Q2 2024 Invitation Homes Inc Earnings Call

Participants

Scott McLaughlin; Senior Vice President - Investor Relations Tax; Invitation Homes Inc

Dallas Tanner; Chief Executive Officer, Director; Invitation Homes Inc

Charles Young; President, Chief Operating Officer; Invitation Homes Inc

Jonathan Olsen; Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer; Invitation Homes Inc

Scott Eisen; Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer; Invitation Homes Inc

Michael Goldsmith; Analyst; UBS

Joshua Dennerlein; Analyst; Bank of America

Steve Sakwa; Analyst; Evercore ISI

Eric Wolfe; Analyst; Citigroup

Austin Wurschmidt; Analyst; KeyBanc Capital Markets

Brad Heffern; Analyst; RBC Capital Markets

Jamie Feldman; Analyst; Wells Fargo

Linda Tsai; Analyst; Jefferies

Jesse Lederman; Analyst; Zelman & Associates

Haendel St. Juste; Analyst; Mizuho Securities

Daniel Tricarico; Analyst; Scotiabank

Adam Kramer; Analyst; Morgan Stanley

Omotayo Okusanya; Analyst; Deutsche Bank

Anne Ken; Analyst; Green Street Advisors

Jason Sabshon; Analyst; KBW

Presentation

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Invitation Homes second-quarter 2024 earnings conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Scott McLaughlin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Scott McLaughlin

Good morning and welcome. I'm here today from Invitation Homes with Dallas Tanner, our Chief Executive Officer; Charles Young, President and Chief Operating Officer; Jon Olsen, Chief Financial Officer, and Scott Eisen, Chief Investment Officer.
Following our prepared remarks, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session with our covering sell-side analysts. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and then re-queue, if you'd like to ask a follow-up question.
During today's call, we may reference our second quarter 2024 earnings release and supplemental information. This document was issued yesterday after the market closed and is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.invh.com.
Certain statements we make during this call may include forward-looking statements relating to the future performance of our business, financial results, liquidity and capital resources and other non-historical statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially.
From those indicated, we describe some of these risks and uncertainties in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time, except to the extent otherwise required by law in Invitation Homes does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so.
We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during this call. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in yesterday's earnings release.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dallas Tanner, our Chief Executive Officer.

Dallas Tanner

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. We're a little over halfway through the year, and we're pleased with the results we've posted to date. Our residents continue to stay longer with same-store average length of stay over three years.
Our same-store portfolio remains effectively full with average occupancy of 97.5% during the second quarter, and we're pleased with our financial performance for the year to date through June with core FFO of 6.5%. It's an election year and housing is once again a focus on both sides of the aisle.
We encourage elected officials and policymakers to have a complete understanding of the facts so that effective and long lasting solutions to today's housing challenges can be enacted like many others. We follow the great work of John Burns and his team closely.
And therefore, I'd like to start off this morning by reviewing some of their latest housing data, there are roughly [133 million] households in the United States today, about 66% of those own their own home, a rate that is above the historical average during the last six years.
And the other 34% leased, something of those who lease roughly 64% rent an apartment while 31% leased to single-family homes, this means there are about $14 million single-family rental homes across the country with our wholly owned portfolio accounting for just 0.6% of total single-family rental supply.
Against that backdrop, I'd like to focus on three topics during my prepared remarks today. First, we believe there has never been a more compelling time to lease a home than today. We have spoken a lot about the traditional reasons that millions of Americans choose to lease.
These include flexibility and convenience as well as the desire for additional spaces, privacy and access to great schools. In addition to those, the past two years have opened an unprecedented affordability gap between homeownership and the cost of leasing.
According to the burns data. Two years ago, it was just under $700 a month more expensive to buy than to lease on average in our markets today, the cost of homeownership is nearly $1,200 a month, more expensive than it is to lease.
High cost of homeownership as many causes, chief among them, according to most economists, is the lack of new housing supply.
Add that to the steady increases in homeowners, insurance and property taxes among other cost of homeownership, and we believe the value proposition of leasing a home with us becomes even more attractive.
Various experts estimate our nation's housing supply shortage is in the millions of units. So if we are to address these affordability challenges, it's imperative that the homebuilders continue to build more homes to meet that growing demand. That leads to my second point, which is that we're proud to be part of the solution by partnering with homebuilders to build new communities.
We continue to expand our partnerships with some of the largest homebuilders in America as well as with regional homebuilders focused within our markets. Our partners understand that supported by our appetite for growth, they can build larger and more diverse communities and finish those communities faster than they otherwise might have alone more homes delivered faster is a win for everyone, including the 133 million households in America who are looking to lease or buy their next home.
Our current pipeline includes nearly 27 hundred new homes that we plan to make available for lease over the next few years. In addition to around the 2000 homes that we've already added since 2021. In total, that's nearly 5,000 newly constructed homes built or in our pipeline since we launched our build-to-rent efforts just three years ago.
Furthermore, our attractive returns are leading the industry with current opportunities being underwritten at a 6% or better yield on cost, while mitigating most of the risks and cost of on-balance sheet development.
My third and final point is that doing right by our residents means doing right by all of our stakeholders. We pioneered our professional service standard several years ago as a way to differentiate the worry-free lifestyle that we provide compared to the small landlords who make up the vast majority of this industry.
In particular, we believe our 24/7 genuine care service and ProCare offerings remain unrivalled. To highlight this point through June year to date, our market teams turned and released more than 11,500 homes to new residents, nearly all of whom received a pre move-in orientation as well as a 45 day post move-in visit. Both of these brand exclusive customer touch points are performed in person with the resident by our associates.
We believe this level of service is feasible in part to our size and our scale and that our resident centric approach helps drive our strong occupancy, customer retention and overall resident satisfaction. It's also why some of the largest and most respected portfolio owners have chosen recently, our growing third party management business to care for their homes and for their residents. We also leverage the size and the scale for the greater good of our communities.
I'll call out two more recent examples. First is our support of the American Red Cross and more specifically, their quote sound the alarm home fire and safety program. Our sponsorship helps the Red Cross install free smoke alarms and educate families on fire escape plans and home fire safety.
Secondly, we continue to support local development and improvement of outdoor community spaces through our green spaces programming.
This past spring, we funded two new grants, the patch community Garden in Dania Beach, Florida, and a wellspring women's center in Sacramento, California as a long-term neighbor and a supporter of our communities. We take great pride in empowering our local associates to make an impact where they live and where they work.
To wrap up, I'd like to thank our residents for their trust and their loyalty and thank all of our associates who work hard every day to earn that trust. We proudly stand behind the work that our company and our associates are doing to ensure our residents have a great experience with us, and we're honoured to be a part of the solution to today's housing challenges while just a fraction of 1% of the 14 million Americans who lease a home choose to do so with us, we believe we remain the premier choice for individuals and families can thrive.
I'll now pass the call on to Charles Young, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

Charles Young

Thank you, Dallas. I'll begin by thanking our associates for another strong quarter. This has been the busiest time of the year for us, particularly for leasing and maintenance teams. And I'm proud of the work they have done to provide exceptional service to our residents, but now walk you through our same-store operating results for the second quarter, same-store NOI grew 3.8% year over year, led by an increase in same-store core revenues of 4.8%, an increase of same-store core expense of 7.1%.
I'll discuss each of these a little further, starting with the 4.8% growth in core revenues was primarily driven by a 4.2% increase in average monthly rent, a 9.6% increase in other income and a 50 basis points year-over-year improvement in bad debt.
A second quarter marks the fifth quarter in a row of sequential improvement in our same-store bad debt, and we're pleased to see progress continuing across our markets.
Next, I'll share more detail on a second quarter core expense growth of 7.1%. This was primarily due to a 10.3% increase in property tax expense, which Jon will discuss in more detail during his remarks as well as a significant year-over-year increase in repairs and maintenance expense due in part to weather conditions.
These increases were partially offset by lower turnover, which drove a 10.8% decrease in turnover expense, along with reductions in all of our other controllable expense line items, reflecting the hard work of our teams to control what we can control I mentioned that weather impacted our R&M OpEx during the second quarter.
It also had an outsized impact on R&M CapEx as well, as you probably heard, and many of you felt the summer season arrived early and hotter in most of our markets this year compared to last, we saw that come through during the second quarter with higher HVAC spend that impacted both R&M OpEx and R&M CapEx.
Next, I'll review our same-store leasing results for the second quarter year-over-year renewal rent growth, which represents about three-quarters of our business, increased 5.6%, while new lease rates grew 3.6% year over year.
Together this from blended rent growth to 5% year over year, which represents a healthy return to our historical pre-pandemic norm for the second quarter, was notably different now compared to the pre-pandemic period as our same-store occupancy, which averaged 97.5% in the second quarter of 2024 or approximately 140 basis points higher than our three year historical average for the second quarter prior to 2020.
Looking ahead, as the summer leasing season comes to a close. We expect to see a normal degree of seasonality returned to our portfolio. While we still have a week remaining here in July, we anticipate that new lease rate growth likely peaked in May and June as it typically does.
And that occupancy this month and next will reflect the usual summer move outs and a normal seasonal curve. That being said, we expect to continue to lean in on occupancy, particularly as we move deeper into the second half of the year as occupancy is traditionally our most impactful core revenue growth driver.
Once again, I'm really proud of our teams for the results they've delivered. We've asked a lot of them this year as we've grown our third party management business, elevated our high standards of genuine care and made additional improvements to the resident experience and their performance has been outstanding. I'm especially grateful for their dedication to living our core values and doing what's right for our customers.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jon Olson, our Chief Financial Officer.

Jonathan Olsen

Thanks, Charles. I'll begin by providing an update on our investment grade rated balance sheet and the capital markets. At June 30, we had approximately $1.7 billion in available liquidity through a combination of unrestricted cash and undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facility.
Unsecured debt comprised over three quarters of our total indebtedness, and our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 5.3 times at June 30, virtually all of our debt was fixed rate or swapped to fixed rate, and nearly 84% of our wholly owned homes were unencumbered at the end of the second quarter.
As we previously announced on our last earnings call in April, Moody's upgraded our issuer and issued level credit ratings to BAA2 from B AA3 with a stable outlook.
As we've discussed before, we have no debt reaching final maturity until 2026 when IH 2018-4 securitization with a current balance of approximately $634 million reaches final maturity, as does our year credit facility, which is comprised of a $2.5 billion term loan, along with an undrawn $1 billion revolver. While we have plenty of time remaining prior to 2026, we anticipate we'll address these maturities later this year.
This is consistent with our historically proactive approach to managing our balance sheet and is also in consideration of various swap instruments that mature later this year and next. Specifically, we expect to repay the IH 2018-4 securitization later this year as planned with cash that we had earmarked from our August 2023 bond issuance.
We are also in discussions with our bank group regarding a recast of our five-year credit facility, and we expect to be in a position to share further details on both prior to our next earnings.
Next, I'll review our second quarter and year-to-date financial results for the second quarter, core FFO increased 7.3% to $0.47 per share, while AFFO increased 4.1% to $0.4 per share. Year to date, core FFO increased 6.5% to $0.94 per share, and AFFO increased 5.4% to $0.81 per share.
These year-to-date results marked a solid finish to the first half of the year, which included growing contributions from our third party management business, a better than originally expected insurance renewal had some favorable early outcomes on property taxes in a few of our smaller tax markets.
As outlined in last night's earnings release, we have maintained the midpoint of our full year same-store NOI growth guidance at 4.5% while moving the midpoint of our same-store revenue growth guidance down by 12.5 basis points to 4.875% and improving the midpoint of our same-store expense growth guidance by 50 basis points to 5.75%.
In addition, we have raised the midpoint of our full year core FFO guidance by a penny to $1.87 per share. The full details of our updated guidance are included in last night's earnings release.
One area of our guidance where we think continued caution remains appropriate is property tax expense. As you know, property taxes represent our largest same-store expense line item by far with over half of the total being impacted by two states, Florida and Georgia.
Georgia has provided us with limited information to date on assessed values, while millage rates and final tax bills from both states aren't expected for a few more months. As we've previously discussed, we expect same-store property tax expense to remain elevated in the third quarter due to the under accrual in the first three quarters of last year prior to a partial offset in the fourth quarter of this year.
Our revised expectation for year-over-year property tax growth is 8% to 9.5%. As I mentioned earlier, we've received some favorable feedback from some of our smaller tax jurisdictions. And in addition, some early signs from Georgia that are trending positively, but we believe it is prudent to remain cautious until better clarity exists later this year.
In closing, we're pleased with what we've accomplished to date and are excited to maintain our momentum in the second half of the year. We remain committed to driving sustainable growth, serving as the premier choice in home leasing and continuing to create long-term value for our stockholders.
That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for question.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

Perfect. Thank you. We will now begin our question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
Michael Goldsmith, UBS. Please go ahead.

Michael Goldsmith

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question, I believe in the prepared remarks, Charles, you said that you were leaning in on occupancy and should we interpret that as you're being incrementally cautious on occupancy? Is that driving the reduction of the high end of the same-store revenue guidance? And then along those lines, are you seeing or expecting potentially more move-outs from tenants looking to purchase?

Charles Young

Yeah, this is Charles, great questions. If we kind of step back where we are looking at the quarter, Q2 was strong overall, 97.5% occupancy kind of reflects your question that we've been able to sustain occupancy throughout the year. You saw that early in the year as we were pushing and as we got to occupancy, our blended rent growth rose or every month for the last five months.
So Q2 was strong overall. What we did see, though, was a little bit of moderation in a few markets that have been high flyers for us for the last several years in Phoenix, Tampa, little bit Orlando and Jacksonville.
And as we saw that, I think that's what's reflecting in some of the guide that you're seeing in those that kind of normal moderation is also part of seasonality that's coming. So as we get into the summer here, you'll start to see that normal seasonality that happens where you'll get occupancy come down a little bit and then pop back up later in the year.
And so as I talk about that, it's around trying to minimize how far it goes down and be ready for it to pop back up.
In terms of the renewal side, look, there's a little bit more lost less lease in the summer and we have more going into the fall and we went out the mid-sixes for the summer, and that's where you're seeing some of that moderation show up. But as you look forward into September and specifically October, we get back over seven in our Ask. And so we expect that the renewals will come back up and we'll get our occupancy back up, the business remains really strong or healthy overall, you look at the historical numbers, 97.5% at this time of year with the five blend is as strong as it had ever been outside of a pandemic season. So I'll turn it over to Jon to talk a little bit more about guidance.

Jonathan Olsen

Yeah, thanks, Charles. But we took what we thought was a conservative approach and reassessing guidance this quarter. In doing that, we fine tune both our revenue and expense guidance, and we may have tried to put too fine a point on it, particularly with regard to the revenue revision, ultimately, that was based on our desire to be as transparent as possible about what we're seeing in a couple of spots.
So specifically, as Charles alluded to, Phoenix, Central Florida, where we've seen some moderation began around May and continued into June. So in particular, it seems as though there's a little bit of price fatigue setting in there and some supply sensitivities following what's been a fantastic run in those markets.
We don't think there's anything to be alarmed about the markets are still quite healthy, but maybe just not quite as strong as we had expected at the beginning of the year. All that said, the vast majority of our portfolio is firing on all cylinders in particular, I'd call out Chicago, Southern California, Seattle.
All of those had new lease rate growth above 5% in the second quarter. And on the renewal side, South Florida saw a 9.5% renewal growth. Atlanta was at 6.3% and over half of our other markets were in the fives. So we feel really good about that. I think it's also worth noting that we do believe there's still some conservatism baked into the expense guide.
In particular, we've talked about being cautious with respect to Florida and Georgia taxes, and we'll know a lot more there in the next few months.
So long story short, we're not seeing any kind of fundamental shift in the business, but we probably tried to be a bit too surgical in the revised revenue growth and we'll learn that.

Operator

All right. Thank you.
Joshua Dennerlein, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Joshua Dennerlein

Hey, guys. On maybe just to follow up on some of the comments there. Appreciate the color on Phoenix and Jacksonville. I mean, there's our expertise sitting in there. Is there any kind of I think Phoenix has been a high supply market or SFR just building in general. Is there any kind of like dynamic that's playing out from the supply front? Or is it just kind of like pricing has run and it's kind of at the upper limits of where people can afford it relative to incomes in those markets.

Charles Young

Yeah, great question. Look, I think you hit on it in a few of these markets, specifically Phoenix. And we mentioned this in Vegas before there is some build to rent coming on, which create some short term temporary supply shocks. And you couple that with the fatigue, I think that's what we're seeing here in Florida as well Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, these are these are markets where there's a lot of action happening on the build the rent side and you couple that with the kind of moderation, seasonality, a little bit of fatigue. We'll work through it. We've done that and these kind of ins and outs.
And but we wanted to make sure that we were open and transparent about what we're seeing. So I think it's a little bit of both of that. And then as Jon mentioned, there's other markets that are really still humming along, not as much of that kind of fatigue. I think that's what happened in Chicago. Chicago never really had that run and it's starting to catch up now.
And then you also couple that with still pretty low on move out to purchase a home. But you can look across the markets and see that there's a little bit more inventory starting to come in some of the markets, and I think it creates a little bit more optionality again, where given the supply demand of single-family in this country long term, we're really great shape. You just get some of these kind of supply and fatigue items to market by market, but that's why we're in multiple markets.

Operator

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Steve Sakwa

Yeah, thanks. I just wanted to maybe circle up with Dallas or Scott, just on the capital deployment. Kind of what are your expectations going into the back half of the year. And where are you seeing more opportunities? And I know you talked about that 6% yield. How do you think that yield might trend kind of looking forward over the next 12 months.

Dallas Tanner

Hi, Steve. Dallas, I'll start and then I'll hand it to Scott and can add maybe a little bit more detail. Real-time look we feel really good about our sort of guidance in terms of being in line with what we laid out at the beginning year, both from an acquisitions perspective and what we were generally seeing from a yield on cost point as well.
I would say and Scott can confirm this that, you know, the majority of our relationships are expanding. We're seeing product in a lot of new areas. What's been sort of interesting has been maybe the regional operator wanting to lean in a little bit harder to figure out. There's ways to work together feels like yield on costs kind of on our numbers are in the six pluses, and we're looking at some creative ways to maybe make that better over time.
But it's, we're certainly having more deal flow than I'd say we've seen even in the last couple of years. Good opportunities.

Scott Eisen

And looks deep, but it's a good question. Thank you. We continue the same strategy that we started when I came on board about a year ago, which is to expand our relationships with both the national builders and regional builders. You know, they have been very open with us on their pipelines. We're obviously picking and choosing the locations and the communities that make the most sense for us.
We're trying to find communities that are both proximate to where we have existing operations and existing homes and also communities that we think have the best in build demand.
As you know, look, we continue to underwrite new homes and communities every day in our dialogue with the builders, we probably got another 1,000 plus homes in the backlog that we're trying to see whether they make sense for us and whether we can come close to getting those under contract or not. And we're looking within the same markets that are the age target markets, albeit maybe with also trying to see if we can do more in Nashville, in particular, given the new presence we have there with a third party management contracts as far as yields and pricing, I'd say that they are consistent with sort of what the guidance is.
We've been given to the street for the last six months on look there, there were some markets where it was going to be a little lower like a market like Denver where you know, it's a higher price point in some markets where it's going to be a little higher on the cap rate, and we're trying to get to the right blend across the company.
But we continue to be pleased with the supply and dialogue we have with the builders. And again, it's we're picking and choosing what we like, not everything we see from them makes sense. We pick the locations we like or do we do a very detailed analysis on the demographics on the location on the performance of our assets, we underwrite where competitive supplies, et cetera.
We're trying to make the right decisions that are consistent with our operating strategy. But I'd say that the dialogue continues to be strong and significant, and we're trying to add more builders to our stable of partners every day.

Operator

Eric Wolfe, Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Eric Wolfe

Hi, thanks. I think [nearly] renewals were looking pretty strong June and similar to May. So I was just curious whether you saw any increased pushback from tenants in June such that the take rate was maybe a little bit lower than normal versus where you're sending things out? And if you could also just share where you're achieving renewals for July and August versus where you're sending them? I think that would be a helpful context as well. Thanks

Charles Young

Yeah, I'll start with the July and August we're not done. So we're not going to share the numbers in terms of the July numbers. But going back to your original question, look, we're in a high fives for all five months of started the year 5.8, 5.7, 5.9 April actually came in at 6.0 in May was 5.9. While we did see and this is part of what we're talking about here. There was a little bit of moderation in June. We ended up a typo for a blend to 4.7.
And so that's where that we just got cautious and we looked across the markets and there were a few markets that on that, as we talked about Phoenix in Central Florida, that kind of dragged down a little bit. We do have some markets that are still high flying. We have, you know, South Florida, as John mentioned, is in the nines and other markets are still there.
So I think there's a couple of things that's not always pushback. What we I think we mentioned this. It may read as well. There's a bit of gain or loss to lease in the summer because we've been pushing that time of year for years. And so as that portfolio turns over at that time of year, there's just not as much there. And as we're trying to stay focused on occupancy, we don't want to lean in too far. And but that loss-to-lease gets wider as we get into the end of the year.
So you're going to see renewals start to come back up. And that's reflected in kind of what we went out for August in the mid-sixes for renewal last September, high sixes in October, actually above seven. And so you put all that together our start, you'll start to see the renewals come back. And I think it's really more driven by loss to lease and seasonality of move-out season.
And again, we're still going through some of the lease compliance cleanup and we're getting a little bit more move outs now than we did in historical years, and we're trying to make sure we stay full. And so it's a balance as we optimize the revenue.

Operator

Austin Wurschmidt , KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Austin Wurschmidt

Hi, good morning, everybody. I guess I'm still just trying to reconcile a few things a little bit of the why and the fact that turnover was down this quarter occupancy was stable throughout the quarter. So what was it that you saw happening from a demand or notice to move out perspective that led you to dial back the renewal rate growth, 75 basis points to 100 basis points in June relative to the increases achieved in April and May. And I'm also curious, do you think that the onboarding and so our pricing strategy of the third-party management platform had any impact on the in-place portfolio? Thanks.

Charles Young

It's Charles again. I'll take the last part again on. There's really third parties had no impact here. This is really a kind of market situation. What we saw at (Inaudible) May into June. We're still going strong. We saw some moderation in the second half of June and as we looked at July, that seasonality started to show we typically peak on blend in June, May and July, August.
You get the moderation that comes with the seasonality as people move out and you couple that with the markets and to the earlier question is a little bit more negotiation and we want to stay full best. We can we are going to come down on occupancy for a few months and then pop back up.
And as we do that, that's the balance that we saw just seeing that in these few markets and at this time of year showed up a little earlier than we expected, and we wanted to make sure that we're being transparent on what we see.

Operator

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Brad Heffern

Yeah, thanks. I'm sure you're limited on what you can say, but can you give whatever color you can on this FTC inquiry? And then is this accrual I guess, a placeholder, is this close to what you think the real liability might be?

Dallas Tanner

Thanks. This is Dallas. You hit it. I mean, we can't say much because it's a pending legal matter. As we disclosed in the summer of '21, we received an inquiry from the FTC request information about how we conduct our business generally and specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since then, we have fully cooperated with the FTC. And as we've previously disclosed during the first quarter that we've begun some preliminary discussions with them about a potential resolution.
Those discussions has continued since that time they've been productive. We certainly appreciate the dialogue with them today. And as you know, GAAP requires the company to accrue for contingent liabilities when certain amounts our circumstances have been met and including consideration of a settlement offer that could be made in good faith, the amount we were accrued as of the end of June reflects amount that the company would consider paying to resolve the matter without any admission of liability and to avoid the inconvenience and expense of that continuing.
And we do think a potential resolution of the matter will have a limit of the matter will have no material ongoing impact on our business. And that being said, presently we can't say how it will proceed going forward or how it could ultimately be resolved.

Operator

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Jamie Feldman

Great. Thank you. Can you talk about the earnings impact from the incremental third party homes added in in the quarter and what's in your guidance for the rest of the year?

Jonathan Olsen

Sure. Thanks. So recall at the outset of the year, when we introduced guidance, we thought that there were about two pennies of incremental FFO contribution from the third party business. The increase to the core FFO guide at the midpoint is sort of reflective of finding that there's a little bit more in it with the upcoming Upward America onboarding a couple of other smaller things, but that's really what drove the midpoint increase on core FFO.

Operator

Linda Tsai, Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Linda Tsai

Hi, with average stay at three years. Do you think this is the peak given interest rates coming down? Or would you expect this to go higher by next year given the John Burns comment about it being $1,200 more?

Dallas Tanner

It's a great question. This is Dallas. Look, I think we've seen sequentially every quarter, our average length of stay continue to grow. And if you look at how the business was started, we started in the West Coast markets early on in 2012. Our West Coast markets are getting close to some markets outside of California. Almost four years, California as well into almost a 5th year of average length of stay.
I wouldn't expect this to be a peak at all. As you look at the housing call it supply demand imbalances. We would expect that as we bring on additional services as we create the flexibility and efficiency of the scale, the platform that this leasing lifestyle outside of a cost differential is appealing to the masses in much greater scale.
And I would just furthermore add that while this may be a tipping point or close to in terms of the bid-ask spread between ownership and cost of lease. We've operated in an environment where that differential was much less than it is today and continue to see that acceleration.
So I think we think now it's sort of a minimum probably with the new customer that they're going to stay with us three years and well until fourth or fifth.

Operator

Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Dallas Tanner

Hi. Thanks for the time. Just a question. You mentioned higher R&M cost both on the OpEx and CapEx line. I'm just curious if you can give more details around that and how maybe your CapEx budget has changed? I noticed the AFFO or FAD guidance didn't change despite the change in core FFO. So if you could remind us of what we should be assuming for CapEx, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Charles Young

Thank you. I'll start this is Charles, and I'll give it to Jon. Look, I as I mentioned, we saw the weather really heat up earlier than is typically seen for us. And specifically relative to last year, the curve looks the same in terms of it gets hot in your markets around the start of the summer, but it started about a month early and the curve of just how we budgeted some come through in the R&M line on both the OpEx and CapEx.
When you're dealing with HVACs, you can get into a little higher cost around repair and replacement and doing what's right by the resident mixture of the House has cooled. So it's really just happening earlier and in many markets across the portfolio from Florida to Phoenix, Texas, where we are today. It just got hotter earlier, and that's the impact there.
I'll let Jon talk about how it impacts the guidance.

Jonathan Olsen

Thanks, Charles. Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. So if you look at the revision to the core FFO guide and the fact that we did not move AFFO, it's sort of reflective of the fact that with that with the peak temperatures of summer kicking in a little bit earlier, CapEx has been running hot. So in terms of the year over year increases there.
They're sizable on both the expense and capital side. And so given where we are relative to where we expected to be, we just weren't in a position yet to.
So to make a move on the FFO front, the teams are very focused on cost controls. Typically what we see is when each back season starts is you see a big pickup in work order volume as people start turning those systems on and discovering what sort of repairs or other maintenance might be required.
And then once we've gotten through that you see the volume of work order sort of dissipate on the back end. The shape of that curve this year looks really familiar and very comparable to last year. It's been just shifted forward a little bit. So we're going to continue to watch that with respect to CapEx and the AFFO guide and more to come on that probably next quarter.

Operator

Jesse Lederman, Zelman & Associates. Please go ahead.

Jesse Lederman

Nice job in the quarter and thanks for taking my question. A quick one on acquisition guidance. So if I take your current spending year to date and incorporate roughly 700 homes, you expect to be delivered from homebuilders in the second half of the year and normalize for a consistent number of existing homes that you've acquired the last couple of quarters, looks like you'd still need to purchase about 800 homes beyond that to get to the midpoint of the $800 million.
So just wanted to ask currently, what do you view as the most likely source of these additional homes between additional deliveries from homebuilders, the existing home market, which seems to me they've loosened up or a portfolio acquisition? Thanks

Scott Eisen

Yeah, great question. This is Scott, thanks. In terms of our acquisition backlog and where we're focused, we continue to negotiate directly with the national and regional builders on buying the partial and full communities from them.
So part of the incremental acquisitions that we would expect to get under contract between now and year end is just continuing buying directly from the homebuilders. We are also looking at some full community acquisitions. There are sponsors out there that have developed four communities and are ready to monetize and exit them that are either partially or fully stabilized.
And there are we obviously look at various of these communities when they come to market and there are a few of them out there that we're taking a hard look at. And to the extent we could find something that makes sense for us and is at the right yield, we could supplement buying directly from the homebuilders by buying some four communities from some specific [BTR] developers.

Operator

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Haendel St. Juste

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Charles, I want to go back to something you mentioned earlier about the expectation for renewal pricing to pick up into the fourth quarter. Obviously, we're going through a bit of seasonality here, but my expectation for that to rebound, I'm just looking back the last couple of years, has it really been the case. I know COVID, obviously the last couple years have impacted numbers. But even before COVID, I guess I'm curious your thoughts are what gives you the confidence that you will see that that recovery indeed into the fourth quarter? Thank you.

Charles Young

Thanks, Haendal. Yeah, I think you called it out. You know, coming off of COVID, there was no seasonality and the numbers the supply demand what was going on with lease compliance and all that the renewals were just high for a few years and you didn't get that kind of up and down that we're talking or seeing in the normal seasonal curve that we're seeing this year. There's just not as much loss to lease in the summer because historically that portfolio, we've a long life length of stay and we renew and we've been pushing and there's just not as much to capture and you balance that with trying to stay occupied on you don't see it. But what we do see is that you can look at the numbers.
There's a lot more loss to lease as we go into the fall. And so we're back to that normal seasonal curve. And we're past that the pandemic period that expect and already starting to see with the [ask] of October in the sevens coming up from the mid sixes that we're going to start to see that. So time will tell what it looks like, but this is kind of the normal historical that we've seen and it's math in terms of the loss to lease and what we see in the portfolio.

Operator

Daniel Tricarico, Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Daniel Tricarico

Thanks, Charles or Jon. Could you put some numbers around the change in growth expectations for those Florida, Phoenix and Las Vegas markets this year?

Charles Young

I don't know if we typically give specific by market, I'm speaking Jon here a little bit. We're typically or kind of give a what we think our blend will be for the year. And we had, I personally had expectations watching how Florida had performed late last year and early this year that we might keep some of that momentum going.
You know, the reality is, as we talked about just a bit of moderation return to seasonality, and it happened a little earlier than we expected. And so I think that's what's reflecting in our adjustment to the guide and just being thoughtful around what we're seeing in those markets.
Again, a little bit more negotiation, a little bit a short term supply based on build to rent. Same thing with Phoenix. We've seen that for a little while is starting to come back. But you know, this is some of the things that you see on markets that have been flying high for a while. This a little bit of moderation here and we'll get back to kind of equilibrium over time.

Jonathan Olsen

Yeah, I think the only thing I would add to that is to reiterate that we probably tried to get a little bit to surgical in terms of referencing what we saw in Phoenix and some of the non-Florida markets other than South Florida. But I think the reality is we felt comfortable that overall growth remains robust. We feel really comfortable with where the business is.
As Charles mentioned, we see that loss-to-lease opens back up for us here in the next couple of months. But we want to be really thoughtful about striking a balance between rate and occupancy because as Charles said, occupancy is much more impactful and ultimately, our guide is to core revenue growth, and that is what we want to optimize and the levers we have to pull are the trade-off between rate and occupancy.

Operator

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Adam Kramer

Hi guys. Just on the property taxes, I'm wondering which kind of the markets that came in below expectations and you mentioned some of the kind of Northern Florida, Georgia markets. Just wondering if you could call out the specific market that came in below expectations?

Jonathan Olsen

Yeah, sure. A great question, Adam. In Washington State and Minnesota. We had good guys in the first quarter. So the revision to the top end of that property tax guidance range is entirely attributable to actual good guys that we recorded in the first half.
So just to be crystal clear, our underlying assumptions for property tax expense growth outside of those markets are unchanged, right? So we haven't we haven't touched up our Florida or Georgia assumptions. As I've referenced in my prepared remarks, the Georgia values that we are getting back and have gotten back. I have shown that assessed values are coming in below what we've incorporated in our assumptions.
Obviously, we don't have millage rates or final tax bills yet. So that's not something that we're going to take to the bank. But when I said that there were some signs that we thought supported cautious optimism. That's what they are.

Operator

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Omotayo Okusanya

Hi, good morning. With some of the incremental supply you're highlighting in markets like Florida. Could you just talk a little bit about again, who's doing that building what how much of it is, how much is actually coming online and how quickly one can expect that to be absorbed in these markets?

Dallas Tanner

Yeah, I think that I can't give you exactly a Florida specific answer on absorption and new home starts in a succinct answer, but I think Scott and I would both agree, we're out in the market. We are seeing both build-to-rent operators and regional. And I'd even add national homebuilders that are much more willing to deal on pending pipeline.
And some of that comes from a natural slowdown of the homebuyers with mortgage rates is in the sevens or low sevens. And also there are some BTR operators that our we've seen it, Scott, even some of our conversations where they're thinking about where they are kind of midway through a project and or call entitlements delivery and looked at rethinking things.
And so there's definitely some new supply. We've been able to sort of cherry-pick. It's hard to tell you how much of that is absorption. But like the [reacto] or to re-emphasize what Charles and Jon, you've certainly seen some supply sensitivity in Phoenix Tampa and Orlando, some of that's driven by average listings, some of that's driven by new product coming in the marketplace.

Operator

[Anne Ken, Green Street]. Please go ahead.

Anne Ken

Hi, good morning. Thanks for your time. Do you have any thoughts on whether the lower turnover recently is signifying a larger trend going forward? And if so, how should we look at quantifying the impact to OpEx from the lower churn?

Charles Young

I can start on the on the turn on kind of trends here. If I prior to last year, as we were really going through the bad debt lease compliance cleanup, we'd been lowering its turnover year over year. It got kind of abnormally low during the pandemic, just given the dynamics, but last year went up. And a lot of that was as we were trying to work through the lease compliance. We're still working through some of that, especially in some of our bigger markets, Atlanta.
So [Coles] made some good moves. We're still dealing with Carolina Chicago a bit on. And so from a historical perspective, it's still a little higher than it might have been. But relative to last year where we especially in the second half of the year, we talked about why we pushed so hard on occupancy because we had a big turnover spike as we were cleaning up there.
And so what you're seeing this year is kind of returning back to that kind of normal trend as we work through a little bit of that cleanup, how it balances out. We still have some cleanup in markets like Atlanta and a few others. So time will tell. But so far, it's trended nicely. And we talked a little bit here about the R&M expense, again driven by weather.
But as you look at our turn, costs in other parts also come in really well, and that's mostly because we are starting to see that trend down. Hard to predict kind of where predict where it ends up, but I like our trend and being in that low-20s is a really healthy place. And that's part of what's driving our occupancy as well as coupling it with good days to be resident.
The teams are really executing well. So the things that we're controlling that we can't control proud of the teams and how they're behaving.
You want to add something, Jon?

Jonathan Olsen

No, I think the only observation I would share. And I think it's a good question is that the lease compliance move outs that we continue to see well, while we're seeing some moderation in the quantum of those, it's still a pretty good number.
So about 17.5% of move outs in the second quarter were for sort of lease compliance backlog clean up that was down about 200 basis points from the first quarter, and it's about 100 basis points lower than what our average has been over the last five.
So we're seeing very reasonable turnover, inclusive of some ongoing clean-up of the COVID hangover. And I would say the turn costs being down year over year, taking into consideration that we did have still a relatively sizable number of those lease compliance move outs and the fact that those are typically in the nearby of 50% more costly than a standard term, we put it all together, we feel quite good about controlling the things that are within our control, as Charles said.

Operator

Jade Rahmani from KBW. Please go ahead.

Jason Sabshon

This is Jason Sabshon on for Jade. My question is how much do rates need to come down through acquisitions certainly accelerate.

Scott Eisen

I think from our peak, this is Scott. Thanks a great question. I think from our perspective, look, we have a certain hurdle rate that we set for our acquisitions and what we're trying to achieve. And as we've said to the market we're in the market today, achieving, especially with our builder deals, deals in the 6%-plus range as markets move and as interest rates move, we will evaluate what we think our cost of capital is and what we think we're prepared to pay for transactions in the market.
It's hard for me to sit here and tell you exactly how much we're going to move our acquisition cap rates for every basis point move in treasuries. But obviously, we look at our weighted average cost of capital. We look at where we see opportunity in the market, whether it's buying from builders, buying portfolios or buying stabilized assets.
And we will pivot accordingly as the market moves. But I can't sit here and tell you prescriptively exactly how much, you know, cap rates are going to move based upon interest rates.

Operator

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Jamie Feldman

Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to clarify because Jon, you've now said a couple of times you think you may have taken two surgical view of this in your revised guidance or for two surgical, it cuts. Are you suggesting maybe you're better off not revising guidance? I just had a couple of people putting me on this, and I just wanted to me think everyone's to understand exactly what you mean by that. I think you said to surgical and you'll have to own it.

Jonathan Olsen

Yeah. Well, I think that we were a bit surprised by the by the reaction, candidly, and I think we were maybe too mechanical in how we approach the puts and takes that we saw based on what we learned in the first half of the year. And so I think it's a little bit of a [mea culpa] because we weren't trying to launch 1,000 ships and give people the sense that we see underlying weakness in our business because we don't what we were trying to do is sort of acknowledge that, hey, we sort of alluded to this at Mary over the course of the balance of June, we saw that that was a trend that was continuing and that was moderation in certain of the markets that Charles referenced based on maybe a little bit of price fatigue on the part of the customer and in the interest of trying to be transparent, that was what was reflected in the guide.

Operator

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Omotayo Okusanya

Hi, thanks for having me back on, the pipeline you talked about the 2,700 homes, which I think includes the 1,000 homes you just announced, how quickly do you expect that to be delivered?

Scott Eisen

Great question. Thank you. The way that these builder pipelines work is when we get something under contract, let's say we're buying 150 homes in a community from a builder. The builders deliver those homes to us, let's say, 10 homes a month within any given community.
So when we talk about our backlog, we're obviously giving visibility to a pipeline that frankly could get delayed is getting delivered over the next, you know, eight quarters or so. And so in our in our supplemental, we obviously disclose that we have a backlog here of, call it, 27,00 homes in the pipeline. We've been very specific that we expect 691 of those homes to be delivered in the second half of this year.
And then the balance is what gets delivered over time. But again, each time we get a community under contract, there is a forward delivery schedule and the builders on average tend to deliver somewhere between eight and 10 homes a month.
And so that's why when you look at that pipeline, that's why you see a certain percentage of it is second half and a certain percentage of it is in 2015. So we don't get 150 homes delivered was all at once, but it gets spread over time. And obviously, that, you know, from a leasing perspective also makes it a little more efficient for us.
So instead of having a community that's, you know, 100% vacant for 150 homes, we get 10 homes a month. And so we can sort of balance our leasing of those homes as they get delivered. And so that's the right way to think about that pipeline. And that's why we have that disclosure in our supplemental the way we do.

Operator

Eric Wolfe, Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Eric Wolfe

Hi, thanks, apologies, the line dropped out for a second. So if you've already answered this. My apologies. But I was just curious, what's sort of embedded in your guide for the back half of the year for the blended spread? And you did, I think 4.7% in the first half. So I was just curious what would be the guide for the second half of the year and sort of if you could give a little bit of building blocks to how you're going to get there?

Jonathan Olsen

It's a good question, Eric. I mean, recall that our guidance is around core revenue growth, but we did articulate that we thought the blended rent growth would be high fours, low fives for the for the balance of the full year.
As you know, we are [47] through the first half. The path forward from here is going to be a story of balancing rate and occupancy. And so we're going to take as much rate as we can when we can take it and where we can take it, but we're going to be conscious of wanting to stay full.
So I think as I think about the levers we have available to pull in order to maximize revenue and NOI. We react to the signals we see in the market. We tried to lean in and be aggressive where we can, but at the same time, if we need to give it a little bit too to stay full and keep driving revenue and NOI contribution, that's what we'll do.

Operator

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Austin Wurschmidt

I appreciate you taking the follow-up as well as just kind of a thought around being transparent and just confidence in the underlying business I guess it's just not providing a July update, maybe sends a little bit of a different message.
And so trying to understand what gives you the confidence around renewal rate growth reaccelerating during what is the seasonally slower part of the year? You highlighted, I think mid 6% to 7%- plus from August to October. So maybe just help us understand what you expect to achieve relative to, right, because there has been some giveback on the assets versus what was achieved here within recent months?

Charles Young

Charles, look, there's always a little bit of a spread between what we ask and what we call in and it can be 100 basis points would be 200 basis points. It goes back and forth we've never if we're in a month and we're only into 25th, we've never given exact numbers on kind of where we are just still time left. But what I can say is, you know, as we looked at kind of the June May to June, we're seeing similar trend.
We kind of peaked out, as I talked about on the new lease side in May and June at 3.8, 3.7 July is going to, you know, moderate slightly as we get into seasonality on the new lease side, some renewals are far off from where we are in June, may be down a little bit like we talked about because of the loss to lease and the spread.
But we expect that those renewals will come up over time. So as we talked about, we again, we went into the ending the quarter at 97.5% blend. We're going in the seasonality still seeing good demand. We have a few markets that are softening. We have some markets that are really strong. We talked about Chicago, we talked about Selco. What we're seeing in, so flow, even Atlanta has really strong kind of rate growth at this point in the kind of top half of where we are.
So look, there is a we're in a position that we want to go into the summer like this coming in at 97.5%, we'll find that kind of normal moderation of occupancy over a couple of months and everything will kind of pop back up. And we think the renewals that are two thirds of what we do will start to come back. So I like the position that we're in.
We saw a little bit of moderation and seasonality show up a little earlier than we expected. And you know, other than that, things are still robust demand is there. We're getting the leads and we'll keep pushing and driving towards revenue.

Operator

This completes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Dallas Tanner for any closing remarks.

Dallas Tanner

We appreciate all the support and look forward to seeing people at the call conferences. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. You may disconnect.