The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, in September and December, as resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation, according to a growing majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Declining price pressures over the past few months and recent signs of labor market weakness gave several members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "greater confidence" inflation will return to the U.S. central bank's 2% goal without a significant economic slowdown. While all 100 economists in the July 17-23 Reuters poll said the Fed will keep rates unchanged on July 31, more than 80% - 82 of 100 - forecast the first 25-basis-point cut would come in September, pushing the federal funds rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.22% Monday morning. It’s tempting to say that the move is due to rising expectations of a second Donald Trump presidency, but the gain has to be put into context. The 10-year yield was hovering around 4.3% just last Thursday before the more-benign-than-expected consumer price index report raised hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September.
The weekend attack on pro-crypto presidential candidate Trump should galvanize bids for cryptocurrencies, one observer said.