|Day's Range||20.07 - 21.28|
|52 Week Range||8.56 - 50.30|
Apple’s product-demand concerns and a cloud hanging over Goldman Sachs dampened Monday’s mood. The Trump administration is reportedly looking to broaden its trade battle with China.
Market bulls continue to see strong U.S. GDP growth, a tight labor market and surging corporate profits. A once-pristine fundamental backdrop suddenly looks tarnished, as worries accelerate that economic growth may have peaked, political headwinds are forming, and rising interest rates will stand in the way of future fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration. All it took was a negative headline for Apple about iPhone demand and news about a lingering regulatory issue for Goldman Sachs to send Wall Street into another tailspin.
Jim Carney of Parplus Partners says there’s “virtually no panic” in the CBOE Volatility Index, which measures future market risk and investor sentiment.
Investors have been on edge, with volatility spiking and the S&P 500 Index on track for its worst month since 2010. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is doing worse, falling more than 10 percent into a correction. Like on Tuesday, when major averages all posted gains greater than 1.5 percent, but the S&P 500 rose and fell more than 1 percent five times.
Unemployment is at decades-old lows and businesses and consumers have shown confidence. Economic output is growing. Executives lately have been talking about the challenges they face with rising production and materials costs and relatively new tariffs.
After a turbulent morning, Greater China markets rebounded strongly, following a series of measures by China's securities regulator to support the struggling stock market. China's GDP numbers showed its economic growth slowed to 6.5 percent year-over-year in the third quarter of 2018. Stocks in Asia were mixed on Friday after China's GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018 came in below expectations.
The market is bracing for volatility on election night, a change from recent midterm elections which traders expected to see come and go without a big swing.
Miami International Holdings Inc., a small but rapidly growing exchange operator, won regulatory approval on Friday for options on an index that tracks expectations for U.S. stock volatility. The measure, called SPIKES, competes head-to-head with the already established Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX. The VIX has also been beset by controversies and problems in 2018.
Months after he lost millions when an esoteric corner of financial markets cratered in February, former Target Corp store manager Seth Golden is betting against volatility again. Golden, who says wagers on market calm earned him millions in the past six years, is among the investors who have kept trading complex financial products linked to the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) - Wall Street's "fear gauge" - in the months since some of those products blew up. It was the Johnny-come-latelies and people who shouldn't have been trading volatility in the first place," Golden said.
Stocks got crushed again on Thursday as all three of the major indexes had their worst two-day stretch in 8 months, but investors shouldn't be spooked by the spike in volatility, according to Credit Suisse.
It’s been a wild week for stocks after the the S&P 500 tumbled more than 3% during Wednesday’s session, but one market strategists says the market volatility is normal in October.
“I like low interest rates,” Trump said. At least that’s how financial markets seem to be behaving, with the S&P 500 Index tumbling to its lowest since July and benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields reaching their highest since 2011. Equities and bonds have been under pressure ever since the Fed raised rates on Sept. 26 for the third time this year and the seventh time since Trump was elected.
A group of investors filed a complaint against Cboe Global Markets Inc. on Friday, alleging that they experienced losses because its popular volatility products were manipulated. The complaint alleges that market players consistently manipulated prices of derivatives tied to the VIX—a widely watched volatility measure that is also known as the Cboe Volatility Index. The investors claim that Cboe, which operates the largest options exchange in the U.S., knew about the activity, according to the complaint filed in the Northern District of Illinois.
The S&P 500 hit another record high last week and is ahead by nearly 10 percent for the year, confirming its longer-term uptrend through August and now most of September — historically challenging months. The market during this economic cycle has not tolerated stocks much above this valuation with bond yields in the 3 percent area. If the stock market were football, then entering the fourth quarter it would be the bulls' game to lose, with most of the pregame question marks about their stamina and halftime worries over roster depth answered assertively — in the form of a big lead and few obvious weaknesses.
The S&P 500 has gone 53 trading days without a move of 1% in either direction, the longest such streak since January and just the fifth time the benchmark index has moved less than 1% on 50 consecutive sessions in the past five years, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It last moved at least 1% on June 25, falling 1.4% as trade fears gripped global markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have also been relatively calm recently, though certain sectors have at times been volatile.
Buying on the eve of the Lehman crash would have left an investor underwater even three years later. Before Lehman Brothers collapsed, before AIG buckled, before the financial system fully broke down and was bailed out, stocks were already in a bear market. Bank stocks had hemorrhaged more than half their value over the prior year and a half, and the U.S. was nearly a year into a bruising recession.