TransUnion (TRU) Down 14.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for TransUnion (TRU). Shares have lost about 14.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is TransUnion due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
TransUnion's Q4 Earnings Missed Estimates
TransUnion reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter 2022 results.
Quarterly adjusted earnings of 70 cents per share missed the consensus mark by 5.4% and decreased 4.1% year over year. Total revenues of $902.1 million missed the consensus mark by a slight margin but increased 14.2% year over year on a reported basis. Revenues were up 16.6% on a constant-currency basis, mainly driven by growth in the U.S. Markets and International.
Revenues by Segments
The U.S. Markets revenues of $593 million were up 23% year over year on a reported basis but were down 4% on an organic basis. Within the segment, Financial Services revenues of $296 million climbed 6% year over year on a reported basis but declined 10% on an organic basis. Emerging Vertical revenues were $296 million, up 47% on a reported basis and 4% on an organic basis.
International revenues increased 2% year over year on a reported basis and 12% on a constant-currency basis to $188 million. Revenues from Canada were flat year over year on a reported basis and increased 8% year over year on a constant-currency basis to $32 million. Revenues from the U.K. were $48 million, down 17% on a reported basis and 5% on a constant-currency basis.
Revenues from India increased 21% on a reported basis and 33% on a constant-currency basis to $44 million. The Asia-Pacific revenues were $20 million, up 23% on a reported basis and 26% on a constant-currency basis.
Revenues from Latin America increased 5% on a reported basis and 12% on a constant-currency basis to $28 million. Africa revenues were up 2% on a reported basis and 16% on a constant-currency basis, to $16 million.
Consumer Interactive segment revenues of $141 million declined 2% year over year on a reported basis and 13% year over year on an organic basis.
Adjusted EBITDA was $321 million, up 14% year over year on a reported basis and 17% on a constant-currency basis. The adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 35.6%, down 20 basis points year over year.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
TransUnion had $585 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter compared with $596.1 million at the end of the prior quarter. Long-term debt was $5.6 billion compared with $5.8 billion in the previous quarter.
The company generated $221.8 million of cash from operating activities and CapEx was $105.7 million. It paid out $20.3 million in dividend in the quarter.
For the first quarter of 2023, TransUnion expects revenues between $908 million and $917 million. The company anticipates adjusted EPS of 73-75 cents. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated between $310 million and $316 million. For 2023, the company expects revenues between $3.825 billion and $3.885 billion.
The company anticipates adjusted EPS of $3.46-$3.59. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated between $1.388 billion and $1.421 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Estimates revision followed a downward path over the past two months.
At this time, TransUnion has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
TransUnion has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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