|Bid||101.63 x 0|
|Ask||101.85 x 0|
|Day's Range||101.51 - 101.91|
|52 Week Range||88.24 - 106.51|
|Beta (5Y Monthly)||1.08|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||11.76|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||4.24 (4.16%)|
|Ex-Dividend Date||Jan. 30, 2020|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
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(Bloomberg) -- Copper fell to the lowest since September and extended a record slump amid concerns the coronavirus could undo the positive economic impact of easing U.S.-China trade tensions.On Monday, Chinese officials were said to be seeking flexibility on their pledges under the deal signed with the U.S. last month, as the Asian nation struggles to contain the virus that’s already spreading around the world.“This is destroying the narrative of economic green shoots that we saw build up throughout November, December -- the deal with the U.S. and China is basically dead,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “There’s no way China can live up to the agreement of the phase-one deal. So growth is going to be delayed.”Copper futures for March delivery fell 0.4% to settle at $2.507 a pound at 1:06 p.m. on the Comex in New York, after touching $2.4875, the lowest for a most-active contract in five months. The metal has dropped for 13 consecutive sessions, the longest slump in data going back to 1988.Before traders in China returned from the Lunar New Year holiday on Monday, the sell-off in copper had been deepening amid fears that the virus outbreak will hurt global economic growth, denting demand for the metal used in everything from electronics to automobiles.READ: Copper’s Virus Pain Is Unrelenting as China Delays PurchasesChina’s importance to the copper market has grown considerably, with its share of global consumption expanding by about 30% since 2003, when the SARS epidemic broke out, according to Capital Economics analyst Kieran Clancy.Capital Economics estimates the virus will shave about 500,000 tons from global demand, bigger than the 125,000-ton hit during during SARS epidemic.Hopes for further recovery in global trade, stemming from strong Chinese December trade data and the signing of the deal between the U.S. and China, “have now been stopped in their tracks, and we anticipate global new orders and business expectations indices will drop sharply when next published,” said Colin Hamilton, analyst at BMO Capital Markets. Some Chinese buyers are expected not to honor contracts for commodities currently en route, according to Hamilton.To contact the reporters on this story: Justina Vasquez in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Yvonne Yue Li in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Luzi Ann Javier at firstname.lastname@example.org, Joe RichterFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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Millennials, here are three ways you can make extra money in 2020. Invest in great dividend stocks like BMO stock and your income could soar in 2020.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- I’m not an alarmist when it comes to the yield curve.However, it can’t go unremarked that the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverted on Thursday for the first time since October. The curve has flattened toward zero all month: Short-term rates have stayed steady with Federal Reserve policy, while longer-term yields have tumbled amid mounting evidence that the deadly coronavirus is harming the outlook for global economic growth. Just in case you missed the yield-curve mania over the past few years, the significance of this spread dropping below zero is that the same thing has happened in the lead-up to each of the past seven recessions. It’s such a reliable indicator, in fact, that both the New York Fed and the Cleveland Fed calculate the probability of a downturn in the coming 12 months based on the slope of the yield curve. The odds dipped toward the end of last year, but BMO Capital Markets estimates that the models now imply a 30% to 35% chance of a formal contraction by this time in 2021.As always, if you look hard enough, you can find reasons to convince yourself that this is the beginning of the end of the economic cycle. Just on Thursday, Commerce Department data showed consumer spending slowed to a 1.8% pace, below estimates and the weakest since the first quarter; the Fed’s key inflation gauge rose less than expected; and nonresidential business investment fell for the longest stretch since the last recession. Or you can fall in the camp of those like Brian Rose at UBS AG, who wrote recently that “some of the risks that we have been worried about have diminished recently” and that “it is possible that the U.S. can avoid a recession for several more years.” Citigroup Inc.’s U.S. economic surprise index is still positive, after all, in contrast to its persistently negative reading from February through August last year.Regardless, this crucial yield curve first inverted in March, and now 10 months later the U.S. is nowhere near meeting the formal definition of a recession (gross domestic product expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter). Instead, for bond traders, the most important thing to consider is how the Fed reacted to the inversion throughout last year. March: The curve continued flattening. Policy makers quickly shifted their “dot plot” to forecast no interest-rate increases in 2019, down from two in their previous forecast. As I wrote at the time, the move managed to clear traders’ already high dovish hurdle. May: The curve inverted in earnest. By June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was indicating that the central bank was prepared to cut interest rates at its July meeting. August: The curve lurched deeper into inversion as recession fears reached a peak. Powell and the Fed showed no hesitation in dropping the fed funds rate in September and didn’t push back on an October rate cut either, even though he characterized the July move as a “mid-cycle adjustment.” October: After three quarter-point interest-rate cuts, the yield curve was no longer inverted.Simply put, the Fed has obviously felt compelled to act when the yield curve inverts. Policy makers came into 2019 expecting to raise interest rates twice and ended up dropping them three times instead. This year, officials have reiterated that the U.S. economy and monetary policy are both in a “good place” and that the central bank will probably keep interest rates steady throughout the year. That certainly seemed reasonable at the end of the year, when the slope of the curve was 35 basis points. But now?My hunch is that it’s probably still too soon to extrapolate the coronavirus-driven rally in Treasuries into another Fed rate cut, even if the futures market indicates it’s likely sometime in 2020 and the 10-year yield is approaching 1.5%. As BMO pointed out, a big drop in the “term premium” is the main reason longer-term yields have plunged this year, not necessarily a shift in monetary policy expectations. Then again, the term premium plunged in August, too.Bond traders ought to stay vigilant. There are times when market moves start to nudge the Fed toward action, even if their public comments suggest otherwise. This might just be one of them. To contact the author of this story: Brian Chappatta at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
A dividend-growth strategy using Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO) and Telus Corporation (TSX:T)(NYSE:TU) can take the stress out of retirement planning.
Q1 2020 is the time to take a deeper look at 5 of my top picks: Cargojet Inc. (TSX:CJT), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO)(NYSE:BMO), Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:KMP.UN), Newmont Corporation (TSX:NGT), and Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSX:PPL)(NYSE:PBA).
Bank of Montreal stock and Canadian National Railway stock are ideal stocks for the RRSP. Your dividends from the stocks will prevent you falling into a tax trap due to untimely withdrawals.
TORONTO — The Centre for Addiction and Mental Health and the Bank of Montreal are partnering to help companies to address mental health issues in the workplace.They say improving workplace mental health can help reduce costs and result in higher performance and lower absenteeism.In a report, CAMH makes five key recommendations for businesses.The playbook calls on companies to create a long-term, organization-wide mental health strategy and institute mandatory mental health leadership training.The report also suggests developing tailored mental health supports, prioritizing and optimizing a return-to-work checklist and tracking progress of the strategy.CAMH estimates the economic burden of mental illness in Canada at $51 billion annually.This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 23, 2020.Companies in this story: (TSX:BMO) The Canadian Press
(Bloomberg) -- Netflix Inc.’s latest earnings report spurred mixed feelings across Wall Street as growth overseas was offset by a slowdown in the U.S. amid rising competition from Walt Disney Co., Apple Inc. and more forthcoming launches.Needham Co. believes the spike in streaming rivals will increase Netflix’s churn and customer acquisition costs, most likely lowering the lifetime value per subscriber as growth overseas isn’t equivalent to that domestically. Netflix would need to “add four $3-per-month subscriptions in India to offset each U.S. subscriber lost,” Laura Martin, TMT analyst at Needham, wrote in a note.Shares in Netflix fell as much as 3.7% on Wednesday morning, the most in 10 weeks, before trimming some of that decline. The stock has fluctuated since the streaming service reported Tuesday post-market.Analysts remained generally positive about the results and, despite first-quarter guidance missing estimates, believe the forecast appeared to be cautious. Netflix added 8.3 million subscribers internationally in the fourth quarter to surpass 100 million paid memberships outside of the U.S. for the first time.“Netflix is taking a conservative tone to start the year, with the assumption of slight headwinds,” wrote Raymond James’s Justin Patterson. “This reflects content timing, a competitive launch in Europe, and working through 2019’s U.S. churn,” he added.Stifel analyst Scott W. Devitt also said Disney+ appeared to have a less meaningful impact in available international markets than in the U.S. Still, the analyst cautioned about potential effects of the broader rollout of Disney+ in the EMEA region toward the end of the first quarter.Here’s what Wall Street is saying:Morgan Stanley, Ben SwinburneOverweight, price target $400Update reinforces bullish long-term view and, going forward, analyst expects 90% of global paid net additions to come from outside the U.S., amid continued elevated domestic churn.Notes that local originals were the most popular titles in 2019 in countries including India, Japan, Turkey, Sweden and the U.K.Guidance for nearly $1 billion in free cash flow improvement begins the path toward positive free cash flow and reinforces confidence in the earnings outlook.Piper Sandler, Michael OlsonOverweight, price target $400Netflix reported a “strong” fourth quarter thanks to international subscriber additions, though its first-quarter outlook was below consensus and “likely conservative.”Domestic streaming net subscriber additions were below the Street, likely due to the combination of elevated churn from pricing changes applied earlier in the year and new competition from Disney and Apple.Loup Ventures, Gene Munster“A mixed bag,” with domestic competition demonstrated by U.S. churn but with outperformance at the international business, leaving Netflix’s underlying growth opportunity intact.Also notes that from next year, consumers will have to make more thoughtful streaming decisions as promotional pricing from Apple TV+ and Disney+ comes to an end.“Including video offerings with other paid products and services creates a temporary perception of value in the minds of consumers and an opportunity for video providers to hook viewers, but, eventually, that perception changes.”BMO Capital Markets, Daniel SalmonOutperform, price target $440While U.S. churn remained slightly elevated after a price increase and competitive launches, “solid” growth in U.S. subscribers pushes back materially on the most bearish views.Combined with better-than-expected results in non-U.S. subscribers, BMO says that story remains “firmly intact” for growth investors, whereas free cash flow guidance for 2020 coming in better-than-expected should support interest from GARP (growth at a reasonable price) investors as Netflix makes the free cash flow turn.Bernstein, Todd JuengerOutperform, raises price target to $423 from $415International net paid adds accelerated in every region to a new fourth-quarter all-time high, beat the guide, and beat Bernstein’s estimate and consensus. Since international is where all the total addressable market and future growth lies, says Juenger, “perhaps we should just end this report right here.”“Imagine how differently this EPS report might have been received if Netflix had found an additional 200,000 U.S. net adds.” Netflix still grew in the U.S., Juenger wrote.Netflix’s U.S. subscribers “responded to the Disney+ launch by watching more Netflix.”“With very little new original Disney+ content over the next several quarters, we think consumers will be reinforced in their appreciation of Netflix’s unique value proposition: ‘always something new to watch.’”Citigroup, Jason BazinetNeutral, price target $325Citigroup expects the stock to trade flattish as the better EPS outlook is offset by the lower-than-expected net add guidance.“All told, while the firm delivered a solid set of 4Q19 results and issued 1Q20 EPS guidance above expectations, we suspect that management’s 1Q20 net add guidance is less robust than the market expected.”Needham, Laura MartinUnderperform rating“U.S. subscribers historically have been 3x more profitable than international subs. This gap is widening, and India highlights this problem.”Going forward, Netflix will aggregate low return on investment (ROI) international subs with U.S. subscribers, which masks Netflix’s true ROI trends. Management must add four $3-per-month subscriptions in India to offset each U.S. subscriber lost.Needham expects rising U.S. competition to increase Netflix’s churn and customer acquisition costs, which should lower the company’s lifetime value per subscriber versus historical levels, and put downward pressure on valuation multiples.RBC Capital Markets, Mark MahaneyOutperform, price target $420“We are incrementally positive. In a year when Netflix had two hands tied behind its back (material price increases and pullback in marketing spend), it managed to add almost as many global paid subs in FY19 as in FY18.”“That said, the ‘churn coast’ is not yet clear in the U.S., with domestic adds slowing, as Netflix felt roughly equal impacts from last year’s price increase and new competitive launches.”Evercore ISI, Vijay JayantIn-line, price target $300“With the service likely having reached ‘peak net adds’ we remain cautious on longer-term ARPU and margin trends and view the risk/reward tradeoff as fair at best at current valuations.”“While bulls will point to a better content slate in the 2Q as a means of making up any 1Q shortfall, we are less convinced given a flurry of competitive launches as a headwinds to consider and believe it likely that 2018 will ultimately represent peak net additions for the company.”Raymond James, Justin PattersonStrong buy, price target $415“Netflix is taking a conservative tone to start the year, with the assumption of slight headwinds on UCAN and international markets.”“This reflects content timing, a competitive launch in Europe, and working through 2019’s U.S. churn.”(Adds share move in third paragraph, Needham and Raymond James comments to second and fifth, and more commentary in analyst section after BMO.)\--With assistance from Lisa Pham and William Canny.To contact the reporters on this story: Joe Easton in London at email@example.com;Kit Rees in London at firstname.lastname@example.org;Kamaron Leach in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Beth Mellor at firstname.lastname@example.org, Celeste Perri, Jeremy R. CookeFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries are stuck in the biggest rut in months, with yields plying tight ranges and a round of central-bank meetings ahead unlikely to offer a lasting jolt.Volatility in the world’s borrowing benchmark is the lowest since May, and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering mere basis points above its average since July. That’s even after absorbing the following this month: a flareup in Mideast tensions, the signing of a long-awaited U.S.-China trade deal, confirmation that American inflation remains tame amid solid growth, and a record-setting run in stocks.Traders hoping for a catalyst to shake the bond world out of its doldrums may focus on central-bank decisions by month-end from Japan, Canada, the euro region, the U.S., and the U.K. However, all but possibly the Bank of England are seen as staying on hold.A variety of offsetting forces are “taking the malaise in Treasuries and apathy expressed in rates toward the end of last year and pulling them into 2020,” says Scott Kimball, a portfolio manager for the fixed-income unit of BMO Global Asset Management. “It has to be a pretty big catalyst to break through in either direction.”The 10-year Treasury yields about 1.82%. Its six-month average: 1.77%. Its climb to this month’s peak of 1.94% drew eager buyers, and it hasn’t been below 1.7% in that period.Of the major central banks convening by the end of January, Kimball sees the Federal Reserve as having the most market-moving risk because of the chance officials could offer a surprisingly hawkish view, given the strength of the economy. Traders expect that policy makers’ next rate move, if any, will probably be a cut later this year.The Fed’s signaling that it intends to keep rates steady, even after the U.S.-China trade deal, is supporting all assets, including Treasuries, says Jason Ware, managing director and head of institutional trading at 280 Securities.“Unless the Fed becomes more hawkish, it’s status quo for the immediate future: Low volatility and high valuations on assets,” he said. “We’re probably not going to get anything that’s going to create volatility in this next round of meetings.”What to WatchIn a holiday-shortened week, highlights in the economic figures include housing data, as the Fed’s communications blackout begins before its Jan. 28-29 meeting.Here’s the economic calendar:Jan. 22: MBA mortgage applications; Chicago Fed national activity index; FHFA house price index; existing home salesJan. 23: Jobless claims; Bloomberg consumer confort; leading index; Kansas City Fed manufacturing indexJan. 24: Markit U.S. purchasing managers’ indexesThere are no Fed speechesAnd the auction schedule:Jan. 21: $42 billion of 13-week bills; $36 billion of 26-week billsJan. 23: 4-, 8-week bills; 10-year TIPS reopeningTo contact the reporter on this story: Vivien Lou Chen in San Francisco at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at firstname.lastname@example.org, Mark Tannenbaum, Debarati RoyFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Like a puppy chasing its tail, some new investors often chase 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story...