U.S. natural gas retreats 2% in run-up to storage report

April 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures retreated more than 2% on Thursday on forecasts for less demand for the fuel next week in the run-up to a federal report expected to show nearly a normal injection into stockpiles. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were down 6.1 cents, or 2.9%, by 10:29 a.m. EDT. "Between yesterday and this morning it is continuation of profit-taking ahead of the storage report as we approached the $2.00 mark," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. "We believe that prices are going to consolidate as there's not a huge demand or supply driver here that will help us break us away from the current price range." U.S. utilities likely put a near-normal 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas in storage last week, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. That compares with an 8 bcf injection during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average rise of 28 bcf. If correct, last week's injected would lift stockpiles to 1.858 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 19% above the five-year average. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 100.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 98.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January 2023. It also forecast that U.S. gas demand, including exports, would dip from 97.0 bcfd this week to 94.0 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, data provider Refinitiv estimated 103 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states. The normal for this time of year is 146 HDDs. HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). Meanwhile, Russian gas giant Gazprom said that Europe's ability to maintain ample gas stocks in the 2023/2024 winter hinges on Asia's demand given "critically low" supplies from Russia. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year April Mar 31 April 7 average 7(Forecast) (Actual) April 7 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -23 8 28 28 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,830 1,395 1,560 1,858 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 19.5% 19.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 6.70 6.54 3.60 2.12 2.093 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 31.83 40.50 14.39 13.65 15.12 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 29.22 34.11 14.31 12.62 12.57 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 103 116 165 144 146 U.S. GFS CDDs 33 37 40 39 36 U.S. GFS TDDs 136 153 205 183 182 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 99.9 - 89.7 100.2 100.5 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.5 - 8.6 6.6 7.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 - 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 106.5 - 98.4 106.8 107.6 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 - 2.6 2.2 2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.0 - 5.1 4.8 4.9 U.S. LNG Exports 14.0 - 7.1 13.8 14.2 U.S. Commercial 9.3 - 8.7 7.8 6.9 U.S. Residential 13.4 - 12.5 10.2 8.7 U.S. Power Plant 29.0 - 24.9 29.6 28.7 U.S. Industrial 21.9 - 22.5 21.5 21.3 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 - 4.9 4.9 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 - 2.4 2.0 1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 80.8 - 76.0 76.2 72.7 Total U.S. Demand 101.8 - 90.8 97.0 94.0 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Apr 14 Apr 7 Mar 31 Mar 24 Mar 17 Wind 16 14 14 15 13 Solar 4 4 3 3 5 Hydro 7 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 38 39 37 37 40 Coal 15 16 17 16 15 Nuclear 19 19 18 19 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.22 2.19 Transco Z6 New York 1.58 1.52 PG&E Citygate 5.82 6.00 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.47 1.52 Chicago Citygate 1.80 2.05 Algonquin Citygate 1.70 1.72 SoCal Citygate 8.25 7.40 Waha Hub 0.95 0.76 AECO 2.26 2.34 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 32.75 29.00 PJM West 40.50 30.50 Ercot North 19.50 18.25 Mid C 89.22 99.38 Palo Verde 45.50 76.50 SP-15 44.00 63.75 (Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)