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Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ)
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DQ is getting caught up in Didi saga and South African covid variant today.
The market is in absolute panic today and throwing the baby put with the bath water so I'll be adding in the last hour today. At this time patience is more important than anything else.
We might see a $3-$4 dividend next year (for a 5-7% yield).
My other China investment is QFIN which has similar yield and long-term growth profile along with low FPE.
Happy Thanksgiving and Good luck to all.
Buying and buying, this stock is too cheap. Over $100 is easily obtainable in a foreseeable future.
This is against all the fundaments. I just can’t believe a company that makes 10 dollars a year is languishing. It is down almost everyday in last 2 weeks. Hope December would bring in some good news for retail investors.
Today is a fake takedown of DQ (down 2.75% on low volume) while other solar stocks like JKS, CSIQ, ENPH & TAN are all up +4 to +9%. Clear manipulation by MMs/Hedge funds.
According to Yahoo estimates, the EPS for the current quarter has risen 25 percent in the last 30 days. In that same time period, the stock price has gone down about 10 percent. Show me any other stock that this is the case. Kind of frustrating, isn't it?
The way the market treats this stock is shameful. If this were any other company this stock would be trading $150-$200.
Sooner or later US market will be open for DQ,but actually DQ does not need US market,because of doing so well.It´s P/E is great and gets better and better.In my opinion it´s matter of time,when DQ goes 100$ and more.Need to be patient.
Imho DQ might be a nice share for wallstreetbets.
I mean...fighting manipulation by MM, hedges and other big shots is their hobby.
Anyone willing to try and start a howl?
Zootopia (2016) - Quit it Garry, You're going to Start a Howl
We need to stay above the 50-day and get above and stay above the 200-day for clear sailing ahead. I think we will be able to do this. I'm a buyer today. If I'm wrong, then I stop loss out at $64 for a small loss and will look to get back in around $45. This thing is worth $150 at least in my opinion.
Price pop today in all the Chinese solar companies due largely to the dropping of the investigation into Chinese solar products from SEA by the Commerce Dept.
But to me there is 1 more good news for solar which is probably overlooked. President Xi just secured the ability for himself to rule China indefinitely through the issuing of the Historical Resolution at the CCP’s plenum. To me this is quite a big positive as he has shown to be quite a big greenie. Carbon emissions reduction commitments and the large desert projects. Also helps that he has great power to push these through. Remember how officials were literally falling over themselves to hit the energy efficiency and reduce emissions targets that exacerbated the coal power shortage recently. I think this bodes well as many officials will be green as they know that’s what Xi wants.
ps maybe the wife is the greenie here
I'm in and out. Bought 1k shares at 62, I'm selling at 64. Chinese EV stocks are where it's at right now until the manipulators start ganging up them. Start building up your margin accounts for the short opportunity in oil stocks.
Last catalyst for this stock to appreciate has been completely dodged by the BidenXi meeting yesterday. In fact that #$%$ Biden actually mentioned Xinjiang whereas his administration , prior to the interview, promised he would stay off hot-button contentious topics such as this. Hence the fall-off in the Solar sector and market in general and especially us given this last topic was raised again.Comparing 2022 forward PE for two other stocks that are very similar as followsFCX: 12A pure play copper Miner (pure commodity) benefiting from global trend to electrification Vis-a-vis EVs, grid upgrades and proliferation of green farms and distributed solar.IE very similar growth and demand for its product compared to DQ . Difference no geopolitical issuesJKS: 17A somewhat commoditized Chinese panel maker with a similar growth prospects is DQ in the same industry. Difference no direct link to Xinjiang and not on any US entity list and also has a factory in the US to possibly benefit from the infrastructure plan of Biden. Downside difference compared to DQ is it has a #$%$ balance sheet and poor marginsDQ: 5.6 s per consensus analyst estimates or 3.4 if you go by DQ CEO statements in the last CCIf DQ can extricate itself from the US entity list related to its ties with Xinjiang, I see it trading at least as favorably as FCX implying close to a 100% upside from here.If also it can prove by the third quarter of next year that it's on its way to making $20 per share for 2022(implied by the CEO comments on Polly prices for 2022 and increased capacity) ,it will easily trump the consensus EPS of $12 thus suggesting another close to 100% upside even trading at the same multiple.If hopefully both the above can occur we could see close to 400% upside a year from now.And I see this scenario as probable not possible.Bottom line for all you Long's hang in there I think we will be rewarded a year from now unless of course some black swan event happens and the US and China start nuking each other
DQ is down in Shanghai stock exchange too. It is down by 5% this week alone.
Check code 688303.SS
REC Silicon CEO (Norway/US company) giving opinion on Poly prices (again, great news for DQ).....
That will probably resolve coming -- making that polysilicon prices will come down something -- somewhat. But to my mind, it will never come back to the $10, which has been previously. And the reason why is that all this polysilicon is based upon subsidized power.
Subsidized power has been the basis for the business case in China, not only for polysilicon, but also for polysilicon and also for the ingot and wafers.
When you look to the PV value chain, the most power intensive part of the value chain is polysilicon, where Siemens probably is around 40% of the cost in the polysilicon and somewhat less, but still very important making ingots.
For China to continue to subsidize this kind of industry seems out to be economically viable. China is the biggest importer of energy, oil, gas and coal. If they are going to meet also their target on the CO2, power prices has to come up. And if power prices comes up, it's doubtful that the polysilicon prices will come down. Prices around $20 to $25 long term is what is required.
China is pressuring DiDi to delist. Could be real bad tomorrow for all Chinese stocks. The trade war is getting worse. The U.S. added more Chinese companies on the blacklist.
History shows that Chinese stocks are up nice towards Lunar New Year!
DQ XPEV BIDU will rise nicely guys!
I'm a buyer here. Chart looks great.
Investor's Business Daily - "Daqo New Energy is now outperforming 97% of all stocks in terms of the most important fundamental and technical stock-picking criteria.Its Accumulation/Distribution Rating of A- shows heavy buying by institutional investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, over the last 13 weeks."
Simply Wall St - "Daqo New Energy trading at 63.7% below our estimate of its fair value."
Zacks Equity Research - "Daqo`s earnings report translates into a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for the stock."
...might be a first step to adjust DQ valuation at Wallstreet.
...is not directly related to the Uigur ban, but definitely pointing in the right direction.
Few items from the CC:
- Poly ASP Estimates: 30-36 first half next year. Around 30 2nd half next year.
- Capacity Expansion Plans: 180MT by year end 2023. 270MT by year end 2024. 120MT to 130MT guidance for production next year. Targeting 50% annual growth rate year over year.
- Cost structure. 3rd quarter SI powder was 2.5 to 3 a kilo. Current 4th quarter it is 8-10 a kilo. Shortage of power led to shortage of SI powder production. This will offset ASP rise in the 4th Q.
- Dividend: general rule, if listed in China company must follow thier rules. General rule minimum 30 percent when declaring a dividend. Must trade for 1 year and submit an annual report first.
- Looking to source green energy to reach energy quota. Quota has been overallocated. Will allow DQ to produce green poly. Reaching energy quota is challenging. Could slow down expansion.
- FBR (granular poly): quality and purity compared to DQ mono grade - material differences in quality and purity.
- Power Tariff: 4b vs. 4a - both have a fixed 15 year power contract. Price will be the same.
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