|Day's Range||3,138.47 - 3,176.28|
|52 Week Range||2,346.58 - 3,176.28|
Headlines moving the stock market in real time.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed could "adjust the details" of its balance sheet policies and repo operations to prevent another flare-up in money markets.
(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. President Donald Trump said the U.S. and China are very close to signing a “big” trade deal, sending stocks to new records on expectations that a tariff increase planned for Sunday will be called off while talks progress.“They want it, and so do we!” he tweeted five minutes after stocks opened in New York.Investors cheered Trump’s statement that the U.S. wants a deal with Beijing soon. That contrasted with remarks he made last week that he liked the idea of waiting until after the 2020 elections in the U.S. to sign a deal. The S&P 500 Index advanced to an intraday high and the MSCI All-Country stock index to its first record since January 2018.The U.S. has added a 25% duty on about $250 billion of Chinese products and a 15% levy on another $110 billion of its imports over the course of a 20-month trade war. Discussions now are focused on reducing those rates by as much as half as part of a phase-one agreement Trump announced almost nine weeks ago. Trump’s trade advisers are expected to lay out the options including a delay in the Dec. 15 tariffs at a White House meeting later Thursday, people familiar with the matter said. While that gathering may highlight continuing divisions among them over whether to hit Beijing with a new wave of tariffs, Trump’s tweet suggests he may be willing to forego escalation for now.Officials from the world’s two biggest economies have been locked in negotiations on the phase-one deal since Trump announced it.The new duties, which are due to go ahead at 12:01 a.m. Washington time on Sunday unless the administration signals otherwise, would hit some $160 billion in consumer goods from China including smartphones and toys.Before today, Trump’s advisers have sent conflicting signals and stressed that he hadn’t made up his mind on the next steps. Advocates of delaying the tariff increase have argued that continued negotiations with Beijing will enable him to maintain a tough line with Beijing without the economic damage that more import taxes might bring.The decision facing Trump highlights one dilemma he confronts going into the 2020 election: Whether to bet on an escalation of hostilities with China and the tariffs he is so fond of or to follow the advice of more market-oriented advisers and business leaders who argue a pause in the escalation would help a slowing U.S. economy bounce back in an election year.Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative leading the negotiations with China, is in camp who sees progress in talks and wants them to continue without further escalation, according to people familiar with the discussions. That would set up a push to conclude the talks in January, possibly before a State of the Union address to Congress by Trump, should that happen.To contact the reporters on this story: Jenny Leonard in Washington at firstname.lastname@example.org;Shawn Donnan in Washington at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at firstname.lastname@example.org, Brendan Murray, Ana MonteiroFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Canada’s stock market is on pace for its biggest gain in a decade. But 2020 may be the year it stands above the pack.Despite an 18% climb so far in 2019 with 15 fresh records and $408 billion in market value added, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is in the middle of the pack compared with top-performing stock markets. Its American counterpart, the S&P 500, has risen 25% in a bull market that everyone thought was living on borrowed time. Even stocks in resource-heavy Australia and New Zealand have done better.Strategists are now calling for a stronger move up north in 2020 compared with its southern neighbor. The Canadian benchmark will end 2020 at around 18,100, according to the average of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 6.8% ahead of the close Wednesday but still better than the 4.7% increase analysts are predicting for the S&P 500 Index next year.“It has been years since the S&P/TSX has beaten its peer to the south,” said Ian de Verteuil, an analyst at CIBC. “We forecast better returns for Canada in 2020 - granted modestly better but better nonetheless,” he said in a report published Tuesday, citing cheaper valuations and bigger buybacks among reasons.Read more: ‘Time Is Right’ for Canadian Equity Mutual Funds to Come HomeWith only a small weighting of tech firms on the S&P/TSX, Canada’s surge was held back as investors spent most of this year focused on momentum trades that zeroed in on growth stocks. But, with central banks around the world cutting interest rates, fiscal stimulus in other countries could make for a revival of value stocks in the coming year.Energy, materials and financials make up about 60% of the key stock gauge. Traders are also expecting about a one-third chance of a 25 basis point cut from the Bank of Canada in first half of the year, according to swaps trading.For Hugo Ste-Marie, analyst at Bank of Nova Scotia, the broad monetary policy easing experienced globally in 2019 will bear fruit in 2020 as it works with a lag. Expect to see healthier purchasing manager indexes around the world, he said his year-ahead report.It’s “time for resources to rebound” in Canada, Canaccord Genuity strategist Martin Roberge said, citing the TSX as a laggard to the S&P 500 Index amid a tech stock rally. Should visibility on global growth improve, investors will return to resource equities, he said.Bank of Montreal’s Brian Belski is cautiously optimistic. “We continue to believe energy is the most likely area to experience its traditional ‘ebbs and flows’ in 2020,” he said in a report published Wednesday. The sector has “historically has produced solid rebounds after three years of underperformance.”Fiera Capital portfolio manager Candice Bangsund is bullish. “We’re overweight Canadian stocks going into the new year,” she said in an interview on BNN Bloomberg. “The global economy is becoming increasingly self sustaining. This should bode well for a rotation from the growth sectors of the market that have run the leader board for the last several years towards more underappreciated value sectors, which is inherently positive for the TSX.”Financials, which make up a third of the index and have underperformed the broader index this year, could also make a comeback after a tough quarter that saw three of Canada’s six-biggest banks miss expectations.“Perpetual pessimism” has kept valuations attractive, BMO’s Belski said. Dividend growth is expected to slow but earnings growth remains stable and in a “healthy 5-10% range,” he said.“The financial story is a big part of our preference for Canada over the U.S. as well. The earnings results were fairly uninspiring to say the least,” Bangsund said. “Going forward we expect yield curves to steepen so this should improve the profitability of the banks.”The biggest wildcard to a continued equity rally is the U.S.-China trade war. While tensions have eased, all eyes will be on whether actual progress will be made.“Admittedly, the trade situation is highly unpredictable. However, we believe the most likely scenario is for some sort of de-escalation,” Ste-Marie said.(Updates to include number of estimates for the S&P/TSX’s 2020 target in the third paragraph.)\--With assistance from Aury Cifuentes, Aoyon Ashraf and Kristine Owram.To contact the reporter on this story: Divya Balji in Toronto at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Kyung Bok Cho at firstname.lastname@example.org, Jacqueline Thorpe, David ScanlanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Investors piled into risk assets and shunned havens as Donald Trump stoked optimism that he’ll reach a deal with China ahead of Sunday’s tariff deadline. The pound dropped as U.K. voters went to the polls.The S&P 500 Index rallied to an all-time high after the president tweeted that he’s “very close” to a deal with China. Stocks got a further boost after Dow Jones reported the administration might cut existing levies by half, with investors growing confident additional tariffs won’t take hold. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to the highest in five weeks and the dollar rose.Trump’s tweet is the latest in a spate of public proclamations by his administration that a deal with China is within striking distance. It comes three days before his plan to escalate the trade war unless at least a partial deal is reached. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled hikes remain unlikely, fueling bets that the economy will be strong enough to continue its solid expansion.The gain in American stocks pushed the MSCI All-Country index to its first record since January 2018.“People are finally recognizing that the U.S. is winning this trade war and corporate CEOs are going to begin to recognize that the U.S. economy is strong enough and is able to function well enough even with the current level of tariffs,” said Charlie Smith, founding partner and chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group.In Europe, the central bank said it would maintain bond buying and keep rates low until it gets near its inflation goal. The euro rose and bonds in the region slipped. The Swiss franc nudged higher after the central bank left rates unchanged.Earlier in the day, equities in Hong Kong and Seoul outperformed, while they slipped in Tokyo, Shanghai and Sydney. The Hong Kong dollar climbed into the stronger half of its trading band against the greenback for the first time since July. In the Middle East, Saudi Aramco shares jumped for a second day, pushing the oil giant’s value beyond the $2 trillion mark.Elsewhere, oil futures rose. The lira gained as the Turkish central bank delivered another interest-rate cut that exceeded forecasts.These are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index jumped 0.8% as of 10:53 a.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5%.The U.K.‘s FTSE 100 Index gained 1.1%.The MSCI All-World Index rose 0.8% to a record.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1%.The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1122.The British pound lost 0.5% to $1.3136.The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 109.18 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose nine basis points to 1.88%.The two-year Treasury rate added fouor basis points to 1.66%.Germany’s 10-year yield spiked to -0.26%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1% to $59.35 a barrel.Gold futures increased 0.6% to $1,490.83 an ounce.\--With assistance from Jeremy Herron and Sam Potter.To contact the reporters on this story: Claire Ballentine in New York at email@example.com;Vildana Hajric in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Sam PotterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- It may have been made in America, but the bullish sentiment that has been propelling U.S. stocks all year is starting to make its presence known elsewhere.Suddenly buoyant markets in places like Sao Paulo and Tokyo are breathing life into global benchmarks that had been laggards for most of the past two years, pushing MSCI’s all-country world gauge to a fresh high Thursday for the first time since Jan. 26, 2018. While the heavy lifting was done stateside, where the S&P 500 has returned 28% this year, other markets are getting in on the act.At minimum, today’s milestone is a rebuke to anyone who read the economic tea leaves in August and computed odds of a global recession somewhere around 100%. While stocks and economies frequently diverge and no signal is certain, the reemergence of risk appetite in equities is a sign not everyone is convinced world economies are out of gas.“There’s a complete sea change of message coming from the financial markets,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. “This looks more sustainable than just a blip.”The breakout ended the global gauge’s 684-day run without a record, the fourth-longest drought in history. At least eight stock markets joined the U.S. in making new highs in recent weeks, including Australia, Brazil, Denmark, India and Switzerland.Broadening participation contrasts with July, when the S&P 500 marched into unprecedented territory while the rest of the world was mired in corrections. Since mid-August, the Topix index of Japanese stocks has jumped 15% while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 12%.The resurgence of international stocks is part of a rally that has prompted investors to go risk-on, shifting focus from safe havens such as U.S. equities, government bonds and dividend stocks to cyclical and value assets.The newly-found leadership is a rebuttal to bears who have warned the U.S. would eventually be dragged down by economic and political turmoil elsewhere. Forecasts for American growth, while not historically high, aren’t falling, and progress has been made on Brexit and easing U.S.-trade tensions.With more than half of global central banks monitored by Bloomberg having lowered interest rates this year, the world economy is showing signs of stabilization. Across the globe, the rate at which economic data is missing forecasts has stopped worsening, data compiled by Citigroup showed.“Foreign investors are beginning to see that there is a light at the end of the tunnel,” John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, said in a phone interview. “And it’s not a locomotive or a tractor trailer truck coming out, it’s actually daylight at the end of the tunnel.”Read more:The Rumbling Sound in U.S. Stocks Is the Return of Risk AppetiteHavens Crushed as End-of-the-World Trade Implodes (2)Central Banks Hitting ‘Peak Dovishness’ Prick Bond-Market BubbleTo contact the reporters on this story: Lu Wang in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Vildana Hajric in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Brad Olesen at firstname.lastname@example.org, Chris Nagi, Brendan WalshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
U.S. stock indexes were set to open modestly lower on Thursday, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of the imposition of a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. President Donald Trump has just days to decide whether to go ahead with tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods just weeks before Christmas, a move that could be unwelcome in both the United States and China. "Because the administration is prone to putting out surprise statements on trade, investors are afraid to get too far in front on the likelihood of any bad news," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey.
U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and struck an optimistic tone on the outlook of the economy. Following three rate cuts this year to preempt a domestic slowdown fueled largely by President Donald Trump's trade war on China, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Our economic outlook remains a favorable one, despite global developments and ongoing risks". The Fed's move to ease monetary policy this year has supported the rise in stocks to record highs, along with a slightly calmer tone on trade and some relief in corporate earnings.
Investing.com -- U.S. negotiators are preparing to offer to cancel the next round of import tariffs on Chinese goods and cut existing tariffs in return for guaranteed purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The options-based Black Swan index may be signalling surging demand from investors for protection against a stock market crash, but Wall Street analysts see little reason to panic. It tracks the implied volatility of deep out-of-the-money options - that is, contracts that need a large move in the market before they come into play - on the S&P 500 . The gauge is also known as the Black Swan index, a reference to the book "Black Swan" by former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb that looks at the potentially catastrophic effects of unpredictable events.
World shares took another run at record highs on Thursday, as the right messages from the U.S. Federal Reserve set traders up for a packed day of central bank meetings and a Brexit-defining election in Britain. The Fed kept U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected, but it was a message that it would take an unexpected and "persistent" rise in inflation to lift them again that cheered the bulls and pushed the dollar to its lowest since August. Asian shares rallied almost 1% overnight, despite reports Washington will press on with new China tariffs.
Wall Street's main stock indexes ended modestly higher on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled that borrowing costs are likely to remain unchanged indefinitely. After cutting rates three times earlier this year, the Fed left its benchmark rate at the target range of between 1.50% and 1.75%, a decision that was widely expected.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose with Treasuries, while the dollar fell after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and its chairman signaled it would keep policy “somewhat accommodative.”The S&P 500 halted a two-day slide as investors viewed the last Fed decision of the year as dovish because the central bank signaled rate hikes are unlikely unless there is a meaningful change in the outlook for the economy. The 10-year Treasury rate fell below 1.8%.The Fed, in its first unanimous vote since May, said it will continue to monitor the implications of data for the economic outlook “including global developments and muted inflation pressures.”“It’s ‘steady as she goes’ from the Fed today,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede Trust. “This accommodative stance should provide a measure of support for risk assets heading into the new year.”Equity gains had been muted throughout the session as investors kept an eye out for trade headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed amid more trouble for Boeing Co.’s Max plane and Home Depot Inc.‘s weak forecast. Crude slipped after U.S. inventory data.With the world’s top two economies still wrangling over an interim deal, Thursday may bring news as Trump is expected to meet with his trade team, according to people familiar with the talks.Here are some other key events to watch:Brazil’s central bank also decides on interest rate.The next European Central Bank policy meeting is on Thursday.The U.K. holds a general election Thursday.And these are the main market moves:\--With assistance from Claire Ballentine.To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at email@example.com;Vildana Hajric in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Dave LiedtkaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 3135.00, the direction of the December E-mini S&P; 500 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of downtrending Gann angles at 3144.00 and 3130.00.
The S&P; 500 has sat relatively quiet over the last couple of days as we await the FOMC and of course the US/China trade deal. The December 15 deadline is this Sunday, and therefore everybody is standing on pins and needles.
Investing.com – Technology stocks were the stars of the day Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held steady on interest rates and Chairman Jerome Powell pronounced the economy "in a good place."
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes were set to open slightly higher on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy, while losses in Home Depot looked set to pressure the Dow Jones index. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady in its last policy statement, due at 2:00 p.m. ET (1900 GMT).
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.A Swiss company may not be among the Stoxx Europe 600’s top 10 performers this year, but the country greatly contributed to the benchmark’s biggest gain in a decade. In terms of weight in the rally, Swiss stocks hold the top three spots with Nestle, Novartis and Roche, and the SMI Index is matching the S&P 500 when including dividends over the past two years. Given the defensive nature of this market, a number of strategists and fund managers see scope for more outperformance given the low growth environment.For Eleanor Taylor Jolidon, a fund manager at Union Bancaire Privee in Geneva, Swiss stocks will remain attractive next year as investors seek high-quality shares in this low-growth environment, which is “extremely positive for the Swiss equity market,” she says.The fund manager says the Swiss market offers the second-best cash-flow returns on investment after the U.S., but also companies with high-quality managers, sound strategies, strong brands, and a stable political backdrop. Swiss companies also offer “fairly decent visibility” in terms of earnings growth expectations, she adds.Kepler Cheuvreux head of Swiss equities Torsten Sauter agrees and sees Switzerland as likely to continue outperforming other markets in 2020. With slow global growth and low inflation, it should remain attractive as investors look for dividend growth, he says.“It’s a bit boring but this is why Swiss equities work: they were winners in the last couple of years and will likely continue to be winners for the next couple of years,” Sauter says. In terms of total returns, the SMI is the only benchmark in Europe rivaling with the S&P 500 over the past two years.The SMI could be a “haven” among European indexes next year, Societe Generale strategists write in their year-ahead outlook, versus a more volatile DAX, biased toward exporters and cyclicals, an FTSE MIB dragged by weak Italian balance sheets and a FTSE 100 penalized by a rising pound. They see a turbulent year ahead for markets, with a mild U.S. recession kicking in during the second or the third quarter of 2020, which will affect European equities, even more so with expectations of a weakening dollar.Losing the EU trading equivalence earlier this year wasn’t a big deal for Swiss equities. If there was any impact, it seems there was a volume transfer toward the Swiss exchange, as the SMI posted its highest quarterly volumes since 2011 between July and September this year. More generally, the trend has been very positive for Swiss stocks since 2014, in sharp contrast with the euro-area stocks.Finally, there’s ESG. UBP’s Taylor Jolidon says the trend toward sustainability and Environmental, Social and Governance is structural and gaining traction. And the Swiss market is best positioned to benefit from that.While stocks are increasingly being excluded from investment strategies if they come from industries perceived as “dirty,” Switzerland has no energy, mining, tobacco or gambling stocks, making it an ideal investment choice for anyone who doesn’t want to think too hard, she says.Kepler Cheuvreux’s Sauter sees ESG-compliant stocks outperforming going forward, and lists Barry Callebaut, Belimo, Geberit, Sika, SIG Combibloc and Stadler Rail as shares likely to benefit.As for the Swiss franc, it defies gravity at the moment. Taylor Jolidon would like to see it weaker, but realistically should some trade tensions persist, it won’t weaken, and may remain steady around current levels, she says, even during an election year in the U.S. “Parity seems to be where the Swiss franc and the dollar are comfortable,” she says.To contact the reporters on this story: Albertina Torsoli in Geneva at firstname.lastname@example.org;Michael Msika in London at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Blaise Robinson at firstname.lastname@example.org, Jon MenonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Dec.10 -- Ryan Nauman, market strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, explains why he favors U.S. stocks. He speaks with Paul Allen and Shery Ahn on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia."