The Supreme Court keeps helping Biden

On the surface, it’s a setback. On June 30, the Supreme Court, dominated by conservatives, overturned President Biden’s effort to forgive around $400 billion in student debt, or up to $20,000 apiece for more than 40 million borrowers. The ruling invalidates a Biden executive action from last year allowing the debt forgiveness.

Finding a way to forgive some student debt was a Biden campaign promise, so Biden has failed at that, for the time being. But the Supreme Court is also giving Biden the perfect foil for his reelection campaign and invigorating what might have otherwise been a sleepy retread of 2020.

The Supreme Court helped Biden and his fellow Democrats a year ago, when it overturned the longstanding Roe v. Wade nationwide right to abortion. Most Americans think the Supreme Court went too far, and that was clearly a factor in the 2022 midterm elections. Though they lost their House majority, Dems held onto more seats than expected. And they kept control of the Senate despite some predictions they’d lose that, too.

The court is simply out of step with the attitudes of voters on a variety of touchy issues, and it added substantially to the list in 2023. The student-debt case could easily add to the momentum last year's Roe decision generated. The portion of Americans who agree with the idea of some student-debt relief is around 60%, about the same as the portion of the public that favors abortion rights in most instances.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Biden doesn’t want to forgive all student debt, or go as high as the $50,000 ceiling Elizabeth Warren and many of her acolytes prefer. Biden's $20,000 maximum aligns with the amount polls show voters think is about right. Funny coincidence.

The Supreme Court bucked public opinion in another big case allowing some businesses to decline work for gay customers. Americans broadly think companies should support the nation’s LGBT community. In another blockbuster case, the Supreme Court shot down the use of affirmative action in college admissions, which could set the stage for legal challenges to workplace diversity and other efforts at inclusion. Americans are more divided on affirmative action, but liberals strongly support it and this ruling could energize what you might call the Democratic base.

Biden himself had expressed skepticism about whether the president has the legal authority to cancel student debt without Congressional legislation. The Supreme Court has now settled the question by saying no, the president can’t. But Congress can, by passing legislation doing just that. Democrats had control of Congress for the first two years of Biden’s presidency, but couldn’t muster the votes for a debt-cancellation bill.

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As important as it may be to overburdened borrowers who got in over their heads, many policy experts argue that there are better ways to target billions of dollars’ worth of government subsidies, such as helping low-income workers with child care costs or expanding the child tax credit. Student-debt relief, by contrast, would go to higher-earning and better-educated people.

That won’t stop Biden from trying again, however. Biden says he’ll take another shot at student-debt relief with a different legal approach. That, of course, is likely to face its own legal challenges. In the meantime, Biden is developing other programs to backstop struggling borrowers once a three-year repayment pause ends in September, and to reduce payments for borrowers enrolled in payment plans based on income.

Expect him to campaign hard on debt cancellation, as well, and tell voters, hey, I tried, but Donald Trump’s Supreme Court wouldn’t let me do it. So elect Democrats who are willing to write a law overruling the Supreme Court.

It could work. Not long ago, the Supreme Court was a highly respected institution. But its approval rating has plummeted in recent years, to around 40%—about the same level as Biden’s. Not surprisingly, views differ starkly between Democrats who largely disapprove of the court, and Republicans who approve by a slim majority.

That suggests two things: Biden can fire up liberal Democrats by running against the court’s controversial decisions on student debt, gay rights and abortion. That could boost Democratic turnout, which can be crucially important in a general election. Biden can also woo moderate swing voters by painting the court as out-of-touch with ordinary people.

Anything that moves swing voters one way or another can be decisive in presidential elections typically determined by a small portion of voters in just a handful toss-up states. The best thing an ambitious politician can hope for is a stark and gloomy alternative to run against, and the Supreme Court has given Biden that.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman

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