Yahoo Finance Results: Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
A week ago, Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE:TPH) came out with a strong set of annual numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$3.7b arriving 2.3% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$3.45, 6.7% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Tri Pointe Homes
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Tri Pointe Homes are now predicting revenues of US$4.12b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 7.7% to US$3.88. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.66 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target rose 5.4% to US$39.17, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Tri Pointe Homes, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$42.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Tri Pointe Homes' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tri Pointe Homes is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Tri Pointe Homes following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Tri Pointe Homes analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Tri Pointe Homes that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
