|Bid||19.07 x 27000|
|Ask||19.08 x 1000|
|Day's Range||18.89 - 19.09|
|52 Week Range||17.28 - 24.86|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.26|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.53%|
As Positive Catalysts for Gold Emerge, Which Miners May Benefit? South African miners have traditionally traded at a discount to their global counterparts, primarily due to South Africa’s laws, labor concerns, and infrastructure challenges. Among these miners, Sibanye Gold (SBGL) is trading at the highest EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value-to-EBITDA) multiple of 4.2x—a premium of 23.0% to the peer average.
As Positive Catalysts for Gold Emerge, Which Miners May Benefit? Among senior gold miners (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM) has the highest forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value-to-EBITDA) multiple of 7.6x. At a time when growth is difficult to come by in the gold mining space, Newmont Mining has a strong project pipeline with very low execution risk.
Gold miners as a whole are looking inexpensive compared to broader equities. The average ratio of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDX) and the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is 0.20 compared to the ten-year average of 0.68. While broader equities’ valuations have continued to increase, the valuations of gold stocks haven’t kept the pace, and the ratio has fallen.
What Would It Take to Restore Investors’ Confidence in IAMGOLD? Currently, IAMGOLD (IAG) has the fourth-highest number of “buy” ratings among its peers at 75%. Analysts’ sentiment for the stock has remained stagnant for the last few months.
IAMGOLD (IAG) reported its third-quarter earnings results after the market closed on November 6. It reported EPS of -$0.01, in line with analysts’ consensus estimate. Its revenue, however, missed expectations, coming in at $244.8 million compared to the consensus estimate of $266 million.
The rises in Barrick Gold’s (ABX) and Randgold Resources’ (GOLD) stock prices following their merger announcement suggest that investors are happy with the merger and its potential synergies. On November 5, more than 99% of ABX’s shareholders approved its all-stock acquisition of GOLD. The question, however, remains as to whether the issues ailing Barrick Gold will all go away with this merger.
On September 24, Barrick Gold (ABX) agreed to acquire Randgold Resources (GOLD) in a share-for-share deal. Along with owning five of the top ten tier-one gold assets, the combined company will have two high-potential tier-one assets in Fourmile and Turquoise Ridge. Randgold’s CEO, Mark Bristow, will become the CEO and president of the new Barrick Gold, while Thornton will become the executive chair.
Since the generation of free cash flow (or FCF) creates shareholder value and helps a business’s long-term prospects, it’s important for investors to track gold miners’ (GDX) abilities to generate FCF. Barrick Gold (ABX) has a strategy of value over volume, which prioritizes profitable production. The company defines value creation for shareholders in terms of FCF per share. Barrick Gold generated FCF of $319 million in the third quarter compared to -$172.0 million in the second quarter.
Some miners (GDX), including Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), and Kinross Gold (KGC), were especially affected by peak cycle acquisitions and the resulting write-downs. Most of this debt reduction has been driven by the sale of its noncore assets. At the end of the third quarter, Barrick Gold’s total debt was $5.7 billion compared to $6.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.
In the week following the announcement, Randgold rose 10.4% and Barrick was up 5.8%, while the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index was down 1.3%. The Barrick–Randgold merger was unique in that Barrick Gold didn’t pay a huge premium for Randgold. The two companies announced that Barrick Gold would be taking over the latter for $6.0 billion, which represented a negligible premium over Randgold’s stock price.
Production growth is a crucial variable for miners. Barrick Gold (ABX) produced ~1.15 million ounces of gold in the third quarter, a fall of ~7.0% YoY (year-over-year). Improved throughput and grades at Barrick Nevada and the completion of debottlenecking improvements at Pueblo Viejo aided this improvement.
Barrick Gold (ABX) reported its third-quarter earnings results after the market closed on October 24. In the third quarter, Barrick produced 1.15 million ounces of gold, up 7.4% sequentially, mainly due to better throughput and grades at Barrick Nevada. While the company has maintained its copper and gold production guidance for the year, it expects its gold production to come in at the lower end of 4.5 million–5.0 million ounces.
The EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple is a good valuation measure for capital-intensive industries. The chart above compares gold miners’ EV-to-forward-EBITDA multiples and EBITDA margins one-year forward. Among the senior and intermediate gold miners, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has the highest forward multiple of 10.3x, almost in line with its last-five-year average multiple.
According to the consensus compiled by Thomson Reuters, 71% of the analysts covering Yamana Gold (AUY) stock recommended a “buy,” while 14% recommended a “hold.” Yamana Gold’s target price represents an upside potential of 54% based on its current market price of $2.33.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) by-product AISC (all-in sustaining costs) for the third quarter were $739 per unit in gold equivalent ounces. Yamana Gold is guiding for by-product AISC of $725–$745 per gold equivalent ounce for 2018. During the conference call, Yamana Gold mentioned that while it isn’t updating the unit cost guidance, it’s providing directional information. The company expects its fourth quarter to have the highest production in the year with an anticipated improvement in unit costs.
Yamana Gold’s (AUY) production for the third quarter was 246,788 ounces, which is an improvement of 11% YoY (year-over-year) and 10% sequentially. The production was higher than management’s expectations for the quarter. The Cerro Moro mine reached commercial production towards the end of the second quarter. Due to Yamana Gold’s higher-than-expected production for the first nine months of the year and the favorable ramp-up of the Cerro Moro mine, the company increased the gold and copper production guidance for 2018.
Yamana Gold (AUY) released its third-quarter results before the markets opened on October 26. The company held a conference call the same day. Yamana Gold’s EPS of $0.02 beat the consensus estimate by $0.01. The company’s revenues of $416.8 million missed the consensus expectations by ~11%.
Goldcorp (GG) achieved AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of $999.00 per ounce in the third quarter, which was 20.8% higher YoY (year-over-year) and 17.5% higher sequentially. Its AISC was higher than expected due to the lower production of gold, as discussed previously in this series, as well as lower metals production including reduced by-products from the low-grade stockpile at Peñasquito. Along with lowering its production guidance, Goldcorp increased its cost guidance.
Eldorado Gold (EGO) stock dropped significantly in 2017 due to the standoff with the Greek government and some technical issues at its mines in Turkey. The stock continues to be pummeled due to these issues in 2018.
By October 17, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has lost 20.3% of its value YTD (year-to-date), while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) had fallen 14.3%. Among senior and intermediate miners (GDX)(GDXJ), Newmont Mining (NEM), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Goldcorp (GG) have performed better than AEM. Agnico Eagle is known to deliver consistent results throughout its cycles.
Goldcorp (GG) reported its third-quarter earnings on October 24 after the market closed and held its earnings conference call on October 25. It reported adjusted EPS of -$0.08, which missed the consensus estimate by $0.05. Its production was affected by lower throughput and planned grades from stockpiles due to the commissioning of its Peñasquito Pyrite Leach Project.
Yamana Gold (AUY) stock has outperformed its peers (GDX) YTD (year-to-date). Until October 17, the stock has lost 14.7% against Agnico Eagle Mines’ (AEM), Kinross Gold’s (KGC), and IAMGOLD’s (IAG) stock declines of 20.3%, 33.8%, and 31.9%, respectively. AUY’s operational performance has been strong in 2018.
After significantly outperforming its peers (GDX)(NUGT) in 2017, Kinross Gold (KGC) has underperformed this year. KGC’s YTD (year-to-date) return is lower than that of its close peers Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), and Goldcorp (GG), which have returned -14.4%, -12.1%, and -14.7%, respectively. Kinross Gold’s second-quarter results were in line, but its lower revenues due to lower production disappointed investors.