Whether Harris or Trump, the prospect of a direct China-US conflict is unlikely: expert

The US and China are unlikely to have a direct conflict regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the American presidential election, according to a top political scientist on bilateral relations.

But both will take a hard line on Beijing in the race, he said.

Li Cheng, founding director of the University of Hong Kong's Centre on Contemporary China and the World, said that despite the broad bitterness in America against China, a war with China would not unite the United States, and blaming Beijing too much could backfire in the campaign.

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Li, a former head of the Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Centre, also said many US political figures were not as tough on China as they professed to be in public.

"My view is that the Chinese should not take too seriously what they say in the campaign. What they say and what they do will be different," Li said in an interview with the Post on Monday.

The race for the White House has taken some dramatic turns in the past fortnight.

After President Joe Biden withdrew on the weekend, Vice-President Harris tweeted on Tuesday that she has secured enough delegates to earn the Democratic Party's nomination.

Donald Trump formally accepted the Republican Party's presidential nomination last week, and within 48 hours of an assassination attempt on him, picked 39-year-old J.D. Vance, a senator from Ohio, as his running mate.

But Li said the candidates had one thing in common.

"No matter Trump, Harris or someone else in the future ... they will all be tough on China in the current US political environment," he said.

Washington's strategic competition with Beijing is generally expected to remain unchanged after the election in November, given the apparent bipartisan consensus in the US on China's potential as a threat.

Still, Li said, there were "a lot of differences" within the parties and between the Republicans and Democrats on the best strategy for dealing with China.

He said it was important to not conflate efforts to identify an enemy with a determination to fight an enemy.

American voters were unlikely to welcome the idea of going to war with China nor would they buy attempts to attribute all of the US' problems to the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

"Sometimes Donald Trump praising China actually resonates very well. They just think we are doing so poorly and blaming China for everything just shows your incompetence," he said.

"Americans are not so dumb, they know that the narrative sometimes is too biased.

"Will a war with China unite the United States? No. Treating China as an enemy will unite the United States? Maybe, but the chance of failure is much higher."

China-related issues seem to be less of a priority in this election campaign than in previous years.

Still, in his speech accepting the Republican vice-presidential nomination last week, Vance took aim at China being accepted to the World Trade Organisation, saying it was time to "stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of American citizens".

A few days earlier, he said the focus of American foreign policy would be China and characterised the country as "the biggest threat" to the US.

"I was surprised that he made so many remarks on some policies, including China policy, which obviously is different from Trump," Li said, referring to the former US president's willingness to let Chinese carmakers build vehicles in the US.

"J.D. Vance should be careful. There's only [a] one-man show for the Republican Party. It cannot be two men. This is Donald Trump's character," he said. "J.D. Vance should learn from [Mike] Pence to be quiet."

Still, Li warned against concluding from Vance's comment that he and his team hated China.

"These people are very sophisticated, intellectual, they are not anti-China," he said. "Do not take [things at] face value."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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