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Digital Turbine, Inc. (APPS)
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new article from Yahoo:
High-Quality Play: Digital Turbine (APPS)
Digital Turbine (NASDAQ:APPS) is an AdTech company that has shown strange resilience against Google (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) dominance on mobile. In fact, you’ll often find the underdog’s legacy product On Device Media preinstalled on phones — think of Verizon (NYSE:VZ) or AT&T (NYSE:T) sponsored ads that pop up every now and then.
Fortunately, Digital Turbine didn’t stop at pop-up ads, going on an acquisition spree to create a vertically integrated digital ad agency. Today, Digital Turbine covers every aspect from programmatic ad trading to advertising platforms.
As companies begin to shift their attention to the Metaverse, Digital Turbine looks set to become a dark-horse winner once again. Google has long struggled to migrate its web-dependent advertising platform to mobile and another stumble into the Metaverse will see its mobile-native rival leap ahead.
Not everything, however, has been smooth sailing for Digital Turbine. The upstart has seen significant merger-related challenges across its nine separate offices. And its organic growth rates, which topped 82.6% this quarter, are expected to slow to 35% by 2024, according to Wall Street analysts.
Yet this mobile-native advertiser has emerged as a surprising value play in the AdTech space, especially compared to its peers. Its 4.5x forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio makes it far cheaper than Google or Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and a $5.4 billion valuation means it still has plenty of room to run.
Lots of optimism about Digital Turbine relates to growth and where it might be in the next few years. But I think many people can't help but fixate on today, so I thought it would be good to compare Digital Turbine today vs 1 year ago, in terms of numbers and value. So, at close of last night, Digital Turbine was available to buy at $49.56. One year ago it was trading at $41. It is currently trading just under 21 percent above the price it was a year ago. What more are we getting for a 21 percent price premium at todays price?(I'm using fiscal Q2 2021 and fiscal Q2 2022 reports and transcripts only).Revenue was $70.9m vs $310.2m (+337 percent)GAAP net income was $0.4m vs #$%$9m [both were affected by earn out provision changes]Non-GAAP net income was $14.5m vs $45.3m (+212 percent)Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $16.5m vs $47.9m (+190 percent)Non-GAAP FCF was $21.5m vs "over $40m" (around 100 percent?)Device footprint: "over 500m devices" vs 750m (around 50 percent)SingleTap: "now a seven figure business for us" vs "nine figure run rate annual business" (err.. 100x or 10,000 percent)Cash expenses on platform: 20 percent of revenues vs 14.8 percent (~reduced by a quarter)Cash balance: $33m vs $95.5mDebt: zero vs $260mNo opinion, no forecast, just extract from the 2Q quarters of fiscal 2021 and fiscal 2022. Prime premium of 21 percent today.
Made my first buy. If its not the bottom, Im prepared to add, at least it should be safe price in a long run.
This thing has lost the 90s, the 80s, the 70s, the 60s and in a few moments the 50s in less than a month on relatively good news over the past two quarters. It’s down when the market is up big and down when the market is down. Either the short interest is way higher than reported or there is a concerted effort to drive this down for a specific reason so that it’s at a certain price on a specific day. It seems as if there is no interest either way (buy or sell), it would be trading sideways. Thoughts from the experts?
I have a couple of updates / things to point out. I've been conversing with a couple of people who track the company in some detail. The first has pointed out that if you plot EV\EBITDA multiples for $APPS (various sites will do this and produce a graph for you) then the current multiple of 46.9x (using last twelve months for EBIDTA rather than any forecast data) has only been cheaper than this on one occasion, and that's during a period spanning roughly March to June 2020 - we know what happened following that time in summer 2020. This shows that $APPS is, by standards set by the market for $APPS historically, cheap when considering present enterprise value and last 12 months EBITDA. This is interesting as we know that the EBIDTA value is potentially forecast to grow significantly in the next few quarters. So, if EBITDA does indeed grow, either the EV needs to rise (notwithstanding share count and debt, this pretyy much means the share price needs to rise) OR the EV\EBITDA multiple needs to fall to levels even lower, ie. matching mid 2020 and putting more pressure on the share price to rise unless a lower multiple can be justified.
Which brings me neatly onto the second discussion I've had recently. I was shared a revenue forecast by someone who had cleverly plotted targets the Co have given out, for $4bn Rev and $1bn EBITDA in 3-5 years, and SingleTap hitting $1bn standalone in 12-18 months. By splitting out SingleTap from the rest of DT, and then using the long term group target of 25-30 percent CAGR, this author was able to notice a few things. First, that if SingleTap is growing that fast, then the remainder of Digital Turbine would need to slow markedly to hit only a 25-30 percent CAGR over the 3-5 year period. Second, that if SingleTap does indeed hit $1bn run rate in revenues in 12-18 months, then the Co hitting $4bn in 3-5 years from now looks very conservative. Again, much of this is very sensitive to assumptions made now about how Fyber, AdColony, DT ex SingleTap, and SingleTap grow over the next couple of quarters, but it's certainly going to be very compelling to watch if the company even manage to get anywhere close to their targets announced on Investor Day.
Have a good week.
No more shares left to sell out there. That's it! Done!
How about some green today?
Very frustrating, but ok. Would like to get your view guys on something: Basically, i just would like to know for myself, how much longer this pain will continue for. Cause it is starting to get a bit painful.
How long will it take until DT be looked at as 1 company and not a combination of 4 separate companies? Cause i have a feeling that is how people look at DT right now.
Also, there was information shared here that the institutions holding has increased to 78%. So all this what is happening with the stock price right now is caused by shorting of the stock?
thanks for any insights/opinions!
In your opinion, what should we expect for a target price for the next 6 moth?
As many know, this stock is stuck in the doldrums with the other high growth high debt stocks. Last quarter the move the the s&p was the catalyst that ignited the momentum to drive the stock back to $90. I just can’t imagine what news could possibly come out in the next month that would invoke a similar type of rally
Yikes, this one is hard to watch. Thankfully semi’s are performing very well to offset.
Thing is, this issue will turn on a dime and go hyper on any solid catalyst. A director buying a few shares, while a show of faith in the company, is not going to do it.
There’s got to be a Blank Check Company / Special acquisition company out there doing due diligence for a potential merger. Just my opinion.
@Borat and others. I explained this yesterday but people here like to only listen to FT and he is probably short this stock and been milking you all. %75 of nothing is nothing, the company has extremely bad cash flows and high debt and very high cost structure. at their current cash levels and cashflows they simply cant sustain the business without a new cash injection, lenders are starting to dry up for apps and dont think they will be able to take much more debt. the new funds will most likely come from issuing shares and selling it in the open market once they start doing this the share price will rocket down. Major Hedge funds been shorting this everyday for the last 20 days and for a very good reason, because the numbers are very clear this business is not sustainable they tried to grow too fast and convinced a bunch of lenders that they can grow at over %200, with the economic data that keeps coming up this is clearly not going to happen
you guys can keep listening to FT propaganda, truth is this company will go bankrupt in 18 months if they dont issue X4 to X8 the amount of shares currently outstanding.
Yesterday nasdaq was red, pushers were happy and they were on surface, today nasdaq is green, pushers will hide today, tomorrow if market goes down , pushers will be be loud that we are just going with market, so nothing wrong, so enjoy the bleeding and never be unhappy.
APPS is currently one of the best stocks to short in the entire US stock market, its like free money just sold all my position and went short 1000 shares will be adding more next week and buy back sometime in 2022 for pennies on the dollar. this is the trade of a life time.
An S-4 filing was made yesterday by Robert Deutschman for 3,000 shares at $51.62.
Insiders are seeing value.
How long will it take for apps to turn red today? An hour? 2 hours?
DT free cash flow per share last quarter is $0.32 TTD is $0.22....Apps shares 95M, TTD 480M. TTD valued at $50B, DT $5B. Common Sense says Market cap will improve once the aquisitions settle in. Big upside in 2022 IMO.
I have a 1/2 million dollar bet that APPS will make it.. Yes we are down, yes the stock price is down 45% in the last month, so what this brings great opportunity if you have money to buy more APPS. This time next year we want be panicking, the ones that stay long and strong will be rewarded greatly... again I got my money where my mouth is and this will work for my advantage, I am sure of it...
Another internal purchase. 3000 stocks
Same Director as on Aug 19
Institutional ownership yesterday 74.94%
Institutional ownership today 75.04%
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