Yahoo Finance USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Falling Wedge Pattern Depicting Bullish Signals
After touching the daily high near 1.3135 level yesterday, the pair took a deep dive to the bottom of the chart near 1.3084 level. The USD/CAD pair was trading remaining intact in the same lower vicinity today. The pair attempted twice in the Asian session to breach the sturdy 1.3102 resistance mark. But, anyhow, the pair couldn’t accomplish the task and rebounded to the downside.
In the meantime, the USD Index was also lingering near 96.15/25 range level in the early hours. Following last day’s mixed economic data, the Greenback had slipped from 96.39 level to 96.14 level.
The German May Import Price Index and France June CPI data had reported higher-than-estimated today. This price action allowed the EUR/USD pair, which is the major rival of the Greenback. Hence, the US Dollar Index appeared to lose several pips, reaching 96.11 level amid Fiber upsurge.
On Friday morning, Canada’s largest export item, Crude Oil, slipped from $59.49 bbl to $59.03 bbl. The ease in the Oil prices came ahead of the G20 Summit where the US and China would have constructive trade talks.
Significant Economic Events
The market had witnessed a positive May QoQ Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) last day. Today, the Street looks forward to the May MoM and YoY PCE figures, mostly to report in-line to the previous.
Next up in the economic docket is May Personal Spending. The consensus estimates the event to record 0.1% higher than the 0.3% previous figures.
Traders also keep an eye over the June Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, expected to report 2.07% lower this time. Meanwhile, the market continues hope over the June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Street expects the Index to come 0.1% higher than the last 97.9 points.
On the Canadian side, the April MoM GDP figure is something that needs special attention. The market stays bearish over these statistics, expecting a 0.4% decrease this time. At around 14:30 GMT, the BoC would publish the Business Outlook Survey which might tweak the CAD’s movements.
At 17:00 GMT, the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release would have a significant impact on the Crude prices. The Oil Count had reported 789 last time.
Technical Analysis
1-Hour Chart
The 200-day SMA was hovering well above the Loonie pair alluding bearish stances for the upcoming movements. Somehow, the overall pattern forms a falling wedge trading pattern, as a prelude to a bullish trend. So, any action that takes the pair above the 1.31 handle would show signs for a significant trend reversal. Quite notably, the 50-day and 100-day SMA was moving towards the pair and might gradually move below the pair.
1-Day Chart
The primary trend in the pair’s movements remained bearish. The USD/CAD pair was trading above the Ichimoku Clouds strengthening the bears. Both the base line and the conversion line also remained overhead the pair, confirming the downtrend. However, both the lines appeared to head south, and a change in trend remains as a possibility.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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