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Super Bowl 2023: Why stock investors might want an Eagles blowout

One Super Bowl indicator shows why an Eagles triumph over the Chiefs could be bullish for stocks

Josh Schafer
·Reporter
Updated ·2 min read

Investors should hope the Philadelphia Eagles crush the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl LVII if they want to see stocks go up — at least, according to one market indicator.

In a new note on the “Super Bowl Indicator,” Carson Group Chief Markets Strategist Ryan Detrick highlighted two key takeaways: Over time, the S&P 500 has returned outsized gains when an NFC team wins, and returns are even higher when the game is a blowout, regardless of which conference the winner is from.

“Of course, this is totally random, but it turns out that when looking at the previous 56 Super Bowls, stocks do better when an NFC team wins the big game,” Detrick wrote.

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to take on the Eagles in the 57th Super Bowl at 6:30 p.m. Sunday. The Chiefs hail from the AFC conference, which has claimed 27 Super Bowl titles, while the Eagles play in the NFC, which has won 29 Super Bowls.

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Since the first Super Bowl in 1967, the S&P 500 has averaged an 8.5% yearly return. That number has dropped slightly in years after the AFC won the big game (6.9%) and ticked higher than average (10%) when the NFC won.

But the best years for markets have actually come when the game is won by a large margin, regardless of the victor, according to Detrick's note.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts warms up prior to the NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field on January 29, 2023. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts warms up prior to the NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field on January 29, 2023. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) (Kevin Sabitus via Getty Images)

The S&P 500 returns tend to be 13.6% higher — 5% more than the standard year — when the game is decided by 21 points or more. The most recent case happened in 2021 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Kansas Chiefs by 22 points. The S&P 500 returned 26.9% in that year.

According to the note, with a single-digit win, "the S&P 500 is up less than 5% on average and higher less than 60% of the time. A double-digit win? Things jump to about 11% and 79%."

Josh is a reporter and producer for Yahoo Finance.

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