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Shop price inflation at lowest point since October 2021

inflation  London, UK.  19 June 2024.  Shoppers on Oxford Street as retailers begin their summer sales period.  The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has reported that annual CPI inflation was 2.0 per cent in May, falling from 2.3 per cent in April.  The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) expects the Bank of England to exercise caution at its meeting tomorrow and hold to interest rates.  Credit: Stephen Chung / Alamy Live News
Discounts on products like TVs took the heat out of retail inflation in June. (Stephen Chung)

Shop price inflation has fallen to its lowest levels since October 2021, down to 0.2% in June from 0.6% a month before, according to new British Retail Consortium (BRC) data. June's reading is also below the three-month average of 0.5%.

It was the fourteenth consecutive month of decline in food price inflation, down to 2.5% from 3.2% in May.

Drops in the prices of products like butter and coffee were key drivers of this fall, the BRC said.

Prices of non-food products fell 1%, down from -0.8% in May. This was below the three-month average deceleration of -0.8%.

The non-food dip was driven by retailers trying to drive sales by discounting products. "This was particularly true for TVs with great deals to capitalise on the Euros fever," said Helen Dickenson, BRC chief executive.

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Read more: UK house prices rise in June, despite high mortgage rates

“Whoever wins Thursday’s election will benefit from the work of retailers to cut their costs and prices, easing the cost of living for millions of households," she added.

“The last few years should serve as a warning that where business costs rise significantly, consumer prices are forced up too."

The data will be welcome news for the Bank of England, which is on course to cut interest rates later this summer. There is no central bank meeting with regards to rates in July, so a cut is now expected in August. Interest rates have been held at 5.25%, a 16-year high, despite inflation falling back to the Bank's 2% target.

It will also be a good starting point for the next government, as voters head to the polls on Thursday.

“The next government must address some of the major cost burdens weighing down the retail industry, including the broken business rates system, and inflexible apprenticeship levy," said Dickenson.

“By doing so, retailers can invest in lower prices for the future — helping to reduce the cost of living pressures that many families face.”

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