This is why Apple’s stock can't move higher, says Baird analyst

The Street's estimates for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s earnings are still too bullish, and until they come down, the stock simply can't move sustainably higher, said Will Power, senior research analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., on Friday.

In a note, Baird said it anticipates the tech giant will report earnings per share of $7.46 for fiscal 2017, well below consensus estimates of $9.06.

"It's tough for stocks to work until you get them sufficiently reset to where you can at least meet, if not beat, estimates," Power told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

In the key smartphone segment, Baird expects 90 million to 110 million units of the coming iPhone 7 to be procured, marking a slight year-over-year decline from initial procurement for the iPhone 6s.

In 2017, Baird sees iPhone shipments declining 2.3 percent from 2016. The consensus calls for a mid-single-digit increase, Baird noted, citing FactSet data.

"Unfortunately, the iPhone 7, while I think it will be a nice upgrade, it doesn't look like it will be a game changer," Power said.

Consensus estimates see Apple rising to about $122 per share, down from forecasts for roughly $146 at the start of the year, according to FactSet.

Still, that's not enough in Power's view. His price target is $115 per share. Apple's stock is down 9 percent this year. The shares were up slightly to $90.70 in early trading Friday.

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