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Volatility 101: Should Ardagh Group (NYSE:ARD) Shares Have Dropped 26%?

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Ardagh Group S.A. (NYSE:ARD) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the reality of under-performance over the last twelve months. The cold reality is that the stock has dropped 26% in one year, under-performing the market.

Check out our latest analysis for Ardagh Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year Ardagh Group saw its earnings per share drop below zero. Buyers no doubt think it's a temporary situation, but those with a nose for quality have low tolerance for losses. Of course, if the company can turn the situation around, investors will likely profit.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:ARD Past and Future Earnings, May 6th 2019

We know that Ardagh Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Ardagh Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Ardagh Group's TSR for the last year was -23%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 11% in the last year, Ardagh Group shareholders might be miffed that they lost 23% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. It's great to see a nice little 14% rebound in the last three months. This could just be a bounce because the selling was too aggressive, but fingers crossed it's the start of a new trend. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Ardagh Group's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.