Yahoo Finance Terence Corcoran: The wildfire syllogism that just doesn't add up
Are we done with the Canadian wildfire smoke crisis? Here in Toronto, the post-wildfire week began with a cold snap and what seemed like record-breaking rainfall that caused traffic accidents and kept people off the streets. Missing were CBC and other media reports, along with political and environmental group statements, that this local weather event is hurting the economy and creating risks that are typical of what we can expect from the ravages of fossil-fuel-driven climate change.
There is, of course, no necessary connection between a heavy-duty rain event and carbon-driven climate change. But then there is also no necessary direct connection between wildfires and fossil-fuel-driven climate change.
The doubtfulness, or maybe even the non-existence, of the fire-carbon link has been consistently acknowledged globally and in Canada for many years. A 2013 report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded only that it is “possible to examine trends showing increased” wildfire events in North America. But these trends “have not yet been positively attributed to anthropogenic climate change.” The final 2014 report said an increased wildfire trend in North America had been “detected but not attributed” to man-made climate change.
A 2017 NASA Earth Observatory report concluded that there had been a decline in area burned by fires across the globe. The latest IPCC material “remains silent” on wildfires, and data from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre does not support the theory that wildfires are on the rise in Canada, let alone that climate change might be the cause of fires (see graphs).
But the lack of evidence of rising wildfires did not stop Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson from declaring that “It’s a simple fact that Canada’s experiencing the impacts of climate change, including more frequent and more extreme wildfires.”
Nor did the lack of statistical support for the fire-climate link discourage at least one commentator from fiddling with fundamental rules of logic to support a favourite climate-control policy.
The analysis/syllogism applied by the almost always impeccable Andrew Coyne went something like this: If climate change is happening in Canada, wildfires should be increasing. Canada’s national fire database shows a decline in wildfires in over the past 30 years. Therefore, we still need to do something to tackle climate change.
To be clear, the rules of logic cut both ways. Lack of wildfire evidence does not allow one to conclude that climate change is not happening. Coyne, however, concluded that the current wildfire outbreaks justify advocating in favour of carbon pricing as a policy that would, presumably, help reduce carbon emissions and therefore prevent an increase in wildfires that is not happening and might not even be linked to climate change. Data from a European agency shows that annual total global wildfire emissions have declined over the past 20 years.
The wobbly wildfire syllogism raged up and down the political system throughout last week. It gave climate alarmists an opportunity to fan the flames of climate fear. Said one activist: “The response must be to slash carbon pollution by phasing out fossil fuels. And fast.” At the White House, President Joe Biden said the smoke over Manhattan is “another stark reminder of the impact of climate change.”
A CBC Toronto radio team used the opportunity to turn the Ontario smoke situation into an apocalyptic event for school kids. The smoke “brings back memories of the lockdowns” and kindles “anxieties” children may feel about the devastating future they face under climate change. We need to begin coaching them on the climate crisis.
Throughout the week of alarmism, there was little or no mention of other aspects of the Canadian wildfire situation. Left aside were many coinciding developments unrelated to climate change, including random lightning strikes, forestry policies that interfere with good forest management practices, lack of fire-fighting preparedness — and unusual wind and weather patterns that drove smoke south.
TV weather-map depictions of wildfires last week showed an unusual pattern, with massive flows heading south from Canada. It’s apparently part of a weather pattern known as an Omega Block, a condition the causes heat waves and unusual atmospheric circulations. A new heat wave is forecast for later in June because of such block conditions. Could the block have been the reason Manhattan was engulfed in smoke? Don’t even think about it, unless you want to be branded a climate denier.
Meanwhile, it’s chilly here in Toronto for mid-June.
