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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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$AMTX I have finished the day buying 10000 + 15000 shares more. Big opportunity to buy low around $10 area.
India plant is expected to resume soon production + Aemetis is expected to refinance debt at low interest rate with USDA (federal government).
I believe in big gains in the next part of IQ
$GEVO $VLO $ADM $REGI
Looking for a $70 print. Options point to higher stock price. In 2022 we will see higher input and pricing inflation. That may squeeze EPS.
"a hold forever company!"
"Tudor Pickering Holt Lifts Valero Energy's Price Target to $93 From $86, Notes Ethanol 'to Make More in Q4'21 Than 2017-2020 Combined;' Buy Rating Kept
BY MT Newswires
— 9:57 AM ET 01/07/2022
Grain prices are very good.
ADM should be able to expand margins nicely!
Will a Santa Claus rally come this year? ADM has become a core holding of mine. Company well positioned for long-term growth.
$70s print...I'm a bit concerned about Proposed CO2 pipeline. Storage only? That seems a very limited solution to Carbon generation...
People are only gonna realize how important and crucial agribusiness companies are when the next food crisis comes along. Will ADM hit $100 in the next few years?
This boring old stock is looking pretty exciting lately! I remember how long I waited to see it finally break 50. I thought it would never break it and hold. This would be a nice time for ADM to offer 2 shares for 1 BG and get it over with once and for all. Don't laugh, I own them both. I am guessing that more than a few of us own them both. What is amazing is that ADM could make that offer and it would actually be accretive to earnings! That is hard to believe. How could Wall Street not like that?
Add one more Catalyst
SRE (small refiner exemption) rule being applied will restore industry demand.
See rule applied last Friday by new Admin.
In the past billion of gallons of demand were bypassed
Remember, E industry was running at low capacity. Past 5 weeks production high, above 1.1mil per day last week. And Inventory stayed FLAT! Export when released will strong numbers.
$adm, $GPRE, $REX, $vlo , $ande
$GEVO ADM, Gevo Sign MoU To Produce Up To 500M Gallons Of Sustainable Aviation Fuel
"Among the major funding details released Tuesday, $700 million will go to biofuel producers. The ethanol industry clamored for aid last year as demand for liquid fuel crashed during government shutdowns. Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, said the group is pleased with Tuesday's announcement and that the relief will come over the next two months."
reported in Farmers DTN news feed
MY GUESS... Industry ran at 50% capacity ie 7B in a 14B gallon market.
Fair distribution is 10c per gallon not produced.
If so Alto had a capacity of 600M gallons...( so half would yield $30M seems a fair share... my guess)
Alto ended Idling 180mil gallons in 2021.
GPRE was at 1.2B gallons capacity( I think). So $60M GUESS!
VLO had 2.7-2.8Bil capacity. So $135M GUESS.
ADM. REX, AMTX...
2020 was a hard year... BUT this will repair a bit the balance sheet and fill up the kitty for some Carbon Capture Investment or Protein production,
VLO is also big producer. 2.7Billion (I think last year). So ps
What is shaking the Ethanol world , under under ?
1. Driving rate is picking up.... but up to now nothing excessive not to keep up with.
2. Based on corn and cane ... corn in high Demand due to China needs
3. Invenotry is low ... industry is switching to alchohol, cut down run rate
4. New Consciousness about CLIMATE!
1. US Corn Dec $6$+ Ethanol $2.34
CONCLUSION : Hold on to your producers!!! Ethaol might be better than STEEL... Luquid Steel !
Don't know a whole lot about ADM except they have a good reputation and appear diversified with essential products for humanity.
Low Debt/Equity, Pay Me to Own it, An essential item.
Any other ideas out there? Dipped my toe in the water today with CVX,PSX,INTC,CSCO,ADM,MDT, VZ, TAP for my dividend buys. Went into international for the first time as well,and gold yesterday. Plan on averaging in.
EIA report volume for the week is right on track
1. Higher volume out of the plants - get ready for Labor day surge
2. Refinig running higher and higher ( 91+ %)
3. Byproducts of corn ( biodiesel) is Up ... and Prices are UP
By the way corn futures moderated !
Margin widen, volume is up.
Watch for another bump in earnings estimates.
I'm a long time holder. Bought more today, but not all that I intend to b/c this blood bath isn't over and I'll see if I can pick up more lower. Can't go wrong with ADM.
As a former employee I've owned this since '97. The reinvested dividends have really added up. However the capital appreciation not so much. This is a stock position that I never worried about selling. I guess a core holding should do that. However, would I start a position now...ADM is fully valued.
Low 40s seem a safer entry point...gle
Two notes from EIA and ethanol world :
1. ADM is re-opening two plants.
2. West Coast ( mostly California) refinery demand , per EIA 0407 report, is at 150K barrels per day(bpd). While this up from 120K during Covid, this is +10k bpd above 2019 run rate.
So demand for Ethanol is back to normal.
Challenge is that West Inventory is down 1.7Million gallons, 200Kmgallons down from last week,
and from normal 2.1-2.4M stockage level.
AT run rate of 150K barrels per day. this means that from a supply line level, West coast has less than 11.2 days of supply.
As a whole, Ethanol industry Optimum Goal is to run at a reserve level of 19 days of supply.
This is to accomodate end-to-end issue of production, transporation, stockage, local distribution, peak demand days ...
West coast usually has 14-15 days of supply with normal local production of 15-16K bpd or
660k - 700K gallons per day. SO ethanol stock depleting at a rate of 200K per day is worrisome!
US Ethanol Production, with PEIX California plants down, is in the midwest.
Going down river to ship by boat back to west coast is costly.
Rack price in California is $2.30 per gallon now. I see $2.40-2.50/gallon coming.
AT least one Alto Plant re-opening is ahead. Or should ATMX buy them?
Food inflation keeps going higher. ADM is gonna be balling.
Great quarter for Archer Daniels Midland!￼
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