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Will Revenue Decline Hinder Juniper's (JNPR) Q1 Earnings?

Juniper Networks, Inc. JNPR is set to release its first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25, after the closing bell. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.37%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

The leading provider of networking solutions and communication devices is expected to report a year-over-year revenue decline due to soft demand trends in cloud and service provider verticals stemming from macroeconomic headwinds and stiff competition. However, healthy traction for AI-driven wireless solutions is expected to partially cushion the top line.

Key Developments to Consider

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is set to acquire Juniper for an all-cash transaction of $40.00 per share, totaling an equity value of approximately $14 billion. The combined capabilities of the enterprises will likely facilitate the development of more advanced and intelligent networking solutions tailored to the increasingly complex connectivity needs of businesses. The transaction is also expected to better equip the joint entity to fend off the growing competition from other industry leaders such as Cisco Systems. The buyout, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, is expected to be completed in late 2024 or early 2025.

The proposed acquisition deal represents a significant premium over Juniper's current share price of $36.06 per share. With shareholders overwhelmingly supporting the deal, there's strong investor backing and potential for gains upon successful closure. However, risks such as regulatory approvals and the possibility of the deal falling through can impact investors' profits.

Factors at Play

During the quarter, Juniper joined forces with Coherent Corp. and Marvell Technology Inc. to showcase the industry's first comprehensive 800ZR systems designed to augment network performance capabilities and drive innovations in data center interconnect, metro networks and beyond. Juniper collaborated with Samsung to develop a virtual cell site router offering end-to-end virtualization of network infrastructure. It also introduced the industry's first AI-Native Networking Platform to streamline IT operations. These initiatives are expected to strengthen Juniper's portfolio and are likely to have a positive impact on its upcoming results.

In the quarter under review, Juniper's AI-driven wireless network was implemented at James Cook University Singapore and National Chi Nan University in Taiwan, enhancing wireless access capabilities on campus. These deployments are likely to have supported the top line in the quarter.

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However, Juniper faces intense competition in each of its served markets, putting pressure on margins. Additionally, global macroeconomic challenges have led customers to cautiously assess budgets, impacting sales in several verticals.

Overall Expectations

Our estimate for revenues from the Cloud vertical is pegged at $235.2 million, implying an 11.2% year-over-year decline. For the Service Provider segment, our revenue estimate stands at $396.7 million, suggesting a 27.9% decline year over year. Our estimate for revenues from the Enterprise business is pegged at $579.5 million, implying 4% year-over-year growth.

For the March quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues is pegged at $1.23 billion, indicating a decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $1.37 billion. The consensus estimate for adjusted earnings per share stands at 39 cents, suggesting a decrease from 48 cents reported in the prior-year quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Juniper this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%, with both pegged at 39 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Juniper Networks, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Juniper Networks, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Juniper Networks, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Juniper Networks, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Juniper Networks, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Juniper currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Qualcomm Incorporated QCOM is set to release quarterly numbers on May 1. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Meta Platforms META is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Apr 24. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Earnings ESP for NVIDIA Corporation NVDA is +1.68% and it sports a Zacks Rank of 1. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on May 22.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar

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QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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