Yahoo Finance Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$3.29 Price Target
Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.5% to US$2.04 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues came in at US$606m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.68 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Traeger
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Traeger, is for revenues of US$592.2m in 2024. This implies a noticeable 2.3% reduction in Traeger's revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 35% to US$0.43. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$606.2m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The average price target fell 18% to US$3.29, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Traeger's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Traeger at US$4.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2024 compared to the historical decline of 5.2% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Traeger to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Traeger. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Traeger's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Traeger. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Traeger going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Traeger , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
