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Why Is Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) Down 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM). Shares have lost about 3.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mirum Pharmaceuticals due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Mirum's Q1 Earnings & Revenues Fall Shy of Estimates

Mirum incurred first-quarter 2024 loss of 54 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 40 cents. The company had reported a loss of 80 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

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Revenues in the first quarter totaled $69.2 million, up almost 118.9% year over year. The figure, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $70 million. The top line comprised Livmarli sales, newly acquired Cholbam and Chenodal sales and minimal license and other revenues.

Quarter in Detail

Livmarli’s net product sales were $42.8 million in the first quarter, reflecting an increase of almost 47% year over year.

Net product sales of Cholbam and Chenodal were $26.1 million, representing the sales of these two products under Mirum's leadership.

License and other revenues were $0.3 million in the reported quarter compared with $2.5 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Research and development expenses increased 37% year over year to $32.2 million.

Selling, general and administrative expenses totaled $45.6 million, up almost 51% from the year-ago quarter’s level.

As of Mar 31, 2024, Mirum had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities worth $302.8 million compared with $286.3 million as of Dec 31, 2023.

2024 Guidance

Mirum reiterated its revenue guidance for 2024.

The company expects full-year revenues to be in the range of $310-$320 million for 2024. Driven by the continued growth in demand for Livmarli, Mirum believes that it is on track to achieve the total revenue guidance.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -21.51% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Mirum Pharmaceuticals has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mirum Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Mirum Pharmaceuticals belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), has gained 1.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2024.

Axsome reported revenues of $75 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -20.7%. EPS of -$1.09 for the same period compares with -$0.22 a year ago.

Axsome is expected to post a loss of $1.32 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -32%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2.4%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Axsome. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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