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TREASURIES-Yields rise from three-month lows before Fed meeting

·3 min read

(Adds analyst comment, reverse repo uptake, updates prices) By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose from three-month lows on Monday as investors waited on the Federal Reserve’s meeting statement on Wednesday for new indications on when the U.S. central bank is likely to begin paring back its unprecedented monetary stimulus. The Fed is not expected to announce any plans to pare its bond purchases until its August economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, though it may start dropping hints that it has started to talk about a taper. Policymakers will also update their economic projections and markets will be focused on whether they upgrade their inflation projections and see a rate hike as likely in 2023. Treasury yields tumbled last week after data showed a sharp increase in inflation for May, which some analysts interpreted as the market capitulating to the Fed’s view that recent price pressures will be temporary. Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, said that the recent move was more likely driven by positioning as investors betting on further yield rises covered their trades. “This rally in rates seems very counterintuitive. I still haven’t found a very strong case besides perhaps the offset of positioning, people are getting out of trades ahead of the FOMC,” Rajappa said. Benchmark 10-year yields rose four basis points on Monday to 1.50%, after falling to a three-month low of 1.43% on Friday. They have dropped from a one-year high of 1.78% in March. The risk heading into Wednesday’s meeting statement is that the Fed could sound more hawkish than markets are currently pricing for, as the economy reopens and inflation posts strong increases, Rajappa said. “It seems like too much of a lull given the risks associated with a taper communication,” she said. Analysts at JPMorgan recommended going short Treasuries in the 10-year sector in a report sent on Sunday. The "FOMC meeting could be a catalyst for higher yields, especially with valuations now appearing extremely rich, and markets priced for a slow pace of tightening after liftoff," they said. Another key focus at this week’s meeting will be whether the Fed raises the interest its pays on excess reserves (IOER) and on reverse repurchase agreements (repo) as money market investors struggle with a lack of high-quality short-term assets. The Fed’s reverse repo facility, which offers approved money managers the option to lend money to the Fed overnight in return for Treasury collateral, set a record $584 billion on Monday. Demand is expected to continue to grow as the Treasury continues to pare issuance of Treasury bills. Borrowing rates in the overnight repurchase agreement market were at one basis point on Monday. Some analysts say that the Fed is unlikely to make any adjustments unless the fed funds rate falls below 5 basis points, which it has so far held above. The rate was at 6 basis points on Friday. June 14 Monday 3:10PM New York / 1910 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.025 0.0253 -0.003 Six-month bills 0.035 0.0355 -0.002 Two-year note 99-239/256 0.159 0.008 Three-year note 99-192/256 0.3338 0.021 Five-year note 99-210/256 0.787 0.037 Seven-year note 100-94/256 1.1948 0.041 10-year note 101-40/256 1.499 0.037 20-year bond 102-40/256 2.1167 0.042 30-year bond 104-12/256 2.1899 0.039 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 8.00 0.75 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 9.50 -0.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 7.00 -0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap -2.75 0.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -31.00 -0.25 spread (Reporting by Karen Brettell, Editing by Andrea Ricci and Jonathan Oatis) 

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