Yahoo Finance Results: NBT Bancorp Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ:NBTB) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.1% to US$35.33 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$123m were in line with what the analysts predicted, NBT Bancorp surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.90 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for NBT Bancorp
Taking into account the latest results, NBT Bancorp's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2022 to be US$494.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 9.2% to US$3.25 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$488.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.08 in 2022. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on NBT Bancorp's earnings potential following these results.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$41.20, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NBT Bancorp at US$45.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$38.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that NBT Bancorp is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the NBT Bancorp's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NBT Bancorp's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 1.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.8% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that NBT Bancorp is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards NBT Bancorp following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that NBT Bancorp's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$41.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NBT Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple NBT Bancorp analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - NBT Bancorp has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
