Yahoo Finance The BeiGene, Ltd. (NASDAQ:BGNE) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
A week ago, BeiGene, Ltd. (NASDAQ:BGNE) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The results overall were credible, with revenues of US$752m beating expectations by 10%. Statutory losses were US$2.41 per share, 17% below what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BeiGene after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for BeiGene
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for BeiGene from 28 analysts is for revenues of US$3.18b in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$9.10 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.10b and losses of US$8.55 per share in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although there was a nice uplift to revenue, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to its losses per share forecasts.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$268, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on BeiGene, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$345 and the most bearish at US$152 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BeiGene's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 21% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 43% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 19% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BeiGene is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at BeiGene. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BeiGene going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for BeiGene you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
