Chances of Biden's re-election are much lower now: Policy expert

The first debate between President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump has impacted both candidates chances of winning, with Biden's numbers dropping.

Pimco Head of US Public Policy Libby Cantrill joins Market Domination to give insight into the first presidential debate, how it impacted Biden's chances to get elected, and the potential for him to step down from the race.

"I will just say is that in terms of polling, in the next few weeks, we know that...the swing voters really don't like-- they're called double haters for a reason. They really don't like Joe Biden, but they don't also like President Trump and so where does that potential support go? And I think if we see an uptick in the third party figures that actually could be, pretty interesting because a third party candidate is not likely to be the next president of United States, but could very well be a spoiler in this very close margin race."

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video Transcript

In Thursday night's debate, a soft spoken and halting Biden did little to assuage fears that the 81 year old is capable of serving for four more years, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person, uh eligible for what I've been able to do with the, uh, with, with, with the COVID, excuse me, with, um, dealing with everything we have to do with.

Uh, what if we finally beat Medicare?

Thank you, President Biden with us.

Now, Libby Cantrill Pimco, head of us public policy, Libby, uh, you're the perfect person to talk to about this.

I'm so happy to have you on the show today.

Uh, maybe just start big picture, Libby.

You watched that debate.

What did you make of it, Libby?

What, what were your big takeaways?

Yeah.

Well, I'm adding that clip, encapsulated a lot of it.

I mean, that was a very low moment for the president.

Um, you know, unfortunately for his campaign, there were many of those moments, even in the best moments.

He was having a hard time making a point landing an insult.

Clearly, he had rehearsed a lot of the comments that he did make last night.

Um, but they just did not gain, they did not gain traction.

And to your point, none of what we saw last night reassured voters that not only is Joe Biden, uh can he make it through 90 minutes?

But he can't make it necessary through, through four years.

But I think that the most important thing here for markets is that Joe Biden doesn't seem to be indicating that he is going anywhere.

And I think that that folks, uh and I, I could say it's sort of the West Wing effect.

They do sort of think that some how the party, the Democratic Party is, this is sort of this big conspiracy and that there will be somebody else put on the ticket.

Uh That may be the case, but it seems unlikely.

This is Joe Biden's decision to make and mechanically speaking, he is the person the candidate who controls all of the delegates, 99% of the Democratic delegates, uh Joe Biden controls so only Joe Biden can release those delegates and allow them to support another, another candidate.

So mechanically here, very difficult, not impossible but difficult to see at this point.

Uh Joe Biden dropping out of the race.

The last thing I will just say is that the tell has been in minority leader Hakeem Jeffries in former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and former President Obama.

They have all tweeted over the last few hours that yes he did not have a good debate, but that does not make him a bad president and that folks, should he focusing on his values?

Not necessarily on what he said last night.

So, we'll see if that actually gains any traction with the voters, but for now it looks like President Biden is absolutely in this race.

Yeah.

I mean, it was pretty remarkable this morning to see all pretty much unanimous reaction on the OP ED pages of the New York Times.

In contrast with those surrogates, you were just talking about who all of whom pretty much called for Biden to step aside and let me maybe this is a West Wing kind of question.

But if indeed, Biden does not make the decision to step aside and relinquish those delegates.

Is there any path for someone else to become the candidate?

You know, there was a path in the 19 sixties before the parties changed the primary rules, but now the primary voters have voted and they have voted for for Joe Biden.

And as a result, Joe Biden has gotten the vast majority of the delegates at stake.

He will technically be the nominee.

So unless the DNC changes the rules uh which you just cannot see happening again, Joe Biden will be the nominee, you know, again, unless he makes the decision.

Now, donors could put pressure on him.

Pundits could put pressure on him.

I do think again, a tell is that the fact that President Obama has come out in support of Joe Biden is very important because he is probably another person who could have put pressure on him to drop out.

But that does not look like it's going to be the case.

So a long way of answering your question.

No.

At this point, there really is no other mechanism to push Joe Biden to put mechanically to push Joe Biden out.

What do you think Libby Biden actually does now though?

I mean, post debate, what do you think, what shifts or changes in strategy or messaging would you be looking for?

Yeah.

So I think a couple of things, I mean, one is, he's actually just had a rally in North Carolina and of course, it was, it was based on a teleprompter, but the Joe Biden of the State of the Union back in March, which was much more on display today, certainly than he was yesterday.

So I think that the campaign will just try to push him out as much as possible.

I don't think we will see another debate.

We will see the, there's supposed to be another debate scheduled on September 10th.

Of course, I'm not sure whether President Trump really thinks that there's a lot of benefit for him to actually go into that debate given how well he did last yesterday.

So, um you know, that that is something else to be, to be watching.

The other thing I will just say is in terms of polling in the next few weeks, you know, we know that folks, the swing voters really don't like, they're called double haters for a reason.

Really don't like Joe Biden, but they don't also like President Trump.

And so where does that potential support go?

And I think if we see an uptick in the third party figures, that actually could be pretty interesting because not a third party candidate is not likely to be the next President United States, but could very well be a spoiler in this very close margin.

Right.

And then the other thing I would just say is that the choice of running mate for president and Trump important just because again, the both of these gentlemen are of advanced age, but I actually think the vice president's debate will be really important.

That hasn't been necessarily scheduled yet.

We're thinking of, uh, end of July early August time frame, but that also could be important just I think the stakes, the focus on their running mates now, um, I think are probably going to be, you know, a bit clearer and a little bit starker after last night.