Should WTI average 75 over the course of 2022, CVE could use the FCF from this amount to reduce debt by over 6 billion... yes 6 billion! Not likely they will use all of the FCF to pay off debt but think about it.
Current debt is 10 billion (yes, it is probably less but won't know for another few weeks but let's assume worst case for now) - 6.6 billion from 2022 FCF @ WTI 75 = total remaining debt of 3.4 billion.
I still say forget about increasing the divy for now but rather use FCF to pay off the debt and simultaneous share buy backs.
Christ if SU had AP and his management team, SU would rival CNQs current share price. I digress.
U
CVE's Dec 2022 guidance is based on WTI of $71, WCS diff of $16 and a crack spread of $18. If today's market price ends up being the yearly average price for those three assumptions (and all other assumptions hold) then CVE will bank nearly $3.5 Billion in 'additional' FFF based on the sensitivities shown in their December presentation. That's a nice chunk of change considering their current dividend is only 280 Million.
L
Back to green, back to nineteen canadian. This stock never disappoints 😄 On its way to CAD $22 soon.
Global refinery closures outweigh new capacity in 2021: IEA
2021 ends "on a high note" for global industry
Capacity additions in 2022 could weigh on margins
Refinery closures outweighed new capacity in 2021, leading to a drop in global capacity for the first time in 30 years, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report Jan. 19.
Global capacity fell by 730,000 b/d last year as close to 1.6 million b/d was shut or converted into bio-refineries and only 850,000 b/d new capacity came online. For 2022 the IEA forecasts 1.2 million b/d of new additions, while runs will rise by 3.7 million b/d to 81.2 million b/d.
However, the reduced capacity last year led to improved refining margins, which "reached multi-year highs in Singapore and Europe at the end of 2021."
Last year thus ended "on a high note" for the global refining industry, the IEA said, as both runs and margins improved "amid continuously tight product markets" in the last quarter of the year.
Overall, 2021 gained 4.9 million b/d in terms of global refinery crude throughput to 80.2 million b/d.
The IEA revised upwards its November global refinery crude throughput estimates by almost 1 million b/d to 80.8 million b/d "on stronger-than-expected activity in China, India and Europe." However, December runs are likely to ease by 500,000 b/d to 80.3 million b/d as refineries in China reduce their processing.
Although runs increased in the fourth quarter, the agency estimated an "implied draw" of 1.3 million b/d in refined products as the increase was from a "low base" in the third quarter.
However, new additions in 2022 and the subsequent increase of global runs could outpace the demand growth for refined products, "possibly leading to an unwinding of some of the refinery margin gains from late last year," it said
New additions, closures New capacity is already coming up in China, according to S&P Global Platts data. China's privately held refining complex Shenghong Petrochemical is likely to start to feed crudes into its newly built 16 million mt/year crude distillation unit at the end of January. The refinery had initially planned to start up at the end of August.
Private refiner Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical fully started up commercial operations at it 400,000 b/d phase 2 refining and petrochemical project in early January.
Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical integrated complex, also known as PRefChem, is expected to resume operations in the second quarter, possibly in May, after previously planning a 2021 restart. The refinery, also known as RAPID refinery, delayed its restart several times following a fire that broke out at the diesel unit in March 2020.
Nigeria's Dangote refinery is on track to be operational from early this year despite some delays caused by shipping constraints.
Two new additions in the Middle East -- Saudi Arabia's Jazan and Kuwait's Al-Zour -- appear to be on track for a full start in 2022.
In January, Iran launched the first phase of a 70,000 b/d extra heavy crude plant on Qeshm island in the Persian Gulf.
The new capacities follow a spate of closures or capacity reductions and conversions in 2020 and 2021.
Gunvor mothballed its Antwerp refinery and shuttered the two crude processing units at Rotterdam.
Petroineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland saw its capacity reduced by 30% to around 150,000 b/d after the closure of a CDU and the FCC.
TotalEnergies' Grandpuits stopped crude processing in early 2021, ahead of conversion, while Portugal's Porto and Finland's Naantali also halted crude processing early last year and Norway's Slagen in mid-2021.
Australia is now left with only two refineries after the closure of Altona and Kwinana, while New Zealand will see its only refinery Marsden Point convert into an import terminal from April.
In the Philippines, Tabanagao refinery was shut in 2020 and converted into a terminal.
Similarly in South Africa, Engen's Durban refinery has been offline throughout 2021 to be converted into a terminal.
However, in 2022 another refinery in South Africa, Astron Energy's Cape Town, is expected to restart.
Meanwhile, a number of refineries in North America, including Cheyenne, Rodeo, Martinez are converting into bio-refineries.
#MPC, #PSX, #HFC, #CVE
J
Some upgrades today: 1/19/2022 - Raymond James - Boost Price Target - C$19.00 ➝ C$22.00 1/19/2022 - Tudor Pickering & Holt - Boost Price Target - C$19.00 ➝ C$22.00
G
You gotta own CVE if you investing in OIL period!! AP-Ceo best of breed....can't hold this stock back from heading to US$20 by Spring
G
January 15 - Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta reiterates Cenovus Energy to Outperform rating with $C22 price target........
J
is WS not seeing WTI break new 52w ATH day after day.... surprising to see canadian majors languishing when I think the trend for WTI is pretty clearly up and up
Fri, January 14, 2022, 5:02 AM (Bloomberg) -- Diesel markets are jumping everywhere, a positive indicator for oil prices more widely.
In Asia, the lowest inventories in years have driven margins from making the fuel to a four-month high. Winter there is chillier than usual and demand for transport, industrial and heating fuels are getting a boost.
The continent is contending with significantly less supply from China, after the oil refining giant slashed its fuel export quotas in the first allocation for 2022.
In the U.S., diesel prices have surged to highs not seen since 2014, driving up the cost of trucking, farming and -- in parts of the country -- heating homes. The surge is a blow to the Biden administration’s efforts to tame inflation.
They’ve surged as U.S. refiners began a heavy maintenance season this month, when stockpiles there are already at eight-year lows. A fire at one of the country’s largest refineries took out even more fuel-making capacity at the end of last year.
Rising jet fuel demand has also eaten into diesel output in recent months because refiners have scope to toggle between diesel and jet fuel, and they’re increasingly choosing the latter.
That leaves Europe as the last big diesel-consuming center, and the market is strong there too in part because of the global effect of China’s reduced exports.
So-called crack spreads, the fuel’s margin to crude, and time spreads that denote the strength of immediate supply-demand balances are rallying hard.
Despite the strong market in Europe, the continent is still set to send large cargoes of the fuel to the U.S., further tightening the region’s market.
The strong prices are a positive sign for the wider oil market. Diesel -- consumed in cars, trucks and heavy machinery among other things -- drives the cost of a wider group of petroleum products known as middle distillates that collectively account for about a third of the world’s fuel consumption.
#MPC, #PSX, #HFC, #CVE
A
Q4 2021 results gets CVE to 8 billion dollar debt target. CVE can buy out the remaining COP shares, double the dividend as well as buy back more shares, yes just that Q4
T
I'm up +295% on my position... WOO-HOOOOOO
S
not even fazed by this. we good. holding since $9.49, not concerned by this little dip. to the moon we go.
D
cash flow justifies a much higher dividend. follow Devon's example
d
Golly Day! WCS is up $3.27 to $71.02 today!. CVE is not an oil company but a money printing machine company.
C
I can't wait for earnings report. Stock is gonna go to the moon once that get's released. Hard to believe some people are shorting this right now.
J
oil up -> CVE down... seem like an easy time to make money IMO
A
I am sensing a substantial dividend increase and a massive debt reduction on the next earnings report. The question is how much?
G
Oh, hi there. Don't mind me. I'm just digging the graves for the short sellers.
s
Credit Suisse indicated there is a Continent Value Payment to CONOCOPHILLIPS with respect to when WCS prices are above 60$
This is going to depress cash available for distribution by 160,000,000 this quarter. Not sure now it'll impact future quarters.
Current debt is 10 billion (yes, it is probably less but won't know for another few weeks but let's assume worst case for now) - 6.6 billion from 2022 FCF @ WTI 75 = total remaining debt of 3.4 billion.
I still say forget about increasing the divy for now but rather use FCF to pay off the debt and simultaneous share buy backs.
Christ if SU had AP and his management team, SU would rival CNQs current share price. I digress.
On its way to CAD $22 soon.
2021 ends "on a high note" for global industry
Capacity additions in 2022 could weigh on margins
Refinery closures outweighed new capacity in 2021, leading to a drop in global capacity for the first time in 30 years, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report Jan. 19.
Global capacity fell by 730,000 b/d last year as close to 1.6 million b/d was shut or converted into bio-refineries and only 850,000 b/d new capacity came online.
For 2022 the IEA forecasts 1.2 million b/d of new additions, while runs will rise by 3.7 million b/d to 81.2 million b/d.
However, the reduced capacity last year led to improved refining margins, which "reached multi-year highs in Singapore and Europe at the end of 2021."
Last year thus ended "on a high note" for the global refining industry, the IEA said, as both runs and margins improved "amid continuously tight product markets" in the last quarter of the year.
Overall, 2021 gained 4.9 million b/d in terms of global refinery crude throughput to 80.2 million b/d.
The IEA revised upwards its November global refinery crude throughput estimates by almost 1 million b/d to 80.8 million b/d "on stronger-than-expected activity in China, India and Europe." However, December runs are likely to ease by 500,000 b/d to 80.3 million b/d as refineries in China reduce their processing.
Although runs increased in the fourth quarter, the agency estimated an "implied draw" of 1.3 million b/d in refined products as the increase was from a "low base" in the third quarter.
However, new additions in 2022 and the subsequent increase of global runs could outpace the demand growth for refined products, "possibly leading to an unwinding of some of the refinery margin gains from late last year," it said
New additions, closures
New capacity is already coming up in China, according to S&P Global Platts data. China's privately held refining complex Shenghong Petrochemical is likely to start to feed crudes into its newly built 16 million mt/year crude distillation unit at the end of January. The refinery had initially planned to start up at the end of August.
Private refiner Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical fully started up commercial operations at it 400,000 b/d phase 2 refining and petrochemical project in early January.
Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical integrated complex, also known as PRefChem, is expected to resume operations in the second quarter, possibly in May, after previously planning a 2021 restart. The refinery, also known as RAPID refinery, delayed its restart several times following a fire that broke out at the diesel unit in March 2020.
Nigeria's Dangote refinery is on track to be operational from early this year despite some delays caused by shipping constraints.
Two new additions in the Middle East -- Saudi Arabia's Jazan and Kuwait's Al-Zour -- appear to be on track for a full start in 2022.
In January, Iran launched the first phase of a 70,000 b/d extra heavy crude plant on Qeshm island in the Persian Gulf.
The new capacities follow a spate of closures or capacity reductions and conversions in 2020 and 2021.
Gunvor mothballed its Antwerp refinery and shuttered the two crude processing units at Rotterdam.
Petroineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland saw its capacity reduced by 30% to around 150,000 b/d after the closure of a CDU and the FCC.
TotalEnergies' Grandpuits stopped crude processing in early 2021, ahead of conversion, while Portugal's Porto and Finland's Naantali also halted crude processing early last year and Norway's Slagen in mid-2021.
Australia is now left with only two refineries after the closure of Altona and Kwinana, while New Zealand will see its only refinery Marsden Point convert into an import terminal from April.
In the Philippines, Tabanagao refinery was shut in 2020 and converted into a terminal.
Similarly in South Africa, Engen's Durban refinery has been offline throughout 2021 to be converted into a terminal.
However, in 2022 another refinery in South Africa, Astron Energy's Cape Town, is expected to restart.
Meanwhile, a number of refineries in North America, including Cheyenne, Rodeo, Martinez are converting into bio-refineries.
#MPC, #PSX, #HFC, #CVE
1/19/2022 - Raymond James - Boost Price Target - C$19.00 ➝ C$22.00
1/19/2022 - Tudor Pickering & Holt - Boost Price Target - C$19.00 ➝ C$22.00
Diesel Markets Are Soaring All Over the World
Fri, January 14, 2022, 5:02 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Diesel markets are jumping everywhere, a positive indicator for oil prices more widely.
In Asia, the lowest inventories in years have driven margins from making the fuel to a four-month high. Winter there is chillier than usual and demand for transport, industrial and heating fuels are getting a boost.
The continent is contending with significantly less supply from China, after the oil refining giant slashed its fuel export quotas in the first allocation for 2022.
In the U.S., diesel prices have surged to highs not seen since 2014, driving up the cost of trucking, farming and -- in parts of the country -- heating homes. The surge is a blow to the Biden administration’s efforts to tame inflation.
They’ve surged as U.S. refiners began a heavy maintenance season this month, when stockpiles there are already at eight-year lows. A fire at one of the country’s largest refineries took out even more fuel-making capacity at the end of last year.
Rising jet fuel demand has also eaten into diesel output in recent months because refiners have scope to toggle between diesel and jet fuel, and they’re increasingly choosing the latter.
That leaves Europe as the last big diesel-consuming center, and the market is strong there too in part because of the global effect of China’s reduced exports.
So-called crack spreads, the fuel’s margin to crude, and time spreads that denote the strength of immediate supply-demand balances are rallying hard.
Despite the strong market in Europe, the continent is still set to send large cargoes of the fuel to the U.S., further tightening the region’s market.
The strong prices are a positive sign for the wider oil market. Diesel -- consumed in cars, trucks and heavy machinery among other things -- drives the cost of a wider group of petroleum products known as middle distillates that collectively account for about a third of the world’s fuel consumption.
#MPC, #PSX, #HFC, #CVE
This is going to depress cash available for distribution by 160,000,000 this quarter. Not sure now it'll impact future quarters.