US No 2 envoy claims Moscow-Pyongyang pact has left Beijing 'somewhat anxious'

The No 2 envoy in US President Joe Biden's administration said on Monday that Beijing was "somewhat anxious" over growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

"It is fair to say that China is somewhat anxious about what's going on between Russia and North Korea," Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in a discussion at the Council of Foreign Relations. "They have indicated so in some of our interactions, and we can see some tension associated with" a defence pact Moscow and Pyongyang announced last week.

"China is probably worried that North Korea will be somehow encouraged to take provocative steps that could lead to a crisis in Northeast Asia," said Campbell, who participated in the launch event for a China Strategy Initiative the think tank has set up to develop policy recommendations for Washington policymakers.

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Campbell said that Pyongyang has provided "an enormous number" of artillery shells to support Moscow's war against Ukraine and that in exchange, North Korea may get support for its long-range, nuclear missile development plans.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made headlines with his trip last week to Pyongyang, a move that widens the scope of players involved in the war that he launched against Ukraine in February 2022.

Biden administration officials including Campbell, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan have accused Beijing of supporting Russia's war effort with shipments of electronics and other materials used in weapons systems, but add that the country has stopped short of delivering "lethal aid".

In his remarks at the event, Campbell said that pressure on China from Nato allies and defence treaty partners in the Indo-Pacific - Japan, South Korea and the Philippines - as well as Australia and New Zealand had already been increasing over concerns about how much a Russian victory over Ukraine would upset global stability.

"The steps that Russia and North Korea are taking are causing countries in the region to rethink all of their military and other steps. And so what we've seen is substantial increases in military spending, different focus in South Korea and Japan, elsewhere, through across the Indo-Pacific more generally," he said.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. Photo: Reuters alt=US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell. Photo: Reuters>

"The United States is quite focused on underscoring the strength of our extended deterrence commitments to the countries of Northeast Asia, Japan and South Korea in particular," he added.

Asked how close the US and the Philippines are to invoking their mutual defence treaty, Campbell said that he would not speculate on that in public.

"I will say we have reaffirmed [the treaty's] significance and its relevance to these situations, continually and at the highest level - the president, secretary of defence, secretary of state - so we've sent a clear and unambiguous message of our determination to stand by our Philippine friends," he added.

Questions about that treaty have swelled since Manila has condemned Beijing for the "dangerous manoeuvres" of Chinese ships - "including ramming and towing" - to disrupt a resupply mission to a vessel grounded by Manila on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.

Speaking in another panel discussion at the council, Bonny Lin of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, agreed that Beijing was concerned about the Russia-North Korea pact, but played down the extent to which the Chinese government would counter it.

She cited the lack of any language condemning North Korea's nuclear programmes in the statement issued by China, Japan and South Korea in their trilateral meeting last month.

"China is put in a somewhat difficult spot, because it does recognize longer term that Russia's ambition for the Korean peninsula is quite different" from its own, Lin said.

"Russia is generally more willing to tolerate a greater level instability and perhaps a nuclear North Korea, whereas China has traditionally in the past been more wary of them. But we have been seeing subtle changes in China's position on this."

China, she said, "downplayed the role of the need for complete denuclearization in the China-Japan-ROK joint statement, which is different from four years ago", she added.

"The unfortunate reality is China is siding more and more with Russia and North Korea."

Also on Monday, James O'Brien, the State Department's assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs, said that the coming Nato summit would prioritise partnerships with the Indo-Pacific. He noted the strategic similarities in security concerns the two regions face.

"A focus of the summit will be on partnership with the Indo-Pacific, and we expect to have leaders from several of our Indo-Pacific partners participating in the events of the summit," he said.

"We are doing this because the security concerns faced in the Indo-Pacific are very similar to those that are faced in Nato's Article 5 territory, and so it makes sense to share lessons and to work together against similar collective threats," O'Brien added.

Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan - all Indo-Pacific partners of Nato - have been invited to attend the summit in Washington in July.

The Philippines is not a Nato partner and has not been invited to the gathering. But it is a member of the "Squad", the new US-led military cooperation alliance that includes Japan and Australia as well.

In April, Biden also hosted a trilateral summit with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr.

In a joint statement, the leaders expressed "serious concerns" about China's "dangerous and aggressive behaviour" in the South China Sea, welcoming recent cooperation in support of what they called a "free and fair" Indo-Pacific.

Reiterating that Russia was able to conduct its war in Ukraine because China was helping it, O'Brien said that the US had been asking Chinese officials to use their "leverage" to bring Russia to the negotiation table but "they've been unwilling to do that".

Earlier this month, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that China's support for Russia's efforts in Ukraine had made it necessary for Nato to forge global partnerships, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, and significantly ramp up defence spending.

Stoltenberg said that Beijing's position had intensified the largest armed conflict in Europe since the end of World War II, requiring the allies to act and "impose a cost".

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Nato has enhanced its cooperation with Indo-Pacific countries, inviting the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea to participate in that year's Nato summit in Madrid, Spain.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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