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Why Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Is Trading Up Today

HOG Cover Image
Why Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Is Trading Up Today

What Happened:

Shares of american motorcycle manufacturing company Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) jumped 9.5% in the afternoon session after the company reported second-quarter earnings results. Harley-Davidson beat analysts' revenue and EPS expectations amidst a setup management termed "a challenging market." Notably, revenue rose 13%, benefitting from a 16% growth in motorcycle shipments, which more than offset pricing and FX headwinds. In addition, management highlighted the commitment to return value to shareholders after announcing a new $1b share buyback through 2026. Zooming out, we think this was a solid quarter.

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What is the market telling us:

Harley-Davidson's shares are quite volatile and over the last year have had 9 moves greater than 5%. In context of that, today's move is indicating the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago, when the stock dropped 14.3% on the news that the company reported first-quarter results with operating profits falling below Wall Street's estimates. Looking closely, both gross and operating margins in the core segment that sells motorcycles and parts declined meaningfully year over year. Overall, the results could have been better.

Harley-Davidson is down 1.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $35.68 per share it is trading 18.8% below its 52-week high of $43.94 from March 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Harley-Davidson's shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,003.

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