Yahoo Finance Presents: Polling the impact of COVID-19

On this episode of Yahoo Finance Presents, The Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn joins Yahoo Finance's Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer for a discussion about COVID-19 and its impact on daily American life.

Video Transcript

[MUSIC PLAYING]

ANDY SERWER: I'm here with noted pollster and political consultant, former Microsoft executive, and much more, Mark Penn-- and also chairman of the Harris Poll, which is why I'm talking right now because you have a new poll out. Mark, nice to see you.

MARK PENN: Thank you. I think that during this crisis, at the Harris Poll, we're trying to kind of check in three times a week to see what the American public is thinking and how moods and attitudes are changing.

ANDY SERWER: Your latest poll says that 1 in 5 Americans want to go back to work once the government says, it's all clear. But doesn't that mean 4 out of 5 Americans don't want to go back?

MARK PENN: Well, I actually think that people want to go back to work generally. I mean, I think that was kind of the-- Those are the people most eager to go to work, so 22%. Now, not everyone is employed. So if you-- if you kind of look at it, there's probably 60%. So a third of the workforce is saying, look, I want to get back to work as quickly as possible.

Some people are not affected at all, you know, in terms of the work, and some people are affected dramatically. About 80%-- you know, somewhere between 70% and 80% are saying that their employer has taken some action, you know, related to-- related to the virus at this point.

But I don't see it as a public reluctance to go back to work. I see it as a public that's so-- they're listening to instructions, by and large. They're-- they're doing what they-- what they can. I think the polls are very clear. They have changed their fundamental activities in fundamental ways in cooperation with the government, by and large.

ANDY SERWER: It seems like cruise ships and airlines may have a tougher time recovering, according to some of the work you've done.

MARK PENN: Yes, I think people were most reluctant to go back to cruises more than anything else, and to fly. I was actually somewhat surprised at how high the-- the numbers were, whereas people are going to the grocery store today, going to, you know, places that would-- that would [INAUDIBLE]. People see airports and particularly planes as-- I was surprised that they really fear that.

So the airlines are going to have their job cut out for them. I think the cruise industry has made it through this time and time again. They know that they have their job cut out. But I was surprised at about 80% or so that really said that they were reluctant to go back very quickly, you know, to flying.

ANDY SERWER: Right. And you also found out that so many people are using technology at home-- maybe not surprising there, but just a real explosion of use.

MARK PENN: Well, I think that, again, there has been an explosive use of technology as we're-- as we're on, you know-- as we're on here with the internet. I think-- I think America's infrastructure, particularly in the cities, for this was better than anyone expected. I know in-- you know, I'm also CEO of MDC and of The Stagwell Group. We have around 9,000 people. And so we had to move pretty seamlessly.

I know as a former Microsoft executive, I'm quite happy that the Teams program is working as well as it is. We're on Skype now, which is another Microsoft product. These things are all seeing, 400%, 600%, 700% increases in usage right now.

ANDY SERWER: Some people are saying that young people are not being as compliant with the recommendations. What did you find?

MARK PENN: Yeah, we have found, you know, consistently that young people were-- were chomping-- were, on the one hand, more afraid, right, in some instances than older people were, but also-- but also more defiant, you know, in terms of the numbers. I think some of these differences are coming down. I think we saw them in some of the earlier waves.

There were pretty stark differences between-- between young people. But I think some of those are disappearing. Where young people had kind of very differing attitudes was-- was mostly on whether or not corporations should really be-- corporations should be helped out. Young people were the most against, you know, corporations being helped, and older-- older folks were the most supportive or sympathetic to the kind of financial assistance that we expect to occur.

ANDY SERWER: Are Americans concerned about shortages, Mark?

MARK PENN: Yes. Americans are definitely concerned about shortages. And-- and some of that concern, I think, will probably come down, you know, in the next week or two depending upon what develops. But 80% or 90% are concerned of shortages. Obviously, everyone knows that we've been through the-- the toilet paper, you know, scares and so forth. And we had-- I think that was-- I'm trying to remember the number one. That was like the second-most scared, thought-about item in terms of-- in terms of shortages.

But they-- by and large, a majority is concerned that there'll be shortages. I don't think that-- I do think, actually, that there will be fewer shortages than people think.

ANDY SERWER: Wait, if TP was number two, what was number one?

MARK PENN: I'm trying to remember exactly what was number one. The TP was-- was only-- I'll have to pull it out for you, but--

ANDY SERWER: OK.

MARK PENN: But TP was number two.

ANDY SERWER: All right. So to speak, I guess you should say.

[LAUGHTER]

So what about-- what about President Trump? How is his approval rating during all this?

MARK PENN: Well, Trump's getting approval of what he's doing in the 60s. Let me just say that on the one hand, people are becoming increasingly impatient with overall-- the overall government, and in the waves of polling, more saying, look, I want the government action now. It's more-- it should be bigger.

But that's different from the Trump approval, which started out mostly on the negative side, is running in the-- in the 60s now. I mean, people are very supportive, think that their governors and their locals are doing an even better job. But the truth of the matter is that the president was in a highly polarized situation in which only 10% of Democrats or less would ever approve of anything he did, and that's up to 40%.

So there's-- the president is reaching across a partisan divide that he's been unable to breach and anything that he has done, you know, through this, through what he's doing now.

ANDY SERWER: And finally, Mark, the president has invited some controversy-- lately-- over getting people back to work, wanting people to get back to work. Some people would say too quickly. What is your take on that?

MARK PENN: I think the public is looking for-- for leadership. I did an op-ed the other day about a 60 plan-- 60-day plan of getting back to work, that it's really about two things-- the numbers of what happens to the virus itself, and that might have to be on a community-by-community basis, and the preparations that are made for people to be safe with masks and other things, the way they've done in other countries.

Public expects things to get back to normal in about four months. Right? And the public is going to, I think, look to government and this combination of health care people and economists. Look, I worked very closely with President Clinton, and the president has a range of advisors.

And a health care advisor is always going to be 100%, I want to keep 100% of the people healthy. And the economic advisor is going to be, I want to keep 100% of the people employed. Right? And so everybody comes at it with a different perspective. It is the president's job to reconcile those different perspectives and put together a plan with some kind of balance.

And I think we've seen the president say, OK, we're going to do what the health care folks say. We're going to basically, you know, let-- give power to governors, have stay-in-place in our major-- in our major occupations, close down huge parts of the economy. But at a certain point, this has to be balanced with what the economists want to do, and that is the job for both the president and the leadership. And genuinely, no individual at the White House can be trusted with that. They all have perspectives that come from the discipline that they know.

ANDY SERWER: I think the president was saying two weeks now, Mark. And so you feel like 60 days is kind of a responsible middle ground?

MARK PENN: Yeah, I think that-- look, things went down in stages. They're going to have to come up in stages. So a 60-day plan may mean that it's really 120 days before people are-- If I look at the polling, wow, people are not going to be comfortable flying here for, you know, three or four months. The airlines are going to have to come through with a convincing plan in order to-- in order to say, hey, we can keep-- we can keep you safe on this airplane. They don't have that right now.

But I think that you're going to look at work-- you know, the workplaces come back, you know, more and more, you know, then the question of, will schools begin to go back? Then the question is, what will happen, you know, maybe even before that, some leisure activities? And then what will happen with-- with restaurants, right?

And so I think it's a stage thing, and I also think that it's-- it's premature right now because the numbers are rising. The whole point is, you know, when the numbers start to come down, whether this policy is working, to begin community by community an appropriate plan.

And so I think the president is on a good wavelength kind of making-- also giving people some hope. I think that people were beginning to get, oh, let's cancel everything for the rest of the year, and they know that that would be an economic Armageddon if that happened. And I think now things are kind of coming back. Now, I have offices in China and Korea, you know, across, and those offices are back 100%.

ANDY SERWER: Right.

MARK PENN: So they were out 30 days. They were out a full 30 days, and they-- they came back. And their orders and so forth they're receiving have come back pretty strongly. So-- so are China and Korea ultimately going to do a better job than America? That's the big question.

ANDY SERWER: All right. Mark Penn, chairman of Harris Poll, thank you so much for joining us today.

MARK PENN: Thank you.