Pay after inflation rises at fastest rate since 2021
South Asian woman in hard hat and hi viz uses a spirit level on a brick wall. She is outside on a building site.
[Getty Images]

UK pay after inflation has risen at its fastest rate for more than three years, driven by strong wage growth in the private sector.

Pay packets increased on average by 3.4% between September and November compared with the same period a year ago after taking into account the impact of price rises, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Growth in private sector earnings were stronger than for public sector jobs.

Despite a risk of higher wages pushing up inflation, the Bank of England is still expected to cut interest rates next month.

Rates are currently at 4.75%, but traders have bet on a cut to 4.5% in February, after inflation, which measures the rate prices rise at over time, unexpectedly fell last month.

The Bank of England watches the pay and jobs data closely when making decisions on interest rates. The latest ONS figures estimated that average weekly earnings in the UK hit £660 in November, when inflation was 2.6% - the latest figure is 2.5%.

"Pay hasn't put this much clear blue water between itself and inflation for around three and a half years, so the difference is palpable. It's leaving us with more money at the end of the month," said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Ms Coles warned there was a risk rising wages could lead to higher inflation and interest rate cuts being delayed, but added "on balance, the lack of growth in the economy, and a month of falling inflation, are likely to mean a rate cut in February is still on the cards".

Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, added some of the Bank's policymakers "may be worried" by the resurgence in private sector pay growth, but said she suspected most of them would be "look at the signs that the loosening in the labour market", and cut rates.

The UK's unemployment rate was estimated to have ticked up to 4.4%, while the estimated number of vacancies dropped 2.9% to 812,000 from October to December, continuing the decline but still remaining above pre-Covid pandemic levels.

The ONS advised treating its jobs market figures with "caution", due to questions over the relatability of the data caused by low response rates to its survey.

Line chart showing annual change in regular pay in Great Britain adjusted for CPI inflation, from September to November 2014 to September to November 2024. Figures exclude bonuses and pay arrears, and account for seasonal variation. In the year September to November 2014, real wage rose by 0.6%, and then fluctuated between positive and negative growth before hitting a high of 5.3% in mid-2021. It then hit a low of -4.1% in mid-2022, before rising again to 3.4% in September to November 2024, which was the highest wage growth figure for more than three years.
[BBC]

Petra Tagg, director at recruitment firm Manpower UK, told the BBC's Today programme that organisations had been "offering high rates of pay" as they looked for employees with specific skills for jobs in engineering, IT, and artificial intelligence.

But she said workers were "less likely to be moving [companies] as people are more nervous to look for employment in these… quite concerning times".