Yahoo Finance American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEI) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$20.67
Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 31% over the past week following American Public Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:APEI) latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$154m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with American Public Education losing US$0.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for American Public Education
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from American Public Education's four analysts is for revenues of US$624.1m in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with American Public Education forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.72 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$613.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.55 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 32% to US$20.67. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic American Public Education analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Public Education's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that American Public Education is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around American Public Education's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for American Public Education going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for American Public Education you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
