|Day's Range||2.5490 - 2.5830|
|52 Week Range||2.3560 - 3.2480|
Bond traders will be particularly focused on upcoming jobless figures at 8.30 a.m. ET. There will also be retail sales at 8.30 a.m. ET and flash manufacturing and services PMIs will be published at 9.45 a.m. ET. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to about 2.5686 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 2.9760 percent.
Investors are tracking corporate earnings, which have been a mixed bag. Market players are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which has been taking a more dovish approach recently. U.S. government debt prices fell on Wednesday as investors kept their focus on a slew of corporate earnings for the first-quarter of this year.
Hedge funds and other large speculators are paying more to protect against a decline in the greenback than they are for calls versus the euro and its other major peers, according to Bloomberg News’s Todd White. The big sell-off in stocks in the fourth quarter was partly triggered by the U.S. currency, which strengthened as the Fed doubled down on its hawkish rhetoric. Although equities have largely recovered, investors need to keep a close eye on the dollar.
Investors are taking a cautious approach as the Federal Reserve sounds more dovish. Speaking to CNBC on Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said that he'd be comfortable leaving interest rates untouched until autumn 2020. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 0.75% to 2.9872%.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks exclusively to CNBC at 8.30 a.m. E.T. On the data front Monday, there will be Empire State manufacturing data at 8.30 a.m. ET and TIC data at 4 p.m. ET. The U.S. Treasury will auction $42 billion in 13-week bills and $36 billion in 26-week bills.
The S&P 500 crossed the psychological 2,900 mark on Friday, putting the market on track to take back its all-time highs if earnings reports are better-than-expected, and companies provide positive guidance. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders' comments on the future outlook that are even more important. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough , or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth.
Furthermore, traders are keeping a close eye in the stock market with a new earnings season kicking in. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida told CNBC on Thursday that officials at the central bank see no reason to move interest rates in either direction at present. U.S. government debt prices were higher Friday amid global growth concerns.
On the data front Thursday, weekly jobless numbers and a producer price index are expected at 08:30 a.m. ET. Also on Thursday, the IMF Spring Meeting kicks off in Washington, D.C., which is attended by central bank governors, finance ministers and government officials. The U.S. Treasury will auction $50 billion in four-week bills, $35 billion in eight-week bills and $16 billion in 30-year bonds.
On Wednesday, The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting later in the session. Last month, the U.S. central bank decided to maintain interest rates and hold off an any further increases this year. On the data front, the Labor Department is expected to publish month-on-month and year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March at around 8:30 a.m. ET.
On Monday, Treasury yields ticked higher after the U.S. government said new orders for domestic goods fell in February, suggesting a softening in the manufacturing sector. At around 3:30 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.5168 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 2.9211 percent.
At around 03:00 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.4917 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 2.8993 percent. The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $42 billion in 13-week bills and $36 billion in 26-week bills.
U.S. government debt yields rose on Friday after the U.S. government said that job creation was stronger than expected in March, but wages grew at a sluggish pace. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.538%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.947%. Job creation snapped higher in March after an anemic February print, with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 196,000, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Friday.
Friday's jobs report literally is one of the most important in a very long time, since economists believe it will not only send an important signal about whether a recession is coming but also what the Fed should do about it. Economists expect 180,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in March, after a shockingly low 20,000 in February. March's report is expected to show that February's data was an anomaly and that job growth remains strong, there is no recession coming and the Fed may not need to cut interest rates.
At around 03:20 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to price, was lower at around 2.5044 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 2.9211 percent. It comes as U.S. and Chinese officials are reportedly getting closer to a trade deal, having resolved most of the outstanding issues in their protracted trade dispute. U.S. government debt prices were higher on Thursday morning, as investors monitor ongoing trade talks and Treasury auctions.
U.S. government debt yields rose Wednesday as traders monitored the latest developments in U.S.-China trade talks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped sharply to about 2.513 percent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.923 percent. U.S. and Chinese officials are reportedly getting closer to a trade deal, having resolved most of the outstanding issues in their protracted trade spat.
World stock markets were little changed on Tuesday but still managed to touch a six-month high as investors took a breather following a three-day run of gains while the possibility of tightening supply kept oil prices on the rise . Major U.S. indexes were little changed, although the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was dragged down by a slump of 12.81% in Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc after the drugstore chain cut its 2019 profit growth forecast. Economic data did little to stunt growth worries.
U.S. government debt prices were higher Tuesday, following the release of solid manufacturing data in the U.S. and China.
Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Michael Wilson says real estate and utilities stocks may be a good bet for investors as yields fall. Yields have staged a dramatic downshift following the Fed's decision last month to hold rates steady and cut its economic outlook. "Investors need look no further than the large relative outperformance of Utilities and REITs since last summer to see this relative benefit," he writes.
A private survey showed China's manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in March. The U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks in Washington this week. U.S. stock futures rallied early on Monday as strong manufacturing data out of China eased worries of a possible global economic slowdown.
With rate hikes off the table for now and global economic growth faltering, shares with payouts look more enticing. Also, the fallacies of Trump’s Fed nominee.
Yield curve fears aside, if the economy manages to escape a prolonged slump, it may have Washington’s fiscal profligacy to thank.
More than a dozen long-duration Treasury ETFs hit new highs last week as dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve drove investors to safety, but there’s only one ETF that investors need now.