^TNX - Treasury Yield 10 Years
| Previous Close | 1.5390 |
| Open | 1.5960 |
| Volume | 0 |
| Day's Range | 1.5840 - 1.6180 |
| 52 Week Range | 1.4750 - 3.2480 |
| Avg. Volume | 0 |
- Yahoo Finance Video
Mohamed El-Erian: The Fed is really put in a corner
The bond market is signaling a recession - Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro, Brian Cheung, Kevin Mahn - Hennion & Walsh Asset Management President & Chief Investment Officer and Mohamed El-Erian,Allianz Chief Economic Adviser discuss.
- Yahoo Finance
Stock market news: August 19, 2019
U.S. stocks rallied Monday morning in an at least temporary reprieve after a mid-August rout. U.S. government bond yields rose across the curve, led by yields on 30-year bonds and 10-year notes.
- FX Empire
USD/JPY Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Tough Talk from Powell Will Dampen Safe-Haven Demand
Powell will essentially have to talk tough in an effort to calm the financial markets. If he misses then he may actually trigger more volatility in the stock markets that could send investors back into the Japanese Yen for safety.
- FX Empire
Price of Gold Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Traders Bracing for Fed Chief Powell’s Speech on Thursday
Gold could be under pressure this week if recession fears continue to subside. There aren’t many major economic events this week so if there is volatility, it will likely be fueled by unexpected events by China or the United States. The key market moving event could take place on Thursday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
- FX Empire
Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Easing of Recession Fears Could Underpin Prices
Traders are focusing on two things: Possible OPEC production cuts and lower demand due to a weakening global economy. They don’t seem to be too worried about U.S. growth at this time. However, they are expressing concerns about the rising U.S. production.
- Reuters
Trump 'not ready' for China trade deal, dismisses recession fears
U.S. President Donald Trump and top White House officials dismissed concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying on Sunday they saw little risk of recession despite a volatile week on global bond markets, and insisting their trade war with China was doing no damage to the United States. "We're doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money," Trump said on Sunday.
- Yahoo Finance
Why this former NFL player is launching a business school program for inmates
Former NFL player Jack Brewer has launched a career development course for inmates preparing for transition into the workforce.
- Yahoo Finance
Bonds, yields, and why it matters when the yield curve inverts: Yahoo U
The yield curve inversion had markets tumbling amid concerns of a coming recession, but what is a "yield curve" and how (and/or why) does it invert?
- Yahoo Finance
Should stocks be taking their cue from bonds?
Plunging Treasury bond yields spooked a lot of investors this past week, especially after the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly fell below that of the 2-year for the first time in more than a decade. That so-called inverted yield curve has preceded each of the last seven recessions. But Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, tells Yahoo Finance that the U.S. stock market shouldn’t necessarily be taking its cue from the bond market right now. That’s because about $17 trillion of government bonds worldwide are trading at negative yields, according to Bloomberg.
- Reuters
U.S. housing market mired in weakness; consumer sentiment ebbs
U.S. homebuilding fell for a third straight month in July amid a steep decline in the construction of multi-family housing units, but a jump in permits to a seven-month high offered hope for the struggling housing market. Declining mortgage rates have done little to stimulate the housing market as land and labour shortages constrain builders' ability to construct sought-after lower-priced homes. "After almost a year, lower mortgage rates have done nothing to boost residential housing construction," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.
- FX Empire
Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – ECB Official’s Comments Sink Gold
Gold is going to have a hard time mounting a rally on Friday as long as yields remain firm, investors are willing to take on risk and the dollar continues to strengthen. It looks like it is going to take a surprise event to turn the market around today.
- Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year Yield Drops Below 1.5% for First Time Since 2016
(Bloomberg) -- The global rally in bonds on Thursday drove the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury below 1.5% for the first time since August 2016.The yield fell as much as 11 basis points to 1.47% on concerns about the rising risk of recession around the world and as U.S.-China relations deteriorate. The rush to buy haven assets drove the yield on the U.S. 30-year bond, the longest-maturity Treasury security, to a record low below 2% earlier in the session. U.S. stocks were also lower on the day and the dollar slid.Though the 10-year yield pulled back to 1.52% in subsequent trade, it’s likely to test its all-time low of 1.32%, says Tom Garretson, rates strategist at RBC Wealth Management.“Until we have some clarity on trade and how serious the Fed’s going to get about fighting the inversion of the yield curve, I think for now the momentum is lower,” Garretson said.Absent any new breakthrough in trade negotiations, the best chance for stabilization in the 10-year yield is if the Fed steps in to signal it’s ready to cut rates, he said.In the meantime, economic data can do little to ease the market’s pessimism about the global economy. Soft Chinese and German economic data fueled this week’s rallies in global rates, which have taken the German 10-year yield to -71 basis points. Thursday’s U.S. retail sales figures, which showed the consumer remains in fine form, had barely any market impact.(Updates prices, adds context.)\--With assistance from Benjamin Purvis.To contact the reporter on this story: Emily Barrett in New York at ebarrett25@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Dobson at pdobson2@bloomberg.net, Elizabeth StantonFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Bloomberg
Trump’s Re-Election Now at the Mercy of a Slowing Economy
(Bloomberg) -- The growing odds of a recession before the 2020 election threaten to crush President Donald Trump’s hopes of a second term.Though still uncertain, such a scenario would be a political gift to Democrats, who have avoided talking about the nearly full employment, record stocks and low inflation so far in the Trump presidency.Instead, the candidates have highlighted rising income inequality and untenable costs of health care and college to argue that the working class isn’t feeling the boom.But this week, fears of a broader downturn arose. The S&P 500 sank almost 3% on Wednesday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 800 points in its worst rout of the year, sparked when the 10-year Treasury rate slid below the two-year for the first time since 2007, a harbinger of a possible downturn.With a global factory slowdown and Trump’s trade war already weighing on growth, the chances that the U.S. will tip into a recession within the next year have risen to 35%, according to an August survey of economists by Bloomberg News.“Short of Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh disclosing membership in the Communist Party, it is hard to think of any development that could undercut Trump more than a recession,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.“He promised the religious right that he would give them judges and he promised the rest of his base that he would give them prosperity. Take away prosperity, and he won’t have a prayer,” he said.At least one Democrat took notice of the signs.Senator Elizabeth Warren, who posted a Medium blog in July about the economic slowdown, tweeted Wednesday that “the warning signs for another recession are flashing. We need to pay attention and act now, while we still have time to avert a downturn.”Government data on jobless claims out Thursday showed the labor market remained healthy last week, though it may be cooling slightly. At the same time, retail sales rose in July by the most in four months, suggesting consumers will help support the economy. But data on manufacturing were mixed.Economic trends tend to predict election outcomes, and recessions can be kryptonite for the party in power. In the last century, the only elected presidents who lost re-election did so after overseeing a recession — George H.W. Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Herbert Hoover in 1932.Approval RatingsFor Trump, the economy may be even more important than for his predecessors. His low-40s approval rating is already perilous for an incumbent, and the economy is the main factor keeping him afloat. He scores poorly on most other policy issues and on questions of leadership and character.“If the economy is what’s holding him at a 43% approval rating, what happens if there is a recession or a stock market retrench going into 2020 or in 2020? If that were to occur, at that point what’s holding him up?” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist and presidential campaign veteran. “There is a danger that the one thing that’s holding him up starts to dissipate. And then he’s in deep trouble.”In February 1991, Bush’s approval rating in the Gallup poll reached an astounding 89% after the Gulf War. By June 1992, as unemployment was peaking, his approval rating plunged to 38%. Shortly before Election Day, in mid-October 1992, it was 34%. Then he was swept out of power by Democrat Bill Clinton.Slowdown SignsThe yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the 2-year note on Wednesday after the gap gradually shrank over the past two years. An inversion — in which short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates — is a sign that economic growth is expected to slow.Before the markets closed, Trump tried to deflect any blame for the economic news by turning it on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases, venting about the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!” in a tweet Wednesday, blaming it on the central bank’s interest rate increases.On Thursday, Trump told radio station WGIR in New Hampshire that “the economy is phenomenal right now,” but added: “We had a couple of bad days but we’re going to have some very good days.”A Federal Reserve Bank of New York index based on the yield curve shows the probability of an American recession over the next 12 months is close to its highest level since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.Still, economists caution that the warning signs don’t mean that a crash is about to hit.“There’s not a ton of flashing warning signals from a pure economic sense that would suggest a recession is imminent, yet we have all of these other signals -- some coming from the markets obviously -- that suggest that caution is certainly warranted right now,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co.Trade-policy uncertainty, economic weakness spanning from China to Europe and the tightening of financial conditions could lead to trouble on the horizon, he said.Weakness Spreading?U.S. factory activity deteriorated in July to an almost three-year low, according to the latest figures from the Institute for Supply Management. In a sign that manufacturing weakness is threatening to spread, the purchasing managers group said its gauge of service providers also dropped to the lowest level since 2016.Economists worry this weakness will take a toll on what’s been the American economy’s bright spot -- the job market.“The labor market is what hits home the most” for everyday Americans, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. “As long as you have a job and you’re confident in your job, you’re probably feeling reasonably good about things.”Despite the uptick in recession odds, economists still see fairly healthy growth as the U.S. is buoyed by a strong labor market. Weekly jobless claims are arguably a more timely gauge of any change in the state of the job market, and it shows little sign of deterioration. Even with the latest increase, applications continue to hover just above a 49-year low.Republican strategist Brad Todd signaled that if the economy worsens, Trump allies will highlight what they call a Democratic drift toward “socialism.”“Swing voters believe lower taxes are better for them and higher taxes are worse for them,” he said. “As Democrats move further toward socialism, that will not help them take advantage of any deterioration in the economy, because anybody in America who’s not a raging liberal believes socialism makes the economy worse.”(Updates with new economic data in 10th paragraph, Trump comment in 17th paragraph.)\--With assistance from Vince Golle and Catarina Saraiva.To contact the reporters on this story: Sahil Kapur in Washington at skapur39@bloomberg.net;Reade Pickert in Washington at epickert@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, John HarneyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
- Reuters
U.S. 30-year yields drop to fresh record low below 2%
U.S. 30-year Treasury yields fell to a record low below 2% and benchmark 10-year notes dropped to a three-year trough on Thursday amid persistent worries about global trade tensions and economic slowdowns around the world. A day after inverting, the U.S. yield curve steepened a little. Curve inversion, which occurs when long-term yields dip below short-term ones, is widely considered a warning that the economy is headed for recession.
- FX Empire
Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Threat of Chinese Counter-Measures Weighing on Prices
Breaking news is having an impact on crude oil prices today. Early Thursday, China said it has to take necessary counter-measures to the latest U.S. tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods, according to its finance minister.
- FX Empire
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Aussie Firms on Strong Job Gains; U.S. Retail Sales On Tap
The Australian Dollar is trading a little higher early Thursday after Australia’s labor market continued to confound the experts, by adding nearly three times the estimated number of jobs, while unemployment remained stubbornly unchanged as the labor force expanded further.
- FX Empire
USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Price Action Suggests Recession Concerns Being Downplayed
On Wednesday, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told FOX Business she doesn’t think the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession. “I think the answer is most likely no,” Yellen said.
- Reuters
Canada's yield curve inversion turns up pressure on central bank to cut rates
Inversion of Canada's yield curve by the most in nearly two decades is threatening to coerce the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates rather than risk an economic downturn, portfolio managers said on Wednesday. Curve inversion, when long-term yields dip below short-term ones, is seen by some investors as a harbinger of economic recession. "The Bank of Canada can't ignore what's happening in debt markets and the inversion of the yield curve," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
- Reuters
Markets register a shock, but is Trump right to blame the Fed?
It takes a lot to kill an economic expansion, typically requiring a major shock to bring growth to a halt and trigger a U.S. recession. This week investors signalled that moment may have arrived, and one big question is whether that shock has come from President Donald Trump's trade war or a mistake by policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve. As bond markets flashed concern about recession on Wednesday and major stock indices cratered, Trump put the blame squarely on the Fed for continuing to raise rates through the end of last year.
- Reuters
U.S. yield curve inversion highlights recession fears, Fed dilemma
When the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade, it signaled that further reductions in borrowing costs might not be needed. Bond markets vehemently disagree. Sliding bond yields and the inversion of a key part of the U.S. yield curve on Wednesday for the first time in 12 years show that bond investors have a far gloomier outlook for the U.S. and global economies than the U.S. central bank.
- Reuters
Inverted yield curve rattles investors wary of dying stock bull market
SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - A closely watched section of the U.S. yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time in over 12 years, rattling investors already worried that a U.S.-China trade war might trigger a global recession and kill off a decade-long bull market on Wall Street. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note tipped 1.4 basis points below 2-year Treasury yields , the first time this spread has been negative since 2007, which was the end of a trend of negative yield curves that started in 2005, according to Refinitiv data. A yield curve typically has an upward slope -- when the yields are plotted on a graph -- because investors expect greater compensation for the risk of owning longer-maturity debt.
- Reuters
Countdown to recession: What an inverted yield curve means
Other sections of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have been inverted for months as investors bet that U.S. and global growth would slow. WHAT IS THE TREASURY YIELD CURVE? The yield curve is a plot of the yields on all Treasury maturities - debt sold by the federal government - ranging from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds.
- Reuters
EXPLAINER-Countdown to recession: What an inverted yield curve means
Other sections of the U.S. Treasury yield curve have been inverted for months as investors bet that U.S. and global growth would slow. WHAT IS THE TREASURY YIELD CURVE? The yield curve is a plot of the yields on all Treasury maturities - debt sold by the federal government - ranging from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds.
- FX Empire
Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Global Recession Concerns
Gold is trading higher, but the market remains inside yesterday’s wide range. The heightened volatility may have shook up traders a little, who seem to be a little reluctant to chase prices higher at current price levels. Nonetheless, the news is bullish for gold prices for the long run.
