Q4 2023 Spire Global Inc Earnings Call

Participants

Ben Hoffmann; IR; Spire Global, Inc.

Peter Platzer; CEO and President; Spire Global, Inc.

Leo Basola; CFO; Spire Global, Inc.

Austin Moeller; Analyst; Canaccord Genuity Group, Inc.

Ric Prentiss; Analyst; Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Jeff Meuler; Analyst; Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

Erik Rasmussen; Analyst; Stifel Nicolaus and Company, Inc.

Suji Desilva; Analyst; ROTH Capital Partners, LLC

Presentation

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Spire Global Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ben Hoffmann, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ben Hoffmann

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Our earnings press release and SEC filings can be found on our IR website at ir.spire.com. A replay of today's call will also be made available. With me today on the call is Peter Platzer, ourCEO; and Leo Basola, our CFO. As a reminder, our commentary today will include non-GAAP items. Reconciliations between our GAAP and non-GAAP results as well as our guidance can be found in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation, both of which can be found on our IR website at ir dot Spire.com.
Some of our comments today contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. In particular, our expectations around our results of operations and financial conditions are uncertain and subject to change. Should any of these expectations fail to materialize or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual Company results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. A description of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions and other factors that could affect our financial results is included in our SEC filings and with that, let me hand the call over to Peter.

Peter Platzer

Thank you, Ben. Good afternoon, everyone. I am thrilled to welcome you to today's call. As we embark on this discussion I want to extend my deepest gratitude to our dedicated team for their resilience and innovation propelled us from three profitability to a landmark year in 2023, we achieved not only positive operating cash flow, but also positive adjusted EBITDA that surpassed our expectations for Q4.
Our journey last year was nothing short of remarkable. We rallied together as a team with grit and determination to be a reliable collaborative partner for our customers. We captured the surging demand for our radio frequency geo-location data vital for addressing global security threats, and we forged strong partnerships to build powerful solutions for the future. This translated into significant achievements was five. We secured multiple million dollar contracts, reinforcing our market value and trust with our customers. We celebrated the signing of three pivotal significant space services deals involving 18 satellites, showcasing our expanding capabilities.
Our launch of 23 satellites across multiple missions, master record for the operational versatility and applicability of our solutions, the introduction of our deep Vision platform at higher resolution, whether model revolutionize for our customers, how they can understand and prepare for imminent weather patterns. The deployment of our satellite mission operations platform signifies a leap forward for the industry in efficiency, reliability and management of space assets and the signing of a strategic partnership and investment in AIML. powered solutions set the foundation for cutting-edge advancements in maritime domain awareness. These milestones contributed to our 10th consecutive quarter of record revenue and a substantial 32% annual revenue growth rate.
We met and exceeded our objective of generating positive operating cash flow, and we achieved positive adjusted EBITDA earlier than anticipated. These milestones also align with two global mega trends that shape our world today and has been at the core of Spire's long-term business plan since its inception almost 12 years ago. Climate change and global security from the intensifying weather events to geopolitical tensions. These trends underscore the critical nature of our work as Aspire from floods to droughts to wildfires and devastating storms as Stan off the daily headlines reminds us of the weather volatility that is becoming ever more common warmer temperatures, leading to a record heat base throughout the globe.
And record intensification of storms by wildfires are contributing to poor air quality in cities, thousands of miles away. U.s. set a new record for the number of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023 and 28 in total six more than the previous record, which was set only three years earlier already in 2024. Shocking images have emerged of at Lake forming at Death Valley, no less one of the hottest places on earth and houses balancing on the edge of a cliff after a record amount of rainfalls have caused land to collapse into the oceans. Meanwhile, the world is watching a number of upcoming elections and the events surrounding those elections, speculation and balance and what may result from those outcomes.
There has been ongoing conflict in Europe, the Middle East and strained tensions in Asia, shipping has been interrupted in the Red Sea. Funding of certain geopolitical activities and sanctions against other activities has resulted in a highly dynamic environment, an environment in which truths and transparency have never been more important, an environment that remains supportive and some might say in need of Spire solutions, buyer has continued to make investments in our products to capture demand stemming from these trends.
Last fall, we announced a new weather Platform Division along with a high resolution weather month forecasts from this by a high-resolution, whether model, achieve world-class accuracy and allow our users to make decisions concerning the weather faster than ever through the incorporation of Smiles weather data into government weather forecasts, individuals across the world have better more valuable weather prediction. The rapid emergence of AI and machine learning capabilities in weather prediction is swiftly moving the power from those with access to massive supercomputers. Those with access to massive super data, in particular from SpaceX. Spire is at the very forefront of capitalizing on the shift.
And I could not be more excited about the new products services and partnerships that despite team is rolling out to help communities, corporations and countries tackle the challenges of climate and weather to their safety business, wireless and security, our technological advancements and strategic alliances like the partnership with single ocean are a testament to our leadership. Spire will contribute its unique proprietary dataset relevant for precise monitoring of the maritime domain, while single ocean will bring its best-in-class expertise in AI, machine learning and in particular, natural language processing to create new innovative solutions. Together, we are enhancing maritime digitalization and global security.
Moreover, we have continued to see demand for our differentiated, highly valuable solutions. A couple of weeks ago, we announced a multimillion dollar award from the European Maritime Safety Agency for vessel monitoring, particularly in the Pilbara region. The coverage outside of Spire space-based data is very limited. Indeed, during the fourth quarter, I know in January we announced agreements to build and operate a six satellite dedicated IoT Constellation for the communal space and multi-million dollar award related to weather data from human at and a $9.4 million award from NOA for eight months of weather day as geopolitical interests are more frequently.
Turning to Space space, situational awareness is becoming more important in an increasingly contested environment. We were excited to be deploying the first commercial space situational awareness, satellite constellation for NovaStar through our space services offering. Our white-glove end-to-end space services offering allows companies to quickly deploy and rapidly scale a constellation to take advantage of emerging trends from, for example, space situational awareness to wildfire and greenhouse gas monitoring. What started as a handful of satellites can quickly multiply to a full constellation in a matter of just a few years as the capability and power of smaller satellites continue to improve tenfold every five years, we are now able to deploy a full constellation in roughly the same timeframe in which a single legacy satellite would traditionally have been produced. This is transformational technical capability at work, creating a more prosperous and safe future for oil.
Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond. Our track record speaks for itself over the last two years. We've not just met our profitability targets. We more often than not exceeded them even amid the rollercoaster of economic conditions during this period. This speaks volumes about our strategic focus and operational excellence, our ability to meet or surpass our ambitious annual profitability guidance set each March underscores our unwavering commitment to financial health and shareholder value, navigating through a period marked by unprecedented challenges from geopolitical tensions to economic uncertainties, including inflation, potential recession and the rapid shifts in central bank policies.
Our strategy has been on Weber. Our adaptability in the face of such adversity has not only kept us. On course, it has also proven the resilience and robustness of our business model. Despite the external pressures, we have not only stayed the course, but have also marked significant milestones towards our goal of sustained profitability. Our anticipation of positive free cash flow by the summer is a commitment we made two years ago. One, we are placed to fulfill. The achievement is not just a mere milestone. It is a clear indication of our strategic foresight and the effective execution of our business plan.
Our ability to pivot and adapt all while driving towards profitability demonstrates the strength and sustainability of R-MO BioZ unique subscription business model is the cornerstone of this success by blending the high barriers to entry and large addressable markets, characteristics of deep tech with the cost efficiencies and scalability of software companies, we have created a model that not only supports rapid growth but also ensures profitability. Spire clearly stands out in the industry landscape and our high gross margins and growth rates and not just numbers. They are a reflection of an innovative business model and designed for resilience and long-term financial health.
Given that all our products are sold as a subscription, we benchmark ourselves against the SaaS metrics of public companies. In 2023, public SaaS companies saw a slowdown in a few of the growth metrics as the industry has pivoted to focus on profitability. Spire has been focused on reaching profitable growth since becoming a public company. And as a result of this focus, we have been able to maintain a strong growth rate while dramatically improving each quarter, our profitability metrics reaching our first profitable quarter on an adjusted EBITDA basis in Q4, while revenue growth for public SaaS companies cooled from about 28% to 19% .
In 2023, Spire Accel with the growth rate of 32%, mitigating the contraction in net retention rate to a mere 15 percentage points inclusive of a key contracts secured at the onset of 2024 and better than public comparables with ICE trays on to 2024, we envision strong top line growth surpassing 30% and steering towards a 35% midpoint growth guidance. Delving a bit deeper into profitability indicators, the lifetime value of the customer relative to customer acquisition, cost shines a spotlight on the profitability of your customer base and whether additional value can be created by investing in more sales and marketing.
A benchmark ratio of about three times is still quite robust in the estimating Spire, however, currently generates lifetime value of over 12 times our customer acquisition costs and vivid demonstration of the exceptional and lasting value Spire delivers to its customers, thanks to Spire's very high gross retention rates. Customers may stay with Spire for many, many years. As such, we are attracting a more conservative metric which discounts the value of future money to a net present value. This more conservative net present lifetime value still covers our customer acquisition cost eight times over this bolsters our confidence to accelerate Spire's growth by strategically challenging further investment into our sales and marketing efforts, all while preserving a robust bottom line with our subscription business model.
Spire has cracked the code of building a high-growth, high-margin space company. As we project our goals further out, we're not content with just maintaining a trajectory. We aim to accelerate driving top-line growth consistently above 30%, achieving gross margins over 70% and maintaining positive cash flow. These are more than objectives. They are the hallmark of great subscription companies, and we plan to stand firmly among them. Our achievements to date just the beginning of this journey, did they already set us apart in the competitive landscape? We are committed to continuing this trajectory, driving value for our shareholders and redefining the possibilities for our industry base has inspired people for Millennia, bringing hope for a better future for this space.
Economy estimated to reach $1 trillion or more by 2030 as thousands and thousands of companies look for and find ways to leverage space. Spire is bringing that hope to people and places all around the world. We are mission driven to improve life on earth with data and insights that could only be collected from space. Our commitment to this mission is stronger than ever, and I'm excited for Spire to deliver on this promise and increasing the impactful base. And thank you for your trust and support on this journey. And with that, I'll turn it over to Leo.

Leo Basola

Thank you, Peter. I hope listeners are as excited as I am about Spire for any CFPA, that would be a tough act to follow, but let me keep the energy high. Our results clearly support that level of excitement. Q4 was yet another quarter of strong execution at $27.7 million of revenue. We met our expectations for the fourth quarter, an even more significant achievement considering that the launch of our North Star Constellation moved from December 2023 to January 2024 and delayed some revenue recognition. Our Q4 results yet again. So a trend of continued record revenue for the 10 quarters. We have been a public company for full year revenues of $105.7 million fell within our guidance range and at 32% growth met our expectations for annual revenue year-over-year growth of over 30%. Reported ARR at quarter end was $106.8 million. This excludes a $9.4 million, eight month contract for radio occupation or Arrow weather data.
This award was received January fourth, 2020 for only 96 hours after close due to an administrative systems issue on our customer side. As a result of this contract not being formally awarded by December 31st, we prepaid $2 million of principal on our Bluedoor its debt to remain in compliance with the air our covenant through the end of 2023, including this, our own contract awarded in early 2024, which represents $14.1 million ARR. We're currently at over $120 million in ARR, a level over the highest ARR required by our debt covenants. With this achievement, we will no longer be providing guidance on this metric, but we'll continue to report our ARR results in our quarterly and annual financials.
Consistent with the maturing of the company. Our covenants will shift to adjusted EBITDA, we will provide guidance on adjusted EBITDA as we have done thus far. We will also start to provide insights on other SaaS metrics with the intention of giving additional transparency around our superior business model.
Another metric that we feel provides insight into our future revenues is our remaining performance obligations. As of the end of the fourth quarter, we had almost $200 million of remaining performance obligations that have not yet been recognized as revenue. 40% of that revenue is scheduled to materialize in the next 12 months. This creates a good line of sight regarding a meaningful amount of contractually committed future revenues. For full year 2023, gross margins expanded to 60% on a GAAP basis and 64% on a non-GAAP basis. This reflects a 10 percentage point improvement over 2022 on a GAAP basis and nine percentage point improvement on a non-GAAP basis.
As we look forward to the end of 2024, we expect further improvement in our full year gross margins compared to 2023. Next, I'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Unless otherwise stated, we have provided a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financials in our earnings release and investor presentation, both of which are available in our Investor Relations website and should be reviewed in conjunction with this earnings call, but Q4 operating loss was better than the high end of our guidance range at negative $3.6 million. This reflects a 65% year-over-year improvement and a 43% improvement sequentially quarter over quarter. Operating margin was negative 13% for the quarter and represents a 33-percentage-points operating margin improvement year over year.
The overperformance can be attributed to diligent management on the discretionary spend and a tight control of headcount, which resulted in lower compensation and benefit payout. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the fourth quarter, a result that was not expected until the first half of 2024 at positive $2.1 million or 8% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was over $1 million above the high end of our range. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was negative $11 million, a 66% improvement from full year 2022 results. This full year result reflects the operational leverage we're able to generate from our deployed assets.
Let's now move on to the balance sheet and specifically our cash position. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short term marketable securities of almost $41 million, which was in line with our expectations. We successfully generated positive cash flow from operations as committed with a $9.2 million sequential improvement, we achieved positive cash flow from operations of $4.1 million. Turning to free cash flow, we saw an 86% sequential improvement to negative $2.2 million in the fourth quarter. This includes a $4.5 million prepayment of debt.
We feel confident in our journey to deliver positive free cash flow in the summer of 2024. We usually receive this question from investors regarding what we will do with the cash we expect to generate as we become free cash flow positive. As you know, there remain mainly three uses of cash, debt repayment, share repurchases and investments in growth. I would like to expand a bit on the last one because this is where we will most likely allocate most of the cash flow we generate going forward. Peter mentioned in his opening remarks, we benchmark Spire against SaaS businesses, and we have some of the strongest SaaS metrics in the industry. Not only have we grown revenues at over 30% year over year.
Our LTV to stack is over 12 times undiscounted and over eight times discounted, we plan on providing additional SaaS metrics in the future. And what you should take away from this is that Spire provides superior value to our customers with our proprietary data assets and solutions. And that given our high A., our net retention rates of over 102% for 2023 strong gross retention rates and efficient direct sales approach. We believe the Company valuation can benefit significantly over the long run from reinvestment in growth areas, particularly sales, product and marketing going back to the second use of cash debt repayment. The existing loan terms resulted in Spire paying roughly $16.7 million of net interest payment or about $0.85 a share in 2023. We continue to foster a good relationship with our current lenders.
And as we discussed last quarter, we believe our credit profile and rating is better than what we're currently paying for as a comparison in the quarters prior to taking out our current loan, Spire was burning over $16 million of operating cash flow each quarter. Last quarter, Spire generated over $4 million of positive operating cash flow, and we expect to continue generating positive operating cash flow going forward. Additionally, we achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4, and we added $10 million to our balance sheet in February through a strategic investment that valued our share at $12 per share or roughly a 50% premium on our market price at the time of the announcement.
These achievements set us up for continued dialogue with more traditional lenders to explore opportunities for interest rates, more in line with our current credit risk profile. It remains our objective to refinance our current loan in the second half of 2024 or very early 2025 at end. Now turning to our outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2024. We believe 2024 will be a marquee year for Aspire One, where we sustain positive adjusted EBITDA for the year and start seeing positive free cash flow in December. Quarterly results can still fluctuate given the quarterly timing of various metrics, and we're confident in our annual commitment supported by our strong track record. As a reminder, we met or exceeded all six of our bottom line guidance metrics for 2022 and 2023 that were set in March of each respective year.
For the first quarter, we expect revenue to range between [$27,000,029] million dollars before stepping up in the second, third and fourth quarter as new space service assets begin to deliver data. For the full year, we expect a revenue range from $138 million to $148 million. The 2024 midpoint reflects yet another high double digit growth year at 35% year-over-year growth. Given the operational leverage, we are continuing to see across our business. We anticipate full year 2024 non-GAAP operating earnings to range from negative 5.5 million to positive $2.5 million, which is at $24.3 million improvement year-over-year at the midpoint.
For the first quarter, we expect non-GAAP operating loss to range between [$8,000,000] million dollars and then turn positive after the second quarter, driven by higher revenues as base service assets begin to deliver data. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is expected to range from positive $13 million to positive $19 million which represents an improvement of $27 million year over year at the midpoint. For the first quarter, we're expecting a range from negative $2 million to zero. And then for adjusted EBITDA to remain positive starting in Q2 of 2024.
We expect our non-GAAP loss per share for the first quarter to range from negative $0.36 to negative $0.27, which assumes a basic weighted average share count of approximately $22 million shares. For the full year, we expect our non-GAAP loss per share to range from negative $0.24 to positive $0.11, which assumes a basic weighted average share count of approximately $22.5 million shares. Turning to our replenishment CapEx needs for 2024, we expect to spend between five and $7 million to replenish our constellation that supports our data and analytics business.
This is in line with our replenishment CapEx in 2022 and 2023 data that we're now providing in our 10 K as we're continuing to provide additional transparency around there. It has a strong track record of delivering on our commitments at Spire, we call it being reliable, which is at the core of our values alongside with faster and relentless. That's the kind of theme we have at Spire, and that's what motivates me every day. Thanks for joining us today. And now I would like to open up the call for questions.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Austin Moeller, Canaccord Genuity.

Austin Moeller

Hi, good afternoon. Great quarter for my first question here. Probably for Leo. Since free cash flow use was so low in Q4, can you detail what working capital or other CapEx items are leading you to maintain positive free cash flow guidance in Q2 to two three? Or does summer technically indicate that it's moved to the left a little bit, Austin, thank you.

Peter Platzer

And listen, the free cash flow for summer is what we said before around Q2. Q3 is a time line where we expect that to be the case, free cash flow includes CapEx and our CapEx in total is also subject to their space services launches in the space services activities. So when you think about our free cash flow becoming positive. It's a combination of the timing of the services activities that we do, the builds and the launch and also our ability to turn on some of those data provision contracts that.
As I described and you can see in our presentation, are extremely positive cash flow generator after they go effectively in service. So we have a bunch of those that launched late in 2024 and early in Q1. As those become operational, it will become a significant contributor to our cash flow position.

Austin Moeller

Great. And just a follow up. This question might be for Peter. But when do you expect that eats up might award a follow-on contract with your ELO Constellation after you finish the first demo satellite.

Peter Platzer

So the yes, the time line things off with a question is that towards the end of the urea other project, which was always our target to be a two to three year project. And the European Commission has come out and said like that's roughly where we want to get going and have a massive constellation of and probably a few hundred spacecraft that provide a few seconds of latency off of a civilian aircraft tracking over the European area and without the need for the GPS signal that is embedded in the ADS-B information.
So I would that I would expect, given the time line of European institutions, that those discussions will start to get underway as the reality project reaches kind of like its mid point, maybe a little bit further, but I do not expect them to be actually awarded much before if at all the end, your yellow project.

Austin Moeller

Great. That's very helpful. Thanks for the details course.

Operator

Ric Prentiss, Raymond James.

Ric Prentiss

Your line is now live in the narrowbody there. Any couple of cleaning up and a couple of questions on. First appreciate the calendar year calendar quarter guidance to say, okay, here's what we're going to do. Revenue in the year. That's up much appreciated the on a couple of questions I had is obviously you've got the new space assets. Does that hit cost of service depreciation in 4Q? And is that kind of the levels we should expect or was there something unusual in that going from kind of below $10 million, $13 million a quarter?

Peter Platzer

Yes. So I think one thing that you need to consider is every year. We do an assessment of our asset lives, and this is not different from any other year where we basically assess the asset lives that we have. One of the things that came out in Q4 was a new study on the solar cycle that no and NASA gave us, we were able to reassess the extent of the impact of that solar cycle in the useful life of our satellites, some of the older satellites, basically with the Orbit a little bit earlier than we had anticipated, and we had to reset the useful lives for some of the satellites. That's really all you're seeing in that have a reset.

Ric Prentiss

Okay. And what our guidance is that let me now look at the low end for a second here, as you know, that Sun has a cycle of roughly 11 years where its activity increases and decreases. And when the activity of the Sun increases, it kind of like expands the earth's atmosphere a little bit, and that is impacting all activities in space. And if you go to higher orbit, you also have certain events that cause a single event upsets and total ionizing does that are above safe and Alan bounce where things get a little bit more rough and the lower orbit, you have a certain spacecraft that just the Orbit a little bit quicker?

Peter Platzer

I think what is very, very beneficial for Spire is the great resilience of our constellation that is deployed as well as the constant increase in capabilities from a spacecraft today might do something that three years ago to 10 spacecraft. So I would expect that over time, the total number of spacecraft that deliver the data that we deliver today to customers and beyond is actually going to come down rather than go out simply because more and more assets that we are that we launch are more and more effective compared to the assets that are currently in orbit as it 10 times performance improvement. Every five year principle is so deeply embedded, not just in the industry but in particular, Inspire given at the full vertical integration company and what kind of useful life are you seeing across the different types of your satellites.
So any views at Zygo add layer on the it depends significantly on, you know, the timing of when you launch them and the size of the an asset and then whether they do or don't have propulsion and the type of mission that we have. So and on average, our own Constellation still has a four year average useful life, which is kind of what we expect and we said, you know, four to five years ago, we would have expected to see some of the larger assets tend to have a propulsion and they tend to last a bit longer. So for space services, we have some assets that could be in the air longer than the 5-year average of four to five year than we have on our assets.

Ric Prentiss

Okay. And you mentioned that some of your as you produce free cash flow, obviously that's still on track for summer positive free cash flow, invest back in growth with the likely sales product and marketing. If we look at fourth quarter on this, the sales and marketing was a little lighter and G&A was a little lighter that would we should expect going forward unless your radios are investing some of that free cash? Or how should we think about investing in sales and marketing versus what we've seen kind of as the year ended out yes, I would say that that is exactly what you should expect.

Peter Platzer

I mean, there are a couple of things that we certainly would want to invest in and our offering is heavily skewed towards the data provision, and we want to invest a bit more in analytics and predictive analytics. We also will expand kind of our product offerings and launch new products and you will see a bit more spend in marketing and sales feet on the street activities as we start to generate that free cash flow we described also the lifetime value to cost of acquiring a customer. And that's effectively where we think the biggest return would be for the shareholders at this point because we have very, very strong returns on those investments on the acquisition side.

Ric Prentiss

Okay. And then obviously the replenished CapEx appreciate and breaking that out $5 million to $7 million somewhere in 22 and 23. But obviously the space services can be kind of lumpy, lumpy and chunky for the guidance of positive free cash flow by summertime. Does that assume that some of those space services projects and work later in the year or because it does.

Peter Platzer

So they are they are basically. So the launch happens at one particular time. There's a significant amount of cost associated to the launch. If you go to the page where we tried to illustrate how the space services deal works from a cash inflow and outflow standpoint, you will see that all of that CapEx is pre-funded by the customer, their fees, it basically support that, but it's lumpy because you can see money that comes out, design manufacturing impact, you know, by that goes out when we pay for the launch, prepare for the launch. And that launch happens.
And then from there on the cash inflows are very material. So of course, from there P&L standpoint, the GAAP profit is fairly leveled because we start depreciating those assets that we own. But from a cash standpoint, yes, it can be somewhat lumpy depending on when the assets get launched effectively but generally speaking, you should expect us to have, as we said, $5 million to $7 million of replenishment CapEx of our own, and we'll go through the year.

Leo Basola

Right, and it's as we said, we just said we replenish satellites and that's for five years, four to five years. And as we put new satellites, I think in our in-orbit, they do way more than what the older ones did. So we don't need to replenish one for one. And then we continue to invest in our capabilities on the type of antennas that we have in our ground stations and the bands and the speed of the downlink and another that Jazz, I would say that for space services, it can be a bit lumpy, but generally speaking, you should think about this as when you see more CapEx, that's actually good. It means more growth. It means more revenue means more cash in the future.

Ric Prentiss

Great. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

Jeff Meuler

Good afternoon. So it was helpful commentary on the impact from the timing of I think the Miller contract as it relates to ARR. and I get that normalized for that there's good progression, but I think you would have still been below your guidance normalized for that contract timing, can you just comment on that dynamic as well as on the ARR solution, customer churn? And I know you are deemphasizing smaller customers that just looks like it stepped down more sequentially than I would have expected.

Peter Platzer

Yes. So you're right. And Jeff, thanks for your question. The the ARR guidance was around $130 million and we would have been at 120 with no contract. And the issue is really you can see it in the news, some of our orders on the federal side were actually delayed because we had the continuing resolution, giving some of the agencies a bit of pause on when to place those orders. And then on top of that we saw we delayed the launch from our constellation for North Star.
And of course, when that moves from December to January, there are domino effects on their side and the customer side on proving that these assets work and then they get additional funding for a subsequent order. So those are the kind of things that impacted our estimate and you can go line by line. And the reconciliation is actually a little bit of push out into Q1 or first half of 2024 on those orders.

Jeff Meuler

Got it. I was a general manager in Mexico, but that's the nature of ARR that a small move in timing can I cannot make a very different change in what you report. We have not seen any change in the demand and interest from a from the customer of our products is quite the opposite.

Peter Platzer

You know, we are scrambling everywhere. We can to have enough capacity inside the system to fulfill that demand, the customers are throwing our way.

Jeff Meuler

Got it. Yes, that makes sense. And I mean, I guess this is related to that. But as you hit free cash flow positive and start to invest more in sales, part marketing, et cetera. Just given that that's through the income statement and period, can you give us any sort of like framework around multiyear margin expansion. Like should we expect margins to be more why it is for a few years? Are you just signaling is that we should expect a more moderated pace of margin expansion. Just anything you can say to help us better model what you're trying to signal?

Peter Platzer

Yes, the trajectory that we continue to operate against and we have talked about, and we feel very positive and strong about it, about 30% growth on the top line, about 70% gross margin. On the gross margin side, free cash flow positive. I think that is a very, very good framework to think about how this will continue to shake out and Okay, thank you.

Operator

Erik Rasmussen, Stifel.

Erik Rasmussen

Yes, thanks. And congrats on the results in positive operating cash flow and get on. So just wanted to dig some follow on with that gross margin comment. So obviously, margin stepped down a little bit adjusted basis come from Q. three. And but if you are going to think about that 70% sort of target is that something that is more of a second half that, you know, as you sort of get to that free cash flow in and also sort of coincides with the top line sort of picking up as the space services piece starts to generate data and start to get revenue recognition from there?

Peter Platzer

Yes, I would say that you should expect margins to accrete as our revenue continues to grow as we have told and that effect the in effect, I would say that you should model margin expansion like we said, and our expected target is to go to 70% gross profit and that's what you should use in your models. I cannot tell you more than that. I think a lot of leverage on our model. So every time we get one of those space services yields on, right and they start generating data, they generate have very good margins, both on the cash and the gross profit side, every time we sell a new contract like you just saw with basically there maritime contract that we just announced, they come with a significant amount of leverage right so there's not incremental investment on our side on the gross profit side to achieve that revenue, our value generation and effectively that generates expansion.

Erik Rasmussen

Great. And then just the revenue guidance Q1. That's essentially flat at the midpoint from Q4. But it sounds like that's all again related to the space services and you expect then Q2 to be the step up and then step up throughout the rest of the year? Or is there any was there in this Q1 sort of a low point for the year? And what could sort of bring Q2 a little bit lighter than expected, you know, versus sort of your comments earlier Q2 being said?

Peter Platzer

Yes, I think I mentioned one of the things that needs to unlock for us to see that step-up is the continuing resolution. So as we do that, some of the agency demand that we have seen since Q4 and hasn't really materialized will materialize in Q1 and then deliver revenue for Q2 three and forward. I would say that after Q2, you should expect things to remain relatively flat or increasing slightly from Q2 to Q3 to Q4, but there isn't a material step-up between Q1 and Q2 as we deploy some of these services agreements.

Erik Rasmussen

That's helpful. Great. And then another, it seems like the space services business is picking up. Can you just maybe comment on how revenues have trended? What's the split in relation to your data services business? And then how do you see that sort of split progressing throughout 2024?

Peter Platzer

Yes, perfect. You know, as we talked about the four main business units that we have, right? So maritime, weather, aviation and space services, I would say that the three big ones and you can consider them kind of in a similar range are maritime weather and space services. The fourth one aviation is emerging. I would say that it's a fraction of the other three. So if you do the math, you can come up with.
Yes, you can you can do the simple math on three, three, 1033 is written, right? Something like that am but my my you asked how we're going to grow all of the business units are growing double digits. Aviation starts from a smaller base and they're going to grow high double digits as the yellow project and the technology that ensues from that project turns into a one or two or three or four commercial agreements when we're able to deploy real-time ADS-B data sets to our customers, right? So there's a significant amount of upside potential on the aviation and solutions.

Erik Rasmussen

Great. And then maybe just the last one last question. Just maybe can you talk about the transition of the large accounts? You mentioned last quarter, two of the big change in strategy, and we're still sort of early in that process, but any sort of observations you could share in terms of the momentum or potential upside you could see from that that change?

Peter Platzer

Yes, I think Eric, you can see it in our numbers, right? So we have already seen the result of our price actions and our conscious decision to not to pursue very, very small accounts they tend to be the least accretive and they don't continue to grow, they don't expand. So our strategy of land and expand is a very important factor of our growth equation and the smaller accounts tend to be small forever. So we want accounts that have an opportunity to really buy more of what we can offer and we want a larger share of wallet, but we also need a larger one. So our decision to really deemphasize that and reprice some of the smaller accounts, you can see already in some of the numbers that we have published for our ARR customer solutions that came down significantly. And that's because of our conscious approach to really not invest time and things that don't have the right payback.

Erik Rasmussen

Great. That's helpful. Appreciate. Thank you.

Operator

Suji Desilva, Roth MKM.

Suji Desilva

Hi, Peter. Hi, Leo. Congrats on the strong quarter. Um, on the on the North Star win and just the opportunity in national security, I understand in terms of targeting that the U.S. and global governments, how large is the incremental opportunity from beyond North Star and how soon can that come come online? Is it being delayed by some of the what's going on the government? Just curious on thoughts there.

Peter Platzer

Yes. So it's probably packing two questions into one. So I will I will try to answer both of them.Sequentially. North Star is really a customer who's I would say, our services managing. We are particularly proud of supporting and they are generating more space, situational awareness information with their assets than I think anyone else definitely commercially has been able to do and that data is of relevance indeed in the commercial sector.
But it is also, as you rightfully point out of great relevance on the defense side and overall and the conversation that we have of Planet Earth is often about wildfire and greenhouse gases from the conversations we have in space and generally equally intense and heated up about spaces, situational awareness and so I mean, I think they're quite excited for the growth of more SaaS business and its powerful thing of that of the business. As I think as Leo had mentioned, some of his remarks is that something that starts off, but no one, two, three, four spacecraft can then very, very rapidly grow to eight, 1632 a spacecraft and beyond. So the upsell opportunities to grow with our customers.
Business is very, very rapid as fire has the ability to enter that demand from our customers, which are trying to enter with the demand from their customers very, very rapidly. And certainly as demand for space situational awareness, who is doing what where and when and how is certainly increasing both on the civil side and the defense side. But overall, the defense side is definitely a market, which for I guess better or worse, is one where we see tremendous amount of opportunity for aspire to contribute to a more safe and balanced and transparent world as the intensity of conflict increases all across the world.
The ability to generate activity reports, the ability to geo locate assets that use radio frequency, which is just about any asset and on planet Earth is becoming more and more valuable. And it's certainly something that we are excited to be a provider of the transparency in supporting those that are trying to shine a light into those activities and be a contributor to a more safer world. And we certainly see a lot our future possibilities there for Spire as a company.

Suji Desilva

Okay. Thanks, Peter. And then my other question is on the maritime market and you've talked in your in your materials and just Mr. materials about it being lagging other on logistics and transportation industries and digitization. I'm curious how the partnership with signal ocean and the AIML. assets they have kind of maybe accelerates maritime into that better? Any color there would be helpful to understand as we go forward.

Peter Platzer

Yes, we believe that the maritime industry is just the cost of a new era of digitalization as more and more companies recognize the value of the data that I can enhance the operations and enhance what is happening on life on the oceans, which is driving over 90% of global trade. It is feeding the planet. It is doing, you know, of not just transportation. You're feeding our commodity markets. So it is an incredibly rich economy that some people say it's a $4 trillion, but it is driving an even much larger portion of the Global $100 trillion economy until the digitalization is really at the cost and supplier really sees itself as wanting to be the premier data provider in the universe and enabling other companies to grow based on that best-in-class data set and AI and machine learning now is a technology that really enhances the value of this data if you have the right AI and machine learning technologies and capabilities yourself.
And I think that is really where a single ocean shine in having some some exceptional capabilities there. And I believe that this partnership can enable other players to make the most of the combined value of more data that can be generating more insight through AI and machine learning. And so we're quite excited of being continuing to be a positive force for change towards this digitalization curve with our partnership with single ocean, but also a lot of other conversations that we have here in parallel for those partnerships to drive the digitalization of the maritime economy as one of the, if not the largest provider of clean valuable primary data of what is happening on the oceans every single day, every single minute.

Suji Desilva

Okay. Thanks, Peter. Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

Peter Platzer

Of course, thank you.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question and answer session, and that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.