How the US payroll revisions could impact the market

Many investors are awaiting the benchmark revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which could change how Wall Street has viewed jobs data over the past year. How does the Bureau do this and what could some of the changes be?

Market Domination Anchor Julie Hyman joins Asking For A Trend to break down preliminary US payroll revisions and how it can impact the market.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video Transcript

The next monthly jobs report doesn't come out until September, but tomorrow morning at 10.

A MA big release could change all of the jobs data for the past year.

Yahoo FINANCES Julie Hyman has more details with today's chart of the day.

Thank you just before we get to the chart, let me explain what we're talking about here.

And if you've been watching us for the past couple of days, you've heard us talk about this.

This is called the benchmark revisions Coming to us, um, from the Bureau of Labour Statistics, part of the Department of Labour.

That's who releases the payrolls report.

So every year they go back over all of the payrolls data and revise it based on data from something called the quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

That's based on state unemployment, tax records, um, insurance tax records, and it is seen as sort of more comprehensive.

So that's why these come.

You get a preliminary reading now and then you get the actual revision, another vision that comes out next March and again affects the prior year, and you get big swings traditionally in the numbers as the on the basis of these benchmark revision.

So here's just a sampling from the BLS Bloomberg Crunch.

The numbers here in 2018, and after this revision there were 43,000 jobs added, but that's the smallest of the last several years.

A big downward revision in 2019 took down the number of jobs added by 501,000 a big addition in 2022 post pandemic of 462,000 and then last year, a decrease of 306,000.

So you get the idea of why this could be a big deal.

The anticipation for tomorrow's release is that it will take down the number of jobs added in the past year by quite a bit now there are a bunch of different estimates here.

Goldman Sachs said.

The number could be as high as a million jobs subtracted, but they say you could see at least 600,000 Wells.

Fargo agrees with that assessment.

Here on JP.

Morgan says only about 360,000 decrease.

Regardless, what this data is exposed to expected to reveal is that the job market was actually even weaker than especially the Fed was counting on.

We talked to Quincy Crosby of LP L yesterday about this report, and she talked about its significance.

But the fact is, if it looks as if the numbers that have been associated with the monthly reports payroll reports have been incorrect in the number of jobs that have been created, Chairman Powell is going to have to up his concern about the labour market.

And that is also going to be factored in as to whether or not there will be 50 basis points versus 25.

So in other words, we probably will hear J pal talk about this on Friday in his Jackson Cole commentary.

Now, to put all of this in perspective, By the way, if you look over the past 12 months through March, uh, 2.9 million jobs were added to the US economy, so even if you had a million jobs subtracted from that, you would still see what most economists estimate or or would assess as a relatively healthy job market.

But we'll be watching these numbers close closely at 10 a.m. tomorrow, Josh, we sure will Thank you, Julie