Yahoo Finance Earnings Miss: Exxon Mobil Corporation Missed EPS By 6.5% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Last week, you might have seen that Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.3% to US$118 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$83b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.5% to hit US$2.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil
Following the latest results, Exxon Mobil's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$346.2b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 11% to US$9.20. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$347.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.08 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$130, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Exxon Mobil analyst has a price target of US$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Exxon Mobil's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Exxon Mobil's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$130, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Exxon Mobil analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Exxon Mobil that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
