Is Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Key Insights

• Spirit AeroSystems Holdings' estimated fair value is US$24.02 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of US$31.08 suggests Spirit AeroSystems Holdings is potentially 29% overvalued

• Analyst price target for SPR is US$35.53, which is 48% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Spirit AeroSystems Holdings

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	-US$315.5m	US$149.5m	US$313.5m	US$129.4m	US$215.0m	US$217.5m	US$220.8m	US$224.7m	US$229.1m	US$233.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x9	Analyst x12	Analyst x7	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ 1.15%	Est @ 1.52%	Est @ 1.78%	Est @ 1.96%	Est @ 2.08%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%	-US$292	US$128	US$248	US$94.4	US$145	US$136	US$127	US$120	US$113	US$106

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$925m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$234m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.4%) = US$4.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$4.1b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)¹⁰= US$1.9b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.8b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$31.1, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Spirit AeroSystems Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.263. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Spirit AeroSystems Holdings

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings.

Weakness

• Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

• Forecast to reduce losses next year.

• Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio.

Threat

• Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

• Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.

• Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, we've compiled three additional factors you should further research:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Spirit AeroSystems Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does SPR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.