Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Chemring Group PLC (LON:CHG)

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 23x in the United Kingdom, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Chemring Group PLC's (LON:CHG) P/E ratio of 23.1x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Chemring Group could be doing better as it's been growing earnings less than most other companies lately. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will turn around. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

See our latest analysis for Chemring Group

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Keen to find out how analysts think Chemring Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Chemring Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 10% gain to the company's bottom line. However, due to its less than impressive performance prior to this period, EPS growth is practically non-existent over the last three years overall. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 5.5% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 17% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that Chemring Group's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Chemring Group's P/E

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Chemring Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Chemring Group.

If you're unsure about the strength of Chemring Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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