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The Economic Symposium, set to take place at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from Thursday until Saturday, will focus on changing market structure and the implications for monetary policy going forward. The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $51 billion in 13-week bills and $45 billion in 26-week bills. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at around 2.858 percent at 5:45 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was in the red at 3.014 percent.
The dollar was pressured by a firmer Euro, which strengthened against the greenback due to an easing of tensions over the fallout from the currency turmoil in Turkey. Despite the setback on the daily chart, the dollar index still managed to close 0.12% higher for the week. The first look at consumer sentiment for the month of August came in below expectations.
Yields rose Friday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese and U.S. negotiators are drawing up a road map for talks to end their trade impasse. The aim is to conclude the discussions with meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November, said officials in both nations.
At 10 a.m. ET, consumer sentiment for August is scheduled to come out, along with leading economic indicators and the Advance Quarterly Services Report, that measures the performance of the U.S. service economy, for the second quarter. Investor sentiment around the globe appears to be relatively upbeat on Friday, following positive trade developments between the U.S. and China. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at around 2.853 percent at 5:25 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was in the red at 3.014 percent.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended Aug. 11, according to the U.S. Labor Department. U.S. government debt yields ticked higher on Thursday on hopes for trade talks between the U.S. and China and after the government said the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for a second straight week.
U.S. government debt yields floated higher Tuesday as the Turkish lira stabilized following days of geopolitical uncertainty within the country. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at around 2.877 percent at 10:05 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slightly lower at 3.041 percent. Aside from concerns over a tit-for-tat trade dispute between the U.S. and major economies including China, market focus has been mainly fixated by the economic crisis in Turkey.
U.S. government bonds fell Monday as investors are increasingly speculating that the crisis in Turkey will be contained. Yields climbed as some investors saw limited potential harm to the U.S. economy from the economic and diplomatic turmoil in Turkey, which has caused its currency to plunge and yields on its bonds to jump. As Turkey’s economy has slowed and inflation has risen, officials have pursued policies intended to spur the pace of growth, while the central bank has declined the opportunity to raise interest rates.
Global markets continue to see red, after Turkey's financial troubles sparked fear of contagion and the country's lira currency took a deep slide. The U.S. Treasury is scheduled to auction $51 billion in 13-week bills and $45 billion in 26-week bills. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at around 2.862 percent at 6:00 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was in the black at 3.033 percent.
U.S. government bond prices rose Friday after continued economic uncertainty in Turkey—and the fear of a ripple effect across other markets—pushed investors to the relative safety of Treasury debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury posted its biggest one-day drop since May 29, settling at 2.859%, compared with 2.935% Thursday. Yields fell as the Turkish lira continued its steep descent Friday, pushing the dollar to its highest level in more than a year.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was sharply lower at around 2.894 percent at 5:45 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was deep in the red at 3.048 percent. Consequently, investors have been keeping a close eye on the Russian ruble.
U.S. government bonds gained Thursday after the Labor Department said producer prices remained flat in July, falling short of economist forecasts for them to rise. Yields fell Thursday after the Labor Department said the producer-price index was flat in July, and that prices excluding the often-volatile food and energy categories rose 0.1%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.2% increase in overall prices, and a 0.2% rise for prices excluding food and energy.
The U.S. Labor Department said Thursday that its U.S. producer price index was unchanged in July, falling short of a 0.2 percent increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 3 basis points lower at around 2.939 percent at 9:28 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also lower at 3.095 percent.
After the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to hold fire on raising interest rates last week, traders will be turning their attention to Virginia, where Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak about "Unlocking Our Potential" in Roanoke. Mortgage applications data is due out at 7 a.m. ET ahead of fresh inflation data due out on Thursday and Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was a touch lower at around 2.965 percent at 5:35 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was in the red at 3.113 percent.
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently issued two warnings, one about rising bond yields and the other on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet operation. Banking analyst Dick Bove said Dimon is right to be concerned as the demand for money rises at a time when liquidity is contracting. In the past ten days Jamie Dimon , JP Morgan Chase's CEO has highlighted two concerns.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. ET, followed by consumer credit at 3 p.m. ET. The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $70 billion in four-week bills and $34 billion in three-year notes. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up at around 2.96 percent at 9:33 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up at 3.107 percent.
"I think rates should be 4 percent today," Dimon says. The rate on the closely followed 10-year note remains below even the 3 percent level despite Dimon's expectations. J.P. Morgan Chase JPM chief Jamie Dimon says people should prepare for U.S. yields of 5 percent, warning investors that borrowing costs throughout the economy are likely to rise beyond even his prior forecasts.
This week the Treasury Department will auction $34 billion of three‐year notes, $26 billion of 10‐year notes (a record, per BMO Capital Markets), and $18 billion of 30‐year bonds. Inflation data in the form of producer prices and consumer prices are expected Thursday and Friday, receptively. The Department of Labor said Friday that total nonfarm payrolls increased by 157,000 for the month.
U.S. government debt supply will likely continue to boom, but bond market investors seem to be taking it in stride. The Treasury Department is having to sell more debt to finance the government's ballooning deficit, stemming from the massive federal tax overhaul in December and the spending deal passed in February. Supply is expected to run high at least until the Treasury provides updated forecasts on its borrowing needs, next due in November - and might even accelerate further.
Treasurys advanced Friday after the Labor Department said that the pace of hiring slowed in July and China said it would impose new tariffs on imports from the U.S. Yields fell after data showed the economy added 157,000 jobs last month, compared with a 190,000 estimate in a Wall Street Journal survey of economists. Many investors and analysts had expected faster gains in wages this year following passage of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts in December, with fiscal policy makers predicting companies would use some proceeds from the tax cuts to lift workers wages.
Barron’s recently met with Leon Cooperman, 75, the Bronx boy who founded the firm in late 1991, and Steven Einhorn, 70, his right-hand man, who joined in 1999, to learn their market view and which stocks they favor now. Einhorn studies the global economy and monetary and fiscal policy trends, while Cooperman, a billionaire who still uses mass transit to get to work, focuses on company fundamentals. The SEC had wanted to bar Cooperman from the industry, but didn’t.
The Department of Labor said that total nonfarm payrolls increased by 157,000 for the month, below the 190,000 expected. Also weighing on Treasury yields was an announcement from the Chinese government that the country will slap an additional $60 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods. U.S. government debt yields slipped Friday after the U.S. government reported that payroll growth slowed in July and an announcement from the Chinese government that Beijing will impose tariffs on roughly $60 billion in U.S. goods.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note cracked through its 3 percent level this week to hit its highest level since mid-June as the bond market showed signs of activity after a quiet summer. A bottom in Treasury yields formed over the past three years, demonstrated by low in February 2015, a lower low in mid-2016 and a higher low in September last year, says Cappelleri. For those expecting a more hawkish Federal Reserve, higher yields also make sense, according to Cappelleri.
Markets around the world continue to be on edge over what these trade tensions could mean for Washington and Beijing going forward. Coming up today in terms of data, jobless claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by factory orders at 10 a.m. ET. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at around 2.988 percent at 9:28 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down at 3.121 percent.
WASHINGTON—Rising federal budget deficits are boosting the U.S. Treasury’s borrowing and could restrain a fast-growing economy as the cost of credit rises, too. The yield of 10-year Treasury notes climbed above 3% for the first time since June, as the Treasury Department announced it would increase auctions of U.S. debt by an additional $30 billion over the next three months. The Treasury gets cash to fund the government in exchange for selling the securities.