Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 29% in the last quarter. But in three years the returns have been great. The share price marched upwards over that time, and is now 275% higher than it was. So the recent fall in the share price should be viewed in that context. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.
In light of the stock dropping 6.0% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During three years of share price growth, Lynas Rare Earths achieved compound earnings per share growth of 79% per year. The average annual share price increase of 55% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 11.24.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Lynas Rare Earths has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Lynas Rare Earths' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Lynas Rare Earths' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Lynas Rare Earths' TSR, at 280% is higher than its share price return of 275%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 0.3% in the last year, Lynas Rare Earths shareholders lost 30%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 19%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Lynas Rare Earths you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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