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Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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18.06-0.62 (-3.32%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
18.07 +0.01 (+0.06%)
After hours: 05:55PM EDT

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  • S
    Sachin
    Here you go. Insider purchase started.
    McKenzie, Jonathan Michael bought 50000 shares worth $1.115 million yesterday..
  • R
    Ralph
    Picked up another 200 shares of CVE today. I've been holding CVE for about 3 years now. It has always been a core holding of mine and will remain so. Also, picked up some FRU, BTE and MEG. Really hoping that Eric Nutall has a better view of things than I do.
  • D
    Daniel
    Acquiring again...always buying other companies...seems it will go over Suncor😂
  • w
    wildestone
    Does anyone know the end goal of how many shares plan to buyback? Get float down to 1B shares ? If so, a long way to go
  • R
    Ralph
    when unc Joe stops spigot from spreserve the refiners will want the grade of crude cve can provide
  • J
    Jacob
    Hello guys where do you see this going in 3 months.
    Stay where is it or exploding to 28-30s again
  • N
    Night Fire
    --EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

    --RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

    --August 8, 2022

    --Cenovus Energy Inc.

    --Acquires Outstanding 50% Interest in Toledo Refinery from BP, Will Assume Operatorship
    TSX: CVE | CAD 21.26 | Outperform | Price Target CAD 32.00
    Sentiment: Positive

    --Cenovus announced this morning that it has reached an agreement to purchase BP’s 50% working interest in the Toledo Refinery. Cenovus has owned 50% of the refinery since its combination with Husky Energy in 2021 and will assume operatorship of the asset upon closing of the transaction, which is expected before the end of 2022.

    --Upon first glance, the US$300 million cash payment for 50% of Toledo is less than we would have expected. We will look to connect with Cenovus to learn further details about the transaction.

    --Key Points
    Total consideration includes US$300 million in cash, plus the value of inventory. In addition, the parties have signed a multiyear product supply agreement.
    The inventory will be valued at deal close, but we understand that it is currently estimated to be about C$100-$150 million.
    The transaction will give Cenovus an additional 80,000 bbl/d (including 45,000 bbl/d of heavy oil processing capacity) of downstream throughput capacity, bringing Cenovus’ total refining capacity to 740,000 bbl/d.
    Cenovus expects to realize synergies over the next few years as a result of the transaction, primarily related to the optimization of feedstock and refined product sales, with the longer-term potential to connect the Toledo refinery with Cenovus’ U.S. refining network. Currently, there are existing third-party (operational) pipelines between the Toledo and Lima facilities.
    --The Toledo refinery recently completed a major, once in five years turnaround to improve operational reliability.
  • S
    Sachin
    Share buy back numbers are in. Cenovus bought 18.5 million shares in Jul. worth around 425 million dollars returned to shareholders through buy back. GLTA long term holders.
  • j
    jian
    Cenovus shareholder return plan is to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through repurchase and dividends when debt is reduced to 4 billion.
    Q2 2022 debt is 7.53 billion, generating 2.276 billion free cash flow. CEO said in a conference call that the debt could be reduced to $4 billion by the end of the year. Now the quarterly free cash flow is 50% debt repayment, 50% return to shareholders . That is to say, Q3 and Q4 need to generate (7.53-40)*2=7.06 billion free cash flow.
    Can it be reached?
    Assuming Q3 oil prices, refining spreads unchanged, resulting in free cash flow of CAD 2.276 billion, + 664 million (Q2 hedge loss, no hedge after Q3) + 177 million (2022 Q2 payment for the purchase of 50% of Conoco's oil sands assets in 2017, deal end after May 2022, no further payment) + 420 million (sale of Husky gas station) - 600 million (one-time payment for the purchase of SUNRISE assets) - 75 million (installation for the purchase of SUNRISE assets, 2 years 600 million, quarterly 75 million) = 2.862 billion.

    Q4: 2.276 billion free cash flow, + 664 million (Q2 hedge loss, no hedge after Q3) + 177 million (2022Q2 payment to Conoco) = 3.042 billion

    There is still missing 70.6-28.62-30.42=1.156 billion.

    If the average oil price stays at $100, even the debt target will not be met by the end of December 2022 . It will be reached by the end of January 2023. I have not count that 2022 Q2 oil sands production, refineries are affected by annual maintenance. In the second half of the year, oil production will increase by roughly 30,000 barrels per day, and refineries will increase utilization.
    Hope to have a special bonus at that time. 100% of free cash flow is returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. A year is about 12 billion. The current market value in Canadian is 46.5 billion. The one-year return is 12/46.5=25.8%.

    Risks: 1. The world economy in recession, oil prices drop significantly. 2. The company has been planning to buy several U.S. refinery assets that it has 50% interest, affecting shareholder return plans.

    Disclosure of interests, I hold a heavy position in Cenovus Energy (CVE)
  • D
    DennisK
    I'm sorry I added more when it was in the low 20's
  • W
    Wally
    wonder if analysts are still projecting $33+ by year end?
  • T
    The Patient Lion 🦁
    When I first got here @ $6.09, there were also a lot of bumps along the way up as well, while looking at the other oil stocks take off to the skies. But holy smoking gun, calm down! If you can't stomach this pain, you guys better get out of the boat and dive to the abyss. No one still knows what's going to happen with the oil price in the coming several months. Effff demand destruction, winter is coming in a few months, the supply is still struggling to cope up with the demand, with or without the demand destruction. Get lost if you aren't prepared for this. Even at my lowest estimate, if CVE makes it to only a dismal 150% in 10 years, it is still a winner! This is not a blackjack type of stock, where you sit on the table, hit a 21 and take off. This is a long play album. I'm just shaking my #$%$ head with all these negative comments. You are not an investor if you just see the picture on a daily movement. Shaggg.
  • S
    Solidus
    $LPI conversation
    We should be at or above 2018 share price levels... Manipulation and political pressure are keeping this and a lot of other O&G stocks down... Buy up we'll get there soon enough... These companies are hedged well and are in great positions... $CPE $LPI $OVV $CDEV $CVE
  • N
    Night Fire
    wow :)

    -----Generated cash from operating activities of nearly $3.0 billion, adjusted funds flow of $3.1 billion, free funds flow of $2.3 billion and excess free funds flow of approximately $2.0 billion.

    -----Reduced long-term debt, including current portion, to $11.2 billion and net debt to $7.5 billion at quarter end.
  • D
    DennisK
    Devon just boosted cash div. to 1.55 for the qtr. Wake up CVE
  • C
    Chris
    Considering price to cash flow, we are currently trading at around 3x. Normalized at 6x (historically consiervative in the E&P space) we have 100% upside from here. More on a per share basis considering buybacks are aggressive.
  • R
    RaptorTrading
    Seems like demand data received was wrong. They said that Oil demand was recently lower compared to the first months of the pandemic. Lower is weird considering that most of the world is out of lockdowns.
  • E
    Ed
    bought lots of CVE=25$B4 OCT.=
    99% PROBABILITY
  • T
    T
    Unbelievable, the stock has dropped 20% in just 5 trading days, and oil demand hasn't fallen. Insane.
  • s
    sam
    This earnings for cve will be fantastic y’all. They will break records in a couple of days and we should be over $26. And over 30 in a month

    Let’s gooo