Yahoo Finance South China Sea clash raises stakes even higher as scepticism surrounds Manila talks
The recent clash in the South China Sea - one of the most intense skirmishes in recent memory - revealed the fragility of peace in this volatile region.
Following the incident, officials from China and the Philippines convened in Manila, striving to navigate their stark maritime disagreements over this strategic and highly-valuable global shipping route.
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The discussions centred on managing the precarious situation at the Second Thomas Shoal, with both sides pledging to sustain dialogue and consultation to control disputes and differences. Yet, scepticism looms amid the momentum.
Analysts said that it remains to be seen whether the resilience of the bilateral consultative mechanism and the trust between Manila and Beijing - even if eroding - can indeed cool the waters in one of Asia's most disputed areas.
With tensions simmering and the dialogue channel seemingly constricting, the stakes are higher than ever.
Vessels from Beijing and Manila routinely engaged in naval face-offs, sometimes causing damage to the Philippine ships and injuring its crew.
On June 17, the Chinese coastguard and the Philippine Navy experienced one of the worst clashes on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, the first after Beijing's new coastguard guidelines took effect and permitted the detainment of foreigners for up to 60 days.
In the incident, the Chinese coastguard intercepted a Philippine naval mission to resupply troops stationed on the disputed reef and even conducted a boarding inspection on a Philippine navy boat that could qualify for sovereign immunity.
Sitting at the centre of the confrontations is a crumbling World War Two-era Philippine navy ship, BRP Sierra Madre, which was deliberately grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to advance Manila's claim in the hotly contested water.
Since then, Manila has deployed a handful of troops on the ship, which largely depends on supplies sent from coastal towns.
Beijing aims to play a long game on the rusting ship as experts around the world question how much longer the ship can last as natural forces take their toll on the metal.
But Manila is said to be quietly fortifying the shipwreck to extend its life, constituting a major concern to Beijing.
In 2016, an international tribunal ruled in favour of Manila over its South China Sea disputes with Beijing, which determined China's nine-dash line claims had no legal basis.
Beijing refused to recognise the ruling, saying the arbitration was null and void.
Some analysts said that Manila is seeking to prepare a second arbitration case against China.
In addition to the Second Thomas Shoal, the Chinese coastguard and the Philippine vessels also clashed around Scarborough Shoal in the Spratly Islands, which Beijing seized control of in 2012 after a tense stand-off with Manila and constantly deployed coastguard forces and fishing militia to patrol the waters.
Concerns have been mounting that the tensions in the South China Sea could quickly escalate, potentially triggering a long-standing mutual defence treaty between Manila and Washington.
As China's most significant geopolitical adversary, the United States has been increasingly vocal about its concerns over China's expanding military presence in these contested regions.
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in May, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr carved out a red line for the South China Sea row, saying that the deaths of any civilians is "almost certainly going to be a red line".
Since taking office two years ago, Marcos has adopted a tougher approach than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte's conciliatory way against Beijing over the South China Sea disputes, using an assertive transparency strategy to expose Chinese activities in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.
Numerous other nations in Asia, Europe and beyond have also followed Washington and voiced their worries about the situation in the South China Sea and Beijing's behaviour, and this equates to a disturbing trend from Beijing's perspective.
Besides trading barbs over their frequent collisions at sea, two supposed deals thrust Beijing and Manila into the spotlight.
In April, Beijing revealed that the Duterte administration had reportedly struck a deal with China in 2016, permitting Filipino fishermen to return to Scarborough Shoal, a historically abundant fishing area.
The other alleged arrangement concerning the Second Thomas Shoal enabled Manila to deliver essential supplies to its forces, though it barred the transport of construction materials intended for reinforcing the stranded vessel.
Marcos and officials from the Duterte administration refuted the existence of such agreements, while a congressional investigation was initiated to examine gentleman's agreements due to escalating worries about their influence on the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Meanwhile, tensions are also brewing in Sabina Shoal, known as Escoda Shoal in the Philippines and located around 75 nautical miles west of Palawan, the westernmost island province of the Philippines. It also sits roughly 30 nautical miles away from Second Thomas Shoal.
Last week, Beijing said its coastguard had "followed and monitored" three Philippine ships sending supplies to the "illegally stranded" ship at the Sabina Shoal, sending a worrying signal that the shoal could potentially be a new front for clashes between the two nations.
On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian insisted that the Sabina Shoal is part of China, not Manila's exclusive economic zone, and the patrolling and law-enforcement behaviours of Beijing's navy and coastguard vessels there are in line with its domestic and international law.
Since May, Manila has bolstered its coastguard presence in the unoccupied shoal and deployed one of its most advanced coastguard vessels, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, to monitor Beijing's suspected land-reclamation activities, which Beijing has strongly denied.
Amid all these new changes that sent bilateral relations into a tailspin, experts foresee a tough and challenging future for diplomacy to manoeuvre, as anything related to China - such as tourism, academic exchanges, offshore gambling, economy and investments - can become politicised and securitised in the Philippines, which could further deteriorate bilateral ties.
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Illustration: Henry Wong alt=Illustration: Henry Wong>
Beijing struggles to keep it bilateral as South China Sea tensions go global
Beijing's high-handed assertion of maritime claims has drawn international censure, putting its preferred approach of bilateral solutions at risk
Flare-ups between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea have drawn greater regional and even global attention, posing a challenge to Beijing's preference for a bilateral approach to resolving maritime disputes.
Beijing is deeply concerned about the internationalisation of the South China Sea dispute, according to observers, even as its high-handed approach to asserting its expansive claims to the resource-rich waters spark concern, criticism and even resentment.
Photo: Reuters alt=Photo: Reuters>
Beijing exploiting talks to assert control over South China Sea: analysts
Analysts argue Beijing's negotiations with the Philippines are being exploited to normalise China's control over contested territory
Despite pledges to de-escalate tensions in the South China Sea, analysts and sources familiar with Beijing and Manila's negotiations allege that China is exploiting the bilateral talks as a strategy to legitimise its control over disputed maritime territory in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.
Following the latest round of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) on the South China Sea, held in Manila on July 2, the Philippine government acknowledged that "significant differences remain" between the two countries' positions.
Photo: Philippine Coast alt=Photo: Philippine Coast>
Sabina Shoal the next flashpoint in Manila-Beijing flare-up amid talks?
Rear admiral says Philippines will take 'necessary' action to protect maritime rights as analysts warn Sabina Shoal could be next conflict flashpoint
A top Philippine official has dismissed a Chinese report over its actions in the Sabina Shoal in the disputed South China Sea, insisting Manila has the right to "do anything that we wish" in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts by Manila and Beijing to de-escalate growing tensions in the region, analysts warn the Sabina Shoal could be the next flashpoint for conflict between the two countries, given China's vocal opposition to the Philippines' increased presence at the disputed maritime feature.
Photo: AFP alt=Photo: AFP>
Is Imee Marcos 'warmongering' with claims China plans to target Philippine sites?
Philippine Senator Imee Marcos claimed, without proof, China was planning to target several sites across her country with hypersonic missile strikes
Philippine Senator Imee Marcos has made explosive claims about plans by China to target sites across her country with hypersonic missile strikes. However, observers say her comments are politically motivated and Beijing would be unlikely to risk such an attack even if it has the capabilities.
The senator, who is also the sister of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, made the allegations in a video posted to TikTok and Facebook.
Photo: Xinhua alt=Photo: Xinhua>
Philippines' Duterte called China a 'close friend'. Now he's changing his tune
Duterte may be recalibrating his pro-China stance to win support for his family's electoral ambitions, analysts say
Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who once called Chinese President Xi Jinping a very close friend, is taking a harder stance against Beijing by doubling down on his country's claims in the South China Sea, a move seen as a bid to shore up support for his family's electoral ambitions.
In a Sunday press conference aired by local media, Duterte said that as a Filipino he would insist the West Philippine Sea - Manila's term for waters in the South China Sea within its exclusive economic zone - belonged to the Filipinos, a stance that appeared to contradict his soft foreign policy towards Beijing when he was in office.
Photo: AFP alt=Photo: AFP>
Defiant Filipino fishermen avert South China Sea detention threat - for now
Chinese patrols have 'gotten stricter' since Beijing passed its anti-trespassing law, the fishermen say
Filipino fishermen continue to find themselves at the sharp end of the long-running South China Sea row between Manila and Beijing, with tensions showing no signs of abating and the Chinese coastguard stepping up patrols close to Philippine waters.
Last Tuesday, the fishermen of Masinloc town in Zambales province spotted Chinese vessels some 30 nautical miles (56km) off the coast.
Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Photo: EPA-EFE>
'On the brink': unpacking the dramatic collapse of China-Philippines ties
Their churning South China Sea quarrel has now reached 'boiling point' - and Filipinos are demanding action
Concrete pillars once dotted the landscape of Malolos, north of Manila, in the grand first phase of a billion-peso Chinese-backed rail project meant to transform transport in the Philippines. That was in 2008: a time of promise and partnership with Beijing.
Fast forward 16 years and those 80 support pillars are now gone, torn down after the ambitious Northrail scheme was abandoned amid allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Yet 200km to the northwest, a new structure is taking shape - one with very different intentions.
Photo: Reuters alt=Photo: Reuters>
Is Philippines considering education to turn the tide of South China Sea row?
The calls come before the new education minister takes office amid rising tensions between Manila and Beijing over the South China Sea
The Philippines should incorporate discussions on maritime territory into its national history curriculum, a former chief justice said, ahead of the new education minister taking office.
Former judge Antonio Carpio said educating Filipinos on issues such as the ruling in Manila's favour by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016 could help the Philippines win the fight against Beijing's claims in the entire South China Sea. \
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