UPDATE 1-US natgas prices edge up to 8-month high on rising exports, cooler forecast

(Adds latest prices) Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday to a fresh eight-month high on rising exports and forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. Gas futures were also supported by worries about global energy supplies that boosted oil and gas prices around the world due to tensions in the Middle East and possible strikes by workers at liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in Australia. Oil prices surged over 4% as military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas ignited fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. In Australia, Chevron sought government help to find a deal with unions at its two LNG facilities in Western Australia after workers announced plans to resume strikes. Australia was the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2022, according to data from LSEG. If strikes reduce Australia's LNG exports, global gas prices will rise, including in the United States, which itself is on track to become the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $3.376 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 23 for a second day in a row. That also put the front-month up for a fifth day in a row and kept it in technically overbought territory, with a relative strength index (RSI) above 70, for a third consecutive day for the first time since June. Even through temperatures were expected to decline with the coming of winter, meteorologists forecast the weather would remain milder than normal through late October, keeping both heating and cooling demand low. Traders said that mild outlook helped cut the premium of futures for November over December to its lowest since September 2022. In the spot market, next-day gas at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana rose to $3.13 per mmBtu for Monday, its highest since January 2023. But so long as remain below the front-month, the spot market will continue to weigh on futures. Next-day prices have closed below the front-month for 157 of the 192 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 102.6 bcfd in September but still below the monthly record of 103.1 bcfd in July. With seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 95.2 bcfd this week to 97.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Pipeline exports to Mexico so far in October held near the monthly record high of 7.2 bcfd hit in September. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.6 bcfd in September, but still well below the record high of 14.0 bcfd in April. Energy traders said they expected total LNG feedgas to rise to near record levels over the next week or so once Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility in Maryland exits a maintenance outage. Cove Point shut around Sept. 20. Analysts at LSEG have said the plant usually shuts for about three weeks of maintenance each autumn. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Oct 6 Sep 29 Actual Oct 6 average Forecast Oct 6 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 94 86 125 93 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,539 3,445 3,213 3,366 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.1% 5.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 3.43 3.34 6.08 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 13.35 11.86 38.37 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.08 14.11 32.98 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 122 111 128 114 127 U.S. GFS CDDs 37 51 44 53 45 U.S. GFS TDDs 159 162 172 167 172 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.2 103.4 103.1 99.4 93.1 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.0 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.9 110.3 109.6 105.4 101.0 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.2 7.2 7.2 5.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 13.2 13.3 10.9 7.1 U.S. Commercial 5.0 6.3 7.1 6.2 7.0 U.S. Residential 4.2 6.7 8.3 6.7 7.5 U.S. Power Plant 35.4 30.9 29.8 31.6 30.1 U.S. Industrial 21.7 22.3 22.7 22.1 22.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 73.3 73.3 75.0 73.6 73.9 Total U.S. Demand 94.6 95.2 97.0 92.4 88.8 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day % 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 94 94 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 91 91 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 91 92 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Oct 13 Oct 6 Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 15 Wind 8 11 8 8 5 Solar 5 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 5 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 42 44 43 46 Coal 17 16 17 17 18 Nuclear 22 19 20 20 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 3.13 2.92 Transco Z6 New York 0.95 1.17 PG&E Citygate 5.51 5.17 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.24 1.07 Chicago Citygate 2.60 2.60 Algonquin Citygate 2.35 1.20 SoCal Citygate 6.60 7.50 Waha Hub 2.42 2.52 AECO 1.25 1.20 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 32.50 27.50 PJM West 30.00 36.75 Ercot North 23.50 26.75 Mid C 65.50 78.50 Palo Verde 62.50 72.25 SP-15 58.50 67.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Aurora Ellis)