Yahoo Finance TUI (ETR:TUI1) shareholders have endured a 86% loss from investing in the stock five years ago
Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. Anyone who held TUI AG (ETR:TUI1) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 97% in that time. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 78% over the last twelve months. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 70% in the last three months. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for TUI
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
TUI has made a profit in the past. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn't reliably profitable. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
It could be that the revenue decline of 17% per year is viewed as evidence that TUI is shrinking. That could explain the weak share price.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on TUI
A Dividend Lost
The value of past dividends are accounted for in the total shareholder return (TSR), but not in the share price return mentioned above. By accounting for the value of dividends paid, the TSR can be seen as a more complete measure of the value a company brings to its shareholders. TUI's TSR over the last 5 years is -86%; better than its share price return. Even though the company isn't paying dividends at the moment, it has done in the past.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that TUI shareholders are down 58% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 2.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand TUI better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for TUI (1 is a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.
But note: TUI may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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