5G is going to put more pressure on telecoms to purchase clean energy and reduce their emissions,” he said. “Many clean energy deals can result in losses for corporations. Telecoms will need to put extra consideration into this as their power demand goes up, especially if losses will impact their investments into 5G.”To contact the author of this story: Thomas Seal in London at tseal@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Jennifer Ryan at jryan13@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Apple has sour reaction to Goldman Sachs' analyst note

Apple Inc struck out at a Goldman Sachs Group Inc analyst on Friday in a relatively rare public dust-up between a blue chip Wall Street firm and its client. The disagreement came after Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall criticized Apple's accounting methods for the tech giant's new TV+ product, saying in a research note that it may result in lower gross margins and profits. A Goldman spokeswoman declined to comment or to make the analyst available for interview.

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