|Bid||103.65 x N/A|
|Ask||103.66 x N/A|
|Day's Range||103.36 - 104.14|
|52 Week Range||90.10 - 107.91|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.99|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||12.00|
|Earnings Date||Aug 21, 2019|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||4.08 (4.02%)|
|1y Target Est||112.07|
TORONTO, June 18, 2019 /CNW/ - Today, RBC announced its newest Team RBC brand ambassador – rising Canadian basketball star, RJ Barrett. Barrett is anticipated to be a top overall pick in the upcoming 2019 NBA Draft on June 20th, as well as an essential part of Canada's Senior Men's National (basketball) Team. Barrett joins an impressive group of Team RBC ambassadors, including Dustin Johnson, Brooke Henderson, Mark McMorris, and Penny Oleksiak, among others.
TORONTO, June 18, 2019 /CNW/ - To help Canadian businesses unlock greater business value and capitalize on advancements in smart technologies and cloud solutions, RBC and Microsoft today announced the launch of RBC's Go Digital program. The program is designed to remove key barriers which businesses have cited as preventing or delaying their digital transformation. Go Digital offers a suite of turnkey technology solutions leveraging the power and security of the Microsoft cloud and skilled Partner Network, as well as innovation financing and tailored advice from RBC to help businesses embark on their digital transformation journey with greater ease and confidence.
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.The London Court of International Arbitration ruled in favor of a group of Russian investors in their legal battle with besieged private equity investor Michael Calvey in a decision that could force him to give up control of a key asset.The court found Artem Avetisyan’s Finvision had the right to exercise an option to buy a 10% stake in Bank Vostochny, RBC newspaper reported Monday, citing a copy of the ruling. That stake would give Avetisyan and his partners a majority of the bank’s shares. The court also ordered Baring Vostok Capital Partners to pay 550,000 pounds ($689,000) for the other side’s legal fees, RBC said, citing Finvision’s press service.This decision is a further setback for Calvey, an American private equity investor in Russia who is currently under house arrest in his Moscow apartment. A Russian court ordered Baring Vostok to give up control of the 10% stake earlier this month. Calvey’s fund dismissed that ruling, arguing the London proceedings took precedence over the Russian ones under their shareholder agreement with Avetisyan’s company.The arrest of Calvey, a veteran foreign investor in Russia and a longtime defender of Kremlin policies, shocked the investment community and cast a shadow over the country’s annual showcase for overseas business this month.The dispute, which has resulted in the February arrest of Calvey and several of his associates, centers around a 2016 merger between Bank Vostochny and Avetisyan’s Uniastrum Bank. Baring Vostok argued it was not obliged to cede control because it alleges Avetisyan stripped assets from his lender before the union was complete.Preliminary Ruling“The case in London isn’t over,” Baring Vostok’s press service said in a statement. “The interim decision by the Tribunal only relates to the process of using the option, while the main dispute - over whether the option has legal power following the fraud that took place before the banks merged - will be heard in January 2020.”Finvision couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.Calvey and five associates were arrested on charges they stole 2.5 billion rubles ($39 million) from the bank after an ally of Avetisyan lodged a criminal complaint. Three of the men remain in jail. Baring Vostok denies wrongdoing and says the Russian group is using the probe to take over Vostochny with little investment. Baring Vostok’s funds have invested at least $400 million in the bank over the last decade.The London court ruled that Finvision was in its rights to seek a judgment in Russia. It did not comment about the criminal charges Calvey faces other than to say it was a sign of the severity of the dispute, according to RBC.To contact the reporter on this story: Jake Rudnitsky in Moscow at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Torrey Clark at email@example.com, Gregory L. WhiteFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Banks like Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY) seem fairly valued, but investors need to account for a shifting economic cycle that could affect the industry.
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.Volkswagen AG’s plan to list its truck division later this month will test whether it can pull off a feat that was once unthinkable for the German automotive giant: get smaller.For decades, the world’s biggest carmaker only knew how to expand -- adding Bentley luxury cruisers, Ducati racing bikes and Scania heavy trucks while taking its network of factories well past the 100 mark and its headcount over 640,000.Even in the face of the debilitating diesel-cheating scandal in 2015, the manufacturer didn’t trim its portfolio, bolstering investment in electric cars instead and even creating a new division for mobility services.Now with the pace of change in the auto industry quickening, Volkswagen is trying its hand at trimming the empire.If the listing of a minority stake in Traton SE -- a truck and bus maker with three vehicle brands and valued at as much as 16.5 billion euros ($18.5 billion)-- goes well, it would give Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess more sway to balance the often diverging interests of VW shareholders including the Porsche and Piech owner family, Lower Saxony and powerful labor unions.Healthy Valuation“Traton’s IPO pricing suggests a healthy valuation which puts a spotlight on VW’s significant sum-of-its-parts disconnect,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said in a note. Concerns over the company’s ability to switch to electric vehicles is “unfairly” weighing on its share price, the analyst said.Volkswagen rose 0.2% to 141.42 euros at 11:46 a.m. in Frankfurt trading, taking gains this year to 1.8%.For now, Diess is seeking deeper technology partnerships and the possible sale of assets like transmission maker Renk AG and MAN Energy Solutions, which develops engines. A successful Traton listing, targeted for June 28, could even spark rival Daimler AG to follow suit with a carve-out of its own truck business.The truck group comprises three main assets, Scania, MAN and Volkswagen-branded budget trucks sold in South America and Africa, as well as a unit offering digital services to fleet operators. With 29 production and assembly sites globally, the business last year sold 223,000 vehicles. While that’s 14% more than a year earlier, it’s less than half of Daimler’s truck division, the world’s biggest.Volkswagen is offering 50 million Traton shares at 27 euros to 33 euros apiece, plus a possible over-allotment of 7.5 million shares, meaning at the top end of the price range, the sale would raise as much as 1.9 billion euros. Here are the key points in one of the biggest initial public offerings in Europe this year:Sales PitchTraton is looking to woo investors by combining the best-in-class technology and strong margins of the Scania unit with the prospect of a turnaround at MAN and growth potential in key markets, according to company presentations and research from advising banks seen by Bloomberg.The plan includes the following four pillars:StrengthsChief Executive Officer Andreas Renschler, 61, is the mastermind behind Traton. After helping to establish Daimler’s commercial vehicles business as the world’s largest, he was lured to Volkswagen in 2014. Despite the partly overlapping operations, he’s improved earnings over the past four years, mainly by enforcing closer cooperation between long-standing rivals Scania and MAN. Investor interest in Traton will largely be a bet on Renschler’s veteran skills to deliver in the cyclical truck market.The timing of the listing, which was delayed earlier this year, is complicated by global volatility. The window may be as good as it gets. Rival Volvo Group -- the main pure-play competitor -- has gained 26% this year.“It’s no secret that the market environment is very volatile,” VW Chief Financial Officer Frank Witter told reporters on Monday. “It’s not ideal, but it’s not bad either.”VW remains open to sell more Traton stock at a later stage, up to a maximum stake of 24.9%, if market conditions are supportive, he said.WeaknessesTraton has only small bridgeheads in the key North American and Chinese markets, and the prospects for expanding those positions face obstacles.In North America -- the truck industry’s largest profit pool -- Traton merely owns a 16.8% shareholding in Navistar International Corp., which doesn’t it allow it to do much. Lifting the stake will cost money and add complexity. Meanwhile, Navistar still faces fierce competition from market leaders -- Daimler’s Freightliner, Volvo’s Mack and Paccar Inc.While Daimler and Volvo have functioning production joint ventures in China, the world’s biggest truck market, Traton’s cooperation with Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd., where its holds a 25% stake through MAN, has yet to deliver the hoped-for results.Alliances can fall short of aspirations to create economies of scale, with the recent tensions at the Renault-Nissan Alliance a fresh reminder of the difficulties in uniting separate cultures. Traton also has a cooperation with Hino Motors Ltd., a Toyota Group company, on electric technology, product development and purchasing.MAN has long attempted a turnaround, but improvements have been tepid compared to an aggressive restructuring at Volvo that doubled margins within roughly three years. MAN’s production footprint in high-cost Germany and a lineup that includes less-profitable medium-duty trucks limits the potential for improvement.(Updates with CFO comment in 14th paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Christoph Rauwald in Frankfurt at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Anthony Palazzo at email@example.com, Chris Reiter, Elisabeth BehrmannFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- This week’s Federal Reserve decision will be the most consequential one yet under the leadership of Chair Jerome Powell.Sure, Fed officials will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged, and they won’t do anything with the central bank’s balance sheet beyond what they have previously indicated. But the move in financial markets has been so swift, with traders so convinced that policy makers will lower interest rates imminently, that every change in their statement’s wording, every syllable uttered by Powell during his press conference, and any tweak in the “dot plot” will be scrutinized as much as ever. After all, vast sums of money (not to mention strategists’ reputations) are riding on a decidedly dovish shift.It truly seems as if bond traders have gone too far and are setting themselves up for disappointment. They have priced in a 92% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in July and 2.75 cuts by the end of the year. Barclays Plc strategists would say that’s too conservative — they’re calling for a 50-basis-point cut next month and an additional 25 basis points in September in one of the more aggressive Wall Street forecasts. Basically, as Michael Purves at Weeden & Co. put it, markets are “almost taunting the Fed.”Make no mistake, Fed officials have a number of reasons for caution. While President Donald Trump tabled threatened tariffs on Mexico, a potentially drawn-out trade war with China looms large. U.S. inflation continues to fall short of the central bank’s stated 2% target, while the University of Michigan's gauge of expected price changes fell to an unprecedented low late last week. And the bedrock of this rate-hiking cycle — a seemingly unstoppable labor market — is showing early signs of slowing, with American companies adding just 75,000 workers in May, missing estimates for a 175,000 gain.All of this lines up with Powell’s pivot since the end of last year, from signaling further interest-rate increases and keeping the balance sheet runoff on “automatic pilot” to being patient and winding down the bank’s “quantitative tightening.” He and other policy makers have clearly indicated this is as far as they’ll go in tightening monetary policy this time around.That’s not the same thing as saying they’re ready to begin easing.The problem is, bond traders (and, admittedly, financial journalists) don’t care about that nuance. Conviction that the Fed is done hiking, by definition, means that the next move in interest rates will be lower, making it a matter of “when,” not “if.” After Powell said earlier this month that “as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” it was perceived as opening the door to cutting interest rates, even though he didn’t really say that. RBC Capital Markets had a brilliant report that noted the “weak” May jobs number was actually perfectly consistent with the Fed’s outlook. No matter; traders scurried to wager on easing sooner rather than later in the wake of the payrolls data. So here we are, with markets brazenly taunting the Fed. Will Powell dare to defy them?Unfortunately, recent history doesn’t provide a clear answer. In January, I wrote that the Fed was officially at the market’s mercy, given a decision that was seen as giving in to the late-2018 equities tantrum. Two-year Treasury yields fell about 12 basis points in the following 27 hours. In March, it was more of the same, with central bankers managing to beat traders’ lofty dovish expectations by shifting the dot plot to show zero interest-rate increases in 2019, compared with two in December. Again, two-year yields tumbled, ending the week 15 basis points lower than they were before the decision.Things went differently last month. After what looked like another bond rally in the making, Powell managed to entirely reverse it, and then some, by highlighting “transitory factors” keeping inflation subdued. “Our baseline view remains that with a strong job market and continued growth, inflation will return to 2% over time,” he said. Two-year yields climbed eight basis points in the next 27 hours, to 2.35%, a level that almost exactly aligns with the current effective fed funds rate. In other words, bond investors were more or less on board with the idea of a “patient” Fed holding rates where they are.Obviously, the outlook has changed since then, but not nearly to the extent that market pricing would indicate. As one example, Citigroup Inc.’s U.S. economic surprise index is at the same level it was on May 1, the day of the Fed’s most recent decision. The persistently negative reading is hardly a cause for celebration — it signals data have been worse than expected — but it could just as likely indicate that forecasters have to come to terms with the expansion turning 10 years old and serve as an early warning that the economy is rolling over. As RBC’s Tom Porcelli and Jacob Oubina noted, it’s all about the narrative.Given all that, which Powell will investors get? The one who gives them what they want and more, or the one who is willing to push back? I believe that deep down, Powell would strongly prefer to keep interest rates where they are and only begin easing when he and other officials observe clear and persistent signs of weakness. The U.S. economy is not at that point yet. It doesn’t help that Trump continues to pound the table for lower rates, in what has become a now-commonplace break from recent presidential history, while simultaneously trumpeting the “tremendous potential our Country has for GROWTH.”If I had to guess, the dot plot will turn flat, with the current 2.375% median fed funds rate extending through at least 2021. That’s the definition of patience. Then, Powell will reiterate in his press conference that the Fed stands ready to act as appropriate. In doing so, he preserves the option to lower interest rates as soon as July or September, without making any sort of explicit commitment. If that’s seen as insufficiently dovish, as some rates strategists suggest, then tough.Powell, at the helm of the world’s most influential central bank, can afford to be more deliberate than traders looking to get ahead of the next big move. At the same time, the cacophony of calls for rate cuts is tough to shut out. Should he capitulate entirely, he will be permanently viewed as a Fed chair who was broken by bond traders. To contact the author of this story: Brian Chappatta at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at email@example.comThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Following these rules with a portfolio invested in Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY), Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (TSX:CP)(NYSE:CP), and one other stock is the easiest way to get you to $1,000,000.
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TFSA investors should know that when the price of a dividend titan like Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY) gets cheaper, it’s always an excellent buying opportunity.
TORONTO , June 14, 2019 /CNW/ - RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM Inc.) today announced June 2019 cash distributions for unitholders of RBC ETFs. RBC ETF cash distributions for June are as follows: ...
Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY) stock has had a mediocre performance this year compared to how strong the markets have been, and things might not be getting any better.
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TORONTO, June 13, 2019 /CNW/ - Today, RBC announced a new collaboration with global lifestyle brand October's Very Own (OVO). Together, RBC and OVO will partner to open the popular OVO Summit to the Canadian public for the first time. Taking place on Friday, August 2, 2019, OVO Summit is an immersive conference for Canadian creatives and lifestyle entrepreneurs looking to grow their careers, hone their skills and make a lasting impact on the creative economy in Canada.
TORONTO, June 12, 2019 /CNW/ - Indigenous youth are shaping the future for Canada, stepping forward with bold ideas rooted in culture in order to create a new way forward for their peoples and communities. "Indigenous youth are at the forefront of reconciliation, and so we at RBC are determined to listen to them and be guided by their perspectives so that we can offer our help and partnership in a genuine way," said Dale Sturges, National Director, Indigenous Financial Services, RBC.
Top TSX Index stocks such as Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY) have made some long-term investors rich. Here's how.
TORONTO , June 12, 2019 /CNW/ - RBC iShares today expanded its exchange traded fund lineup with the launch of the RBC Canadian Discount Bond ETF (the "ETF"). The ETF, managed by RBC Global Asset ...
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The arrest of investigative journalist Ivan Golunov in Moscow marks an important inflection point in relations between President Vladimir Putin’s regime and Russia’s various elites.The Kremlin, initially blindsided by the outcry at the reporter’s detention, could end up benefiting from it all, and the more liberal part of the pro-regime establishment may gain an advantage over its overeager security apparatus.Golunov is an unlikely central figure for such a potentially momentous story. Until June 7, he wasn’t well-known outside Moscow’s journalistic circles. The self-effacing 36-year-old was, however, highly respected by colleagues – not least because of his ability to pull on a thread nearly invisible to others and spin it out into a stunningly thorough investigation.Golunov possesses that rare combination of pedantry and fearlessness that makes the perfect investigative journalist. He applied his skills to subjects few others dared approach: The landfill business, dominated by mobsters and connected oligarchs; the cemetery mafias; the loan sharks; Moscow’s city government. (Meduza, the Riga-based outfit for which Golunov had recently worked, has published some samples of his reporting in English.)None of Golunov’s investigations were expressly political. They dealt with the minutiae of a society based on an amalgam of organized crime, mid-level bureaucracy and corrupt law enforcement. It wasn’t his job to discuss this system’s origins or its beneficiaries and benefactors in the Kremlin. He dug and analyzed; he didn’t editorialize.On Thursday, he filed a long-awaited story on the Moscow funeral business which implicated a number of law enforcement officials, including some officers in the FSB secret police, in running a protection racket. Then he went out to meet another reporter. On his way, he was picked up by plainclothes police, searched, shown a bag of white powder purportedly found in his backpack, stuffed into a car and taken to his Moscow apartment.A warrantless search of his home turned up more bags of powder. He was taken into custody, roughed up (though very slightly by Russian standards) and told he was being charged with possessing drugs with intention to supply. Only at 3:30 on Friday morning did the cops call one of Golunov’s friends, another investigative journalist, to say he had been detained.I have known Golunov for a long time and was, at one point, his editor. I had never heard of him using, much less selling, any drugs (and editors in Russia have long made it their business to find out about such staff-related risks). When I worked with him, he didn’t even drink alcohol. He was a stickler for the rules, acutely aware of the caution a person in his trade must exercise. Besides, he had no taste for luxury and little use for money; he ran on intense curiosity. To me, and to everyone else who knew him, the charges looked preposterous. There could be no doubt that the drugs had been planted, and that Golunov was being targeted for his work.In Russia, it’s very hard to mount a successful defense to such charges. The country’s harsh drug laws set low thresholds on the amount of a controlled substance it is a felony to possess. Fabricated charges are routinely used as a weapon against inconvenient individuals.Golunov’s case turned out to be special, though. For Moscow journalists, already facing harsh restrictions on their work in addition to much economic pressure, not standing up for him was unthinkable. It’s not just that many knew him as I did and found the charges impossible to believe; anyone could be next in line. The ensuing protest was both impossible to miss – and curiously cautious. Many news outlets effectively boycotted coverage of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, traditionally Putin’s favorite international event of the year. On Friday, the event was meant to be a demonstration of Putin’s close friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Golunov beat Putin in both social media and traditional media mentions. Journalists stood in a disciplined line in front of Moscow’s police headquarters, waiting their turn to hold a sign demanding his freedom. Under Russian law, it’s an offense to hold a rally without permission, but single-person pickets are allowed without prior notification.Initially, the Kremlin took a tough line. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov pointed to a series of police photographs suggesting Golunov had run a drug lab at his modest apartment. It later transpired that the pictures had been taken elsewhere.The Russian Foreign Ministry, for its part, responded to tweets in Golunov’s defense from various U.S. and European officials by saying they should instead worry about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.But as early as Friday, some propagandists for the Russian regime began showing an unusual degree of sympathy for the investigative journalist. Tina Kandelaki, TV personality and head of a state-owned sports channel, posted on Telegram that she didn’t believe the charges against Golunov. Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the propaganda channel RT, declared that the authorities must answer “very, very, VERY many questions” about the reporter’s case.It was obvious early on to these experienced propagandists that the Kremlin was losing points because of the arrest, which somebody much lower down the food chain must have engineered. Putin, after all, makes a show of being intolerant of corruption, and officials, especially regional ones, are often charged with graft and given long prison sentences. Since Golunov isn’t an opposition figure, the Kremlin had little to gain by affirming the charges and keeping him locked up; instead, it had a chance to lash out at corrupt law enforcement officials and win popularity points. On Saturday, a judge placed Golunov under house arrest – an all but unprecedented act of leniency for someone charged with a drug offense carrying a minimum 10-year jail term. But journalists continued protesting: For an innocent person, any kind of confinement is too harsh.On Monday, Russia’s three top business newspapers, Vedomosti, Kommersant and RBC carried identical front pages for the first time in their fiercely competitive history, each proclaiming “We Are Ivan Golunov.” They also carried a cautious joint statement that they “didn’t rule out” that Golunov (who had worked for two of the three publications) was being pursued for his work.But by then, outrage on behalf of the mistreated reporter clearly had been officially sanctioned. Journalists at the two main state television channels, who never say anything without permission, demanded that “conclusive proof” of Golunov’s crimes be presented or he be freed immediately. Also on Monday, Putin’s human rights ombudswoman, Tatyana Moskalkova, officially reported to Putin on the case. In her opinion, Golunov’s arrest “discredits the whole practice of investigating drug crimes.”This tees up the ball nicely for Putin to hit before or during his annual call-in show with voters, scheduled for June 20. He faces a simple choice: Listen to his propagandists, let Golunov go and order reprisals against the corrupt cops – or side with his security apparatus and cover up the embarrassment with increased toughness.The former is more likely: Putin is worried about a steep drop in his ratings and eager to show that he is happy to side with people who protest injustice – as long as they don’t demand his overthrow. So far, the protests have remained within the loyalist framework, and a good Czar has a chance to show magnanimity. That’s good for Golunov, and of course the Moscow journalists understand this. That’s why they have been so cautious in their public utterances.If Putin holds up his thumb, I would be happy to see an honest, highly professional colleague walk free. At the same time, such a development would be a victory for the regime’s smooth spin doctors over its uncouth security elite. In the last few years, the latter has acted with increasing impunity, undermining the attempts by propagandists and establishment liberals to paint Putin’s Russia as a “normal” country. Golunov’s release could turn into a major talking point for these efforts – and, importantly, it would show dissidents that protest can be effective if it doesn’t turn too radical.Russia, however, wouldn’t move any closer to normalcy. The attempt to domesticate protest is transparently disingenuous, and the enforcers will, of course, fight back, seeking both to prove their loyalty to Putin with more suppression and to line their pockets with a little more skill amid some unwelcome attention.(Corrects date of Golunov’s house arrest in 16th paragraph to Saturday.)To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at email@example.comThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Leonid Bershidsky is Bloomberg Opinion's Europe columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
If you're looking for a quality bank stock, The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)(NYSE:TD) and the Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY) are top picks. Which is best?
Invest like Canada's most secretive billionaires by loading up on Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY) and Nutrien Ltd. (TSX:NTR)(NYSE:NTR) shares.
TORONTO , June 10, 2019 /CNW/ - Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) today announced its intention to redeem all outstanding Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC) 3.04 per cent subordinated debentures ...
Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management Inc., which oversees C$430 billion ($324 billion), says while he doesn’t see signs of a debt crisis in the making, Canada’s households are clearly more stretched in terms of debt and spending than their American counterparts. “There’s just no latent capacity to spend or to buffer a shock in Canada, and the U.S. is very well positioned,” Lascelles said by phone from Toronto. “You could lose your job and you would be okay in the U.S., or rates could go up and you’d be fine, or the economy could turn down and spending could continue.