The Watch Market Continued to Slow Down in Q1: Report

According to the online watch sales aggregator Chrono24’s ChronoPulse Watch Index Report, Q1 of 2024 shows a slight cooling off, with declines in sales overall of just 0.49 percent. That may sound like bad news, but, by comparison, Q1 of 2023 saw a full 2.23 percent decline. Taken as a year-long curve, this looks like the run off of a soft landing—perhaps even a stabilization—of the international watch market.

As most of us remember all too well, the watch market soared ever upwards during the pandemic, eventually cooling off in early 2022. 2021 as the peak bubble moment, and those out to make a profit who sold in late 2021 likely feel they were prescient. Even the more reserved releases at Watches & Wonders last month seem to indicate a return to something like normalcy.

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The Rolex GMT Master II for 2024 suggests we are in a more sober market.

Balazs Ferenczi, Head of Brand Engagement at Chrono24, says that “[P]rices for more than 40% of popular models rose in the first quarter of this year. The watch market could also get a further boost if central banks in Europe and the US cut key interest rates.”

Speculation about how larger economic trends affect the watch market tend to look relatively accurate over time, and luxury markets are generally prone to swelling and contracting considerably with international markets. Given these characteristics, it doesn’t seem entirely shocking that there is a general leveling for Q1 this year.

However, the psychology behind these market shifts are far more difficult to discern, though that rarely prevents any of us from speculating. Ferenczi says that, “We even set a new record for transactions on our marketplace in Q1 2024. This could also be a sign that watch enthusiasts are speculating that prices will rise again, and thus are getting their dream watch at a potentially lower price.” I would counter that it may also indicate that sellers are itchy to get out, though that’s equally as difficult to ascertain, barring a proper poll.

Cartier’s overall sales dropped more than any other brand for Q1 2024, the Chrono24 report says.

More fascinatingly, perhaps, are the relative performances of different brands. This is where speculating usually gives way to bafflement over how collective tastes appear to shift. For example, Breitling, Omega and Cartier saw the greatest drops in value as brands, and yet the Cartier Panthère rose in value—a whopping 19.51 percent—and the Breitling Navitimer went up 18 percent, according to the report.

Jaeger-LeCoultre Reversos, TAG Monacos, Grand Seiko Heritage Collection, Hublot Big Bangs all saw percentage increases in the mid-teens, while the Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi went up by 9.94%. All this in spite of a general decrease.

Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi rose by nearly 10% in Q1 this year, report says.

The take away from the ChronoPulse Watch Index Report for Q1 is probably going to be that the larger market moves in ways that make some sense when considered in a broader context, while specialist collectors and dealers will remain wise to stay in their lane and read the finer pulse of these micro-markets—often only legible when considering just one model at a time.

You can track price trends on the secondary luxury watch market using the ChronoPulse Watch Index, which Chrono24 claims is based on real sales data.

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