Is Savaria Corporation (TSE:SIS) Trading At A 22% Discount?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Savaria fair value estimate is CA$21.71

• Current share price of CA$16.84 suggests Savaria is potentially 22% undervalued

• The CA$21.56 analyst price target for SISis comparable to our estimate of fair value.

How far off is Savaria Corporation (TSE:SIS) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Savaria

Is Savaria Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$78.5m	CA$87.2m	CA$94.4m	CA$100.4m	CA$105.4m	CA$109.7m	CA$113.4m	CA$116.6m	CA$119.6m	CA$122.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Est @ 11.08%	Est @ 8.30%	Est @ 6.35%	Est @ 4.98%	Est @ 4.03%	Est @ 3.36%	Est @ 2.89%	Est @ 2.56%	Est @ 2.34%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.9%	CA$72.1	CA$73.5	CA$73.1	CA$71.4	CA$68.8	CA$65.8	CA$62.4	CA$59.0	CA$55.5	CA$52.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$654m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$122m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8.9%– 1.8%) = CA$1.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$1.8b÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)¹⁰= CA$748m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$1.4b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$16.8, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 22% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Savaria as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.195. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Savaria

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by earnings.

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Savaria, there are three important factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Savaria that you need to consider before investing here.

2. Future Earnings: How does SIS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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