Yahoo Finance Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) After Its Latest Results
As you might know, REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It looks to have been a weak result overall, as revenue of US$16m were 31% less than the analysts expected. Unsurprisingly, losses were also somewhat larger than was modelled, at US$1.38 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on REGENXBIO after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for REGENXBIO
Following the latest results, REGENXBIO's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$117.9m in 2024. This would be a substantial 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 7.4% to US$4.89 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$134.4m and US$4.12 per share in losses. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$39.33, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on REGENXBIO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$55.00 and the most bearish at US$21.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that REGENXBIO's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 51% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 15% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect REGENXBIO to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$39.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on REGENXBIO. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple REGENXBIO analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with REGENXBIO , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
